NOW IS THE TIME!!!
(Last updated 10/20/2020)
If you haven't made any donations to Senate candidates yet, the wait is over! As I write this, there are 16 days left until the election, and candidates need money NOW to make crucial ad buys and set up GOTV activity! So read, pick your candidates to support, and make your donations!
I have narrowed the list of competitive races somewhat. The bad news is that, IMHO, there are still 14 competitive races. The GOOD news is --- THERE ARE STILL 14 COMPETITIVE RACES!!! No, Democrats won't win them all --- but only two of the 14 seats are currently held by Democrats, which means the probability of Democrats flipping the Senate is quite good.
Before getting to those races, I will just mention that two of the seats I count as safely Democratic are currently held by Republicans. I don't think these candidates actually need more support, but if you want to leave nothing to chance, you can donate to John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Mark Kelly in Arizona.
Races are listed in order, based on where I think donations will do the most good.
As always, if you just want to throw some money at the Senate races and let someone else figure out how to spend it, ActBlue is the right way to do that.
Pro Tips: Clicking on the name of the state will take you to the most recent polling data available on the race at FiveThirtyEight.com. An asterisk (*) appears before the candidate whose party currently holds the seat. An (O) before a candidate's name means the seat is an open seat.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Democrat: Barbara Bollier | Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018. Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week. He's also anti-choice and a climate-change denier. There's not a lot of public polling available in this race, but it appears to be pretty close to even. It's not drawing a lot of national attention, and advertising dollars go further in Kansas. UPDATE: Two polls out on October 22. One shows the race as even, the other gives Marshall a 12-point lead. :shrug: |
| *(O) Republican: Roger Marshall | ||
| Georgia | Democrat: Jon Ossoff | In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district. Polling in this race is chaotic. On October 14 alone, 3 separate polls were released showing Ossoff anyhwere from +6 to -3. Perdue recently appeared to engage in race-baiting of Kamala Harris. UPDATE: A poll released on October 20 shows Perdue and Ossoff tied (with TEN PERCENT undecided!). UPDATE: Two polls released on October 22 each give Ossoff a 5-point lead. |
| *Republican: David Perdue | ||
| Montana | Democrat: Steve Bullock | Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times. Two polls of this race were published on October 7, one showing Bullock with a 1-point lead, and another showing him 9 points behind. A poll published on October 14 shows Bullock with a 2-point lead! UPDATE: A new poll on 10/19 shows Daines with a 2-point lead. |
| *Republican: Steve Daines | ||
| Alaska | Democrat: Al Gross | Although he ran in and won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent. He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. Sullivan was recently caught up in an environmental scandal, which Gross is hoping to make hay on. On October 15 and 16, three polls were released showing Gross anywhere from +1 to -8. This is another case where the race is close, it's not getting a lot of national attention, and your advertising dollar goes farther. UPDATE: A poll published on 10/18 shows Gross with a 1-point lead. UPDATE: An October 22 poll gives Sullivan a 3-point lead. |
| *Republican: Dan Sullivan | ||
| Michigan | *Democrat: Gary Peters | Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent. This race IS getting a lot of national attention, as Republicans believe this is one of only two Democrat-held seats they can flip. UPDATE: A poll published on 10/19 shows Peters with a 6-point lead. UPDATE: Two polls on October 21 give Peters a 5-point lead --- and then another poll on October 22 gives JAMES a 5-point lead. |
| Republican: John James | ||
| North Carolina | Democrat: Cal Cunningham | Tillis promised to support the "well-qualified and conservative jurist president Trump will nominate" the day after RBG died --- and a full week before even knowing who the nominee was. It turns out that Cunningham had a brief affair with a married woman which was recently exposed. This does appear to have hurt him in the polls a bit, but he still seems to be leading by low single digits. UPDATE: Five new polls released October 21 show Cunningham with anything from a 0 to 6-point lead. |
| *Republican: Thom Tillis | ||
| Texas | Democrat: MJ Hegar | Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided. A poll published on October 16, after Hegar had a strong debate performance, shows Cornyn's lead cut from 9 points to 3. UPDATE: Another poll on October 19 matches Cornyn's 3-point lead, but another one on October 21 shows Cornyn leading by 8. UPDATE: A new poll on October 22 gives Cornyn a 6-point lead. |
| *Republican: John Cornyn | ||
| South Carolina | Democrat: Jaime Harrison | Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog. The final debate between Harrison and Graham got cancelled when Graham refused to take a COVID test before the debate. |
| *Republican: Lindsey Graham | ||
| Iowa | Democrat: Theresa Greenfield | While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking. Greenfield's polling lead has been holding fairly steady in the low single digits, and that's only likely to improve after Ernst had a noteworthy debate gaffe this past week. UPDATE: Five new polls were released on October 22, showing anything from a 6-point lead for Greenfield to a 4-point lead for Ernst. |
| *Republican: Joni Ernst | ||
| Maine | Democrat: Sara Gideon | Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him. Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go. Collins provided a crucial vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh in 2018. More recently, a story broke that Susan Collins' PAC made donations to two state candidates who support QAnon. |
| *Republican: Susan Collins | ||
| Kentucky | Democrat: Amy McGrath | McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell. There's been no public polling on this race in nearly a month, but it's likely McGrath cut into McConnell's 7-point lead after McConnell broke into hysterical laughter when challenged on his handling of the #TrumpVirus UPDATE: Apparently McConnell's intransigence and laughter haven't hurt him at all. A poll on October 22 gives him a 9-point lead. |
| *Republican: Mitch McConnell | ||
| Alabama | *Democrat: Doug Jones | As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent. But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment. Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud. A report just broke (October 15) that Tuberville's foundation for veterans actually paid veterans' groups FAR less money than it took in. Polling in this race looks promising, showing an 18-point Tuberville lead on September 22, down to a 12-point Tuberville lead on October 5, down to a 1-point JONES lead on October 16. While this most recent poll is no doubt an outlier, it DOES suggest that the race is tightening. UPDATE: On October 20, another poll gives Tuberville a 15 point lead. What's up with that October 16 poll? |
| Republican: Tommy Tuberville | ||
| Georgia | Democrat: Raphael Warnock | There may be something special happening in this race. Warnock's polling has improved dramatically lately, and the incumbent Senator he's running against is likely guilty of insider trading. November 3 is effectively a primary in this race, with several candidates running from each party. So it's almost certain that NO candidate will win a majority of the votes on November 3. However --- with multiple polls showing Warnock beating both leading GOP candidates, he's clearly the Democrat to support. |
| *Republican: Kelly Loeffler | ||
| Mississippi | Democrat: Mike Espy | Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate. There is limited polling in this race, but it is fascinating. Back in March, a Tyson Group poll showed Hyde-Smith with a 26-point lead. Another Tyson Group poll at the end of August shows Hyde-Smith's lead down to a single point. National Democrats have seen fit to pour some resources into this race. |
| *Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith |
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