COVID19 Update - Day 234

US Tests: 128,049,279*

US Cases: 8,987,631*

US Deaths: 221,356*

Worldwide Cases: 45,477,552*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,187,023*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

It gets steadily worse.  This past week was the worst yet:

The outlook for the pandemic continues to worsen, and many areas of the United States are experiencing their worst weeks yet. The country reported a record of more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases in the past week.

It’s not just a few areas driving the surge, as was the case early on. Half of U.S. counties saw new cases peak during the past month. Almost a third saw a record in the past week.

In the Upper Midwest and Mountain West, records are being smashed almost daily, and in some counties as much as 5 percent of the population has tested positive for the virus to date.

A not-so-bold prediction: Next week will be even worse. 

COVID19 Update - Day 233

US Tests: 126,972,115*

US Cases: 8,890,551*

US Deaths: 220,423*

Worldwide Cases: 44,906,565*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,179,267*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

While the Superspreader-In-Chief continues to hold rallies, thus literally doing all in his power to personally exacerbate the pandemic, we're starting to see truly catastrophic surges of the #TrumpVirus in various parts of the country.

Much of the midwest is a disaster area, with the Dakotas leading the nation in new infections per capita (Sturgis, anyone?).  And some states are reaching the breaking point:

With new coronavirus cases shattering records on a daily basis, Utah’s hospitals are expected to begin rationing care in a week or two.

That’s the prediction of Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, who said administrators of the state’s hospitals confronted Gov. Gary Herbert on Thursday with a grim list: Criteria they propose doctors should use if they are forced to decide which patients can stay in overcrowded intensive care units.

Under the criteria, which would require Herbert’s approval, patients who are getting worse despite receiving intensive care would be moved out first. In the event that two patients' conditions are equal, the young get priority over the old, since older patients are more likely to die.

Just so we're clear on this --- pretty soon, doctors in Utah will have to decide to let some patients die, because hospitals will be overrun with #TrumpVirus patients.

The situation isn't as bad in Wisconsin, but it's still pretty dire:

Wisconsin will open a field hospital for COVID-19 patients Wednesday on the grounds of the Wisconsin State Fair to help hospitals around the state that are strained by increased hospitalizations from the disease. The move comes more than five months after Gov. Tony Evers laid the groundwork for such a facility in late April by issuing an emergency order.

Last week, when the opening of the alternate care facility at State Fair Park in West Allis was announced, officials said up to 50 patients could initially be transferred to the site, which is designed for patients who need limited care as they recover from COVID-19 but still aren’t well enough to go home. As the site scales up, it could eventually treat up to 530 patients. 

"It’s an alternative to a hospital setting. So a patient would be transferred, potentially from a Fox Valley hospital, down to the alternate care facility," said Deb Standridge, CEO of the Wisconsin State Fair Park Alternative Care Facility, during an Oct. 7 media briefing.

Standridge said teenage as well as elderly patients who have been hospitalized for two days or less will recover at the facility, which has supplemental oxygen, IV treatments and other medications.

The alternative care facility is designed to help hospitals around the state manage a record number of patients at a time when many facilities also have staff shortages due to COVID-19 exposure or illness.

At Bellin Health in northeastern Wisconsin, space was so tight that some patients were treated in hallways, while the health system was also trying to shore up its workforce.

This is just a sample of what we'll be seeing for the rest of 2020.  Think of this, when you see that vile asshole staging another one of his super spreader, ego-boosting, fascist rallies. 

COVID19 Update - Day 232

US Tests: 125,875,621*

US Cases: 8,802,099*

US Deaths: 219,374*

Worldwide Cases: 44,386,621*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,172,684*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The White House can't get its messaging straight.  I mean, try to contain your surprise, I guess.  But just three days ago, Trump's Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, said that "We're not going to control the pandemic".

Now, just three days later, the White House declared victory:

The White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy has listed “ending the COVID-19 pandemic” as one of the top achievements of President Donald Trump’s first term, in a stunning distortion of reality as the nation shatters infection records.

The baffling claim came in a press release published Tuesday, that announced a new document highlighting the Trump administration’s strides to advance science and technology. 

According to the press release, the new document lauds the Trump administration’s defeat of the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that Trump “has taken decisive actions to engage scientists and health professionals in academia, industry, and government to understand, treat, and defeat the disease.”

The false statement follows reporting last week that the United States broke records for the number of new coronavirus cases tallied in a single day and as the virus surges across a number of states while medical facilities bend under the weight of rising hospitalizations for COVID-19.

During the 2016 campaign, Trump famously said that once he was president, the country would be sick and tired of winning.  At the time, I didn't understand that when he said "winning", he meant "having our collective ass handed to us".

In which case, he's right.  We've had a LOT of "winning" in the past 4 years, and I'm definitely sick and tired of it.

COVID19 Update - Day 231

US Tests: 124,999,883*

US Cases: 8,723,438*

US Deaths: 218,349*

Worldwide Cases: 43,894,430*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,165,432*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Today, we are reinforcing common sense.  Because frustratingly, that's a thing I find we need to do with this administration.  By way of Talking Points Memo, a study by Vanderbilt University supports an idea that anyone with any sense already knows --- wearing a mask is an effective way to reduce deaths.

(Prepare yourself for some eye-catching graphics!)

COVID19 Update - Day 230

US Tests: 124,117,892*

US Cases: 8,660,366*

US Deaths: 217,418*

Worldwide Cases: 43,444,797*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,158,882*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I think the acronym you're searching for is --- FTG:

President Donald Trump argued on Monday morning that it ought to be against the law for the news media to cover the pandemic ahead of the elections as the COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. surpasses 225,000.

“We have made tremendous progress with the China Virus, but the Fake News refuses to talk about it this close to the Election,” he tweeted. “COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!”

Amid his failure to address the pandemic, Trump has publicly griped several times about the media reporting on COVID-19, even going as far as calling CNN “dumb bastards” for doing so.

“You turn on CNN, that’s all they cover,” he ranted during a campaign rally in Arizona last week. “COVID, COVID, pandemic, COVID, COVID, COVID. You know why? They’re trying to talk everybody out of voting. People aren’t buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards.”

The President went on a similar tirade at another rally several days later in North Carolina.

“All you hear is COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID,” he complained. “That’s all they put on, because they want to scare the hell out of everyone.”

Meanwhile, the White House has admitted that it’s given up on trying to contain the virus.

"My response to the pandemic has been so horrifyingly awful that it should be illegal for the media to report it" is certainly an unusual choice of closing argument.

COVID19 Update - Day 229

US Tests: 123,068,899*

US Cases: 8,597,312*

US Deaths: 217,023*

Worldwide Cases: 42,886,463*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,152,323*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Filed under shocking, but not surprising:

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows off-handedly told CNN on Sunday that the Trump administration is “not going to control” the COVID-19 pandemic that has killed nearly 225,000 Americans and has now reached Vice President Mike Pence’s orbit in what appears to be a new COVID-19 outbreak in the White House.

“We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas,” Meadows said on CNN on Sunday morning.

CNN’s Jake Tapper then pressed Meadows on why the country won’t get the COVID-19 pandemic under control.

Meadows replied that it’s “because it is a contagious virus just like the flu” and that the Trump administration is “making efforts to contain it.”

“What we need to do is make sure that we have the proper mitigation factors, whether it’s therapies or vaccines or treatments to make sure that people don’t die from this,” Meadows said.

Put more succinctly, America is now 7 months into a global pandemic which has killed 217,000 Americans, and the White House still has no plan.

They don't even have a plan to keep it out of the White House, it seems.  First, several members of the White House (including Trump and Melania) caught the virus at Amy Coney Barrett's coming out party last month.   And today, we learned that five people in Mike Pence's office have tested positive, including Pence's Chief of Staff.

Recall that Pence is nominally in charge of leading the nation's response to the #TrumpVirus.

In personal news --- shortly after posting this, I received news that my son's #TrumpVirus test came back negative!

COVID19 Update - Day 228

US Tests: 122,104,227*

US Cases: 8,531,899*

US Deaths: 216,646*

Worldwide Cases: 42,532,198*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,148,943*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Yes, the spread is getting worse.  As always, we would do well to listen to the experts.  The never-controversial Anthony Fauci has raised the stakes, stating for the first time that there should be a national mask mandate:

“There’s going to be a difficulty enforcing it, but if everyone agrees that this is something that’s important and they mandate it and everybody pulls together and says, you know, we’re going to mandate it but let’s just do it, I think that would be a great idea to have everybody do it uniformly,” the public health expert said.

The comments come after Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden at a campaign event in Delaware on Friday said that he would implement a national mask mandate.

“As president I will mandate mask wearing in all federal buildings and all interstate transportation because masks save lives – period,” Biden said. “Wearing masks is not a political statement, it is a scientific imperative.” 

In July, the White House opposed legislation to mandate masks for workers and passengers on airlines and public transit, suggesting such a rule would be “overly restrictive.” It added at the time that “such decisions should be left to states, local governments, transportation systems, and public health leaders.”

President Trump has a long record of mocking masks, even recently promoting a misleading anti-mask talking point during a televised NBC town hall event, that falsely claims most people who wear face coverings end up contracting coronavirus.

It appears that Fauci's motivation for making this statement was the all-time record number of new cases in the U.S. yesterday (83,010) --- which was followed up by the SECOND-most new cases today (82,668). 

On a personal note --- The two of you who read this site regularly may recall that my son's college roommate tested positive for the #TrumpVirus on Wednesday.  He lives in an off-campus apartment with two of his friends.  The friend who tested positive has since moved into a quarantine space on-campus, and his other roommate received a negative test result Thursday.  My son was tested Thursday(?) --- at any rate, he was expecting a result today, but didn't receive one.

Since it appears that he and his remaining roommate will need to quarantine for some time no matter what, his mom and I drove up there and left a bunch of supplies with them.  (Note: We did not go in the apartment.  We remained outside, we spoke to him for less than 10 minutes, we maintained social distance, and we were all wearing masks).

We made sure he understands that even if his test result is negative, he needs to test again in 5 days before he can consider himself out of the woods.  FWIW, he seemed to be in fine health --- but it's always possible he's an asymptomatic carrier.

Fun times.

COVID19 Update - Day 227

US Tests: 121,059,423*

US Cases: 8,449,231*

US Deaths: 215,761*

Worldwide Cases: 42,114,524*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,143,291*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Speaking as a Minnesota resident, this is horrifying:

The coronavirus epidemic in Wisconsin is so bad that, earlier this month, the state opened field hospitals to take on a wave of cases and deaths that officials feared would overwhelm the health care system.

The US has one of the worst Covid-19 outbreaks in the world, and Wisconsin has one of the worst outbreaks within the US. Only the Dakotas and Montana have higher rates of daily new cases. Wisconsin’s outbreak also shows no signs of abating: Since the beginning of October, the seven-day average of daily new coronavirus cases has risen by almost 40 percent. Covid-19 deaths have increased by more than 95 percent over the month.

. . .

But what makes Wisconsin unique is the role political polarization has played. It’s not just that its voters are divided enough to make Wisconsin a swing state in presidential elections. The state government is also divided, and that’s had clear consequences: Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, has repeatedly tried to enact new restrictions and policies to combat Covid-19, only to have them threatened or overturned by Republican lawmakers.

It was a Republican-controlled Supreme Court that forced Wisconsin’s reopening in the first place by striking down Evers’s stay-at-home order. (Some local governments imposed new restrictions, but others didn’t.) It’s the Republican-controlled legislature that’s now threatening to repeal the state’s mask mandate. And President Donald Trump has held rallies in the state — even as its caseload grew — downplaying the pandemic by claiming it’s “rounding the corner” and calling for the state to “open it up.”

Experts argue that the state needs a united front to take down the coronavirus — and, in particular, the state’s Republican leaders have to accept what scientists have repeatedly said on Covid-19. But, for now, the public isn’t getting consistent leadership or messaging. Some GOP lawmakers, like Trump, continue to push for the opposite, calling into question the need for social distancing and masking even as the evidence supports both.

For Wisconsin, that’s not only helped make its coronavirus epidemic one of the current worst in the US but threatens to keep the outbreak going. Until state lawmakers and the public take action, there’s no reason to think Wisconsin’s coronavirus cases and deaths will subside. It’s yet another lesson in the need for continued vigilance against the coronavirus.

Republicans really seem to believe that if they ignore the #TrumpVirus steadfastly enough, it will go away.  There are even some #TrumpDeathCult pundits (no, I won't link to them) who appear to believe that a fruitful line of attack against Biden is to warn people that if Biden wins --- he might actually take steps to get the pandemic under control.

Death by coronavirus is an appropriate fate for these people. 

COVID19 Update - Day 226

US Tests: 119,936,082*

US Cases: 8,366,221*

US Deaths: 214,845*

Worldwide Cases: 41,584,690*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,135,767*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Not to be a broken record, but we're just at the leading edge of the worst wave of the #TrumpVirus to date:

The US is now well into the dreaded fall surge, fueled by indoor socializing, outbreaks at schools and pandemic fatigue.

. . .

Florida, which recently reopened many businesses to full capacity but with no mask requirements, reported its highest single-day increase of new cases in more than two months: 5,557 on Thursday. The statewide Covid-19 death toll rose to 16,470.

Oklahoma reported a record-high 1,628 new cases Thursday, the highest daily number of new cases since the pandemic began.

Ohio broke its record Wednesday and again Thursday, with more than 2,400 new infections reported. "Of the 10 highest days of new cases reported, eight have occurred in the past nine days," Gov. Mike DeWine said.

And in New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy said Wednesday that hospitalizations were the highest they have been in three months.

It's not just the soaring numbers of new cases that's concerning. It's also the rising numbers of deaths and hospitalizations -- which could reduce care for patients who don't even have Covid-19.

"Hospitals are starting to fill up," Utah Gov. Gary Herbert said Thursday.

Yes, everyone is sick and tired of masks and social distancing and not being able to socialize as usual.  But to borrow a phrase, the #TrumpVirus doesn't care about your feelings. 

COVID19 Update - Day 225

US Tests: 118,936,386*

US Cases: 8,289,661*

US Deaths: 213,672*

Worldwide Cases: 41,088,902*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,128,701*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

If you're looking for some happy news --- you've come to the wrong place.  Tonight, it's ALL bad news.

First up --- although we've long-known that hydroxychloroquine is just another name for snake oil (which didn't stop Donald Trump from singing its praises), it now appears that remdesivir is useless as well:

These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.

And also --- when I wrote yesterday that my son and his housemates all tested negative for the #TrumpVirus, it turns out I was making some incorrect assumptions.

What my son actually TOLD me was "Everyone tested negative we're good".  But apparently, when he said "Everyone tested", he meant everyone EXCEPT his housemates and himself.

One of his housemates got a positive test result today.  Apparently he has completely lost his sense of smell.

My son's other housemate is getting tested tomorrow.  My son isn't getting tested until Friday (because reasons).

Of course, they're college kids, the three of them live in a shoe, and even though I sent him there with a collection of 10 masks, I'm guessing they are only lightly used.  So if my son's test DOES come back negative, it will be a miracle --- and meaningless, anyway, since his housemate is positive.

I'm going to keep my fingers crossed that my son ends up being one of those 19-year-olds who is asymptomatic, or has very mild symptoms.

COVID19 Update - Day 224

US Tests: 118,180,949*

US Cases: 8,232,285*

US Deaths: 212,678*

Worldwide Cases: 40,564,075*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,123,794*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Some shocking news about young(ish) people and the #TrumpVirus.  It turns out that people aged 25-44 are actually the hardest hit by at least one metric:

The coronavirus pandemic has left about 299,000 more people dead in the United States than would be expected in a typical year, two-thirds of them from covid-19 and the rest from other causes, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Tuesday.

The CDC said the novel coronavirus, which causes covid-19, has taken a disproportionate toll on Latinos and Blacks, as previous analyses have noted. But the CDC also found, surprisingly, that it has struck 25- to 44-year-olds very hard: Their “excess death” rate is up 26.5 percent over previous years, the largest change for any age group.

It is not clear whether that spike is caused by the shift in covid-19 deaths toward younger people between May and August or deaths from other causes, the CDC said.

Also, an update from Sunday, when I published an email from my son (who's at college) which said, in part: ". . . WE'RE ALL at high risk of getting Covid-19. Pardon my french here, but it seems that we're kinda fucked." 

He and his housemates all took tests today, and apparently they all tested negative.  So, if they can just keep from catching the virus for another 5 weeks, then they can all make it home safe for Thanksgiving.

UPDATE: I just noticed that in my original post, I wrote that "they all tested positive".  This was a mistake on my part; I meant to write that they all tested negative.

But as it turns out, my son wasn't being entirely truthful with me.

COVID19 Update - Day 223

US Tests: 117,366,770*

US Cases: 8,171,703*

US Deaths: 211,846*

Worldwide Cases: 40,344,310*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,117,539*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Imagine, if you will, that our planet was afflicted with a deadly pandemic.  And further imagine that the United States was fortunate enough to have a highly-respected immunologist who has served every U.S. president for the past 36 years, with more than a half-century of experience in the field of infectious diseases.

If the United States were fortunate enough to be able to call on such a person, it's difficult to imagine that we wouldn't call on him to lead us through the challenges the pandemic presents.  It's even more difficult to imagine that person (and his family) would be subjected to death threats, simply because he advises the president to the best of his ability in order to keep the country safe.

And it's completely impossible to imagine that the president himself is the reason for the death threats.  And yet, here we are:

On Monday, Trump continued throwing more punches at Fauci via Twitter as he complained about the nation’s top infectious disease expert’s interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that aired the night before. The President tweeted that Fauci “seems to get more airtime than anybody since the late, great, Bob Hope.”

Later Monday, Fauci was asked during an interview on KNX 1070 about his response to Trump’s reported campaign conference call when he asserted that people are “tired of” Fauci.

Fauci declined to comment directly on Trump’s reported remark, calling “all that other stuff” a “distraction” and that he “would really prefer to stay away from that.”

Fauci emphasized he did not want to get involved in a “me against the President” discussion because it’s a distraction amid the COVID-19 pandemic that has killed more than 215,000 Americans thus far.

“That’s the only thing I really care about. That other stuff, it’s like in ‘The Godfather:’ nothing personal, strictly business as far as I’m concerned,” Fauci said. “I just want to do my job and take care of the people of this country.”

When asked about how he mentioned during his interview with “60 Minutes” on Sunday that he and his family are under protection due to threats, Fauci replied that he’s worried less about himself than the harassment that his wife and children face.

“I have federal agents guarding me, but there are people out that continually harass my family,” Fauci said.

Trump isn't merely a bully, a white supremacist, a misogynist, and epically corrupt.  He's a national security risk, in more ways than one.

Casting a vote for another four years of this is one of the stupidest things a person can do.

COVID19 Update - Day 222

US Tests: 116,279,348*

US Cases: 8,113,984*

US Deaths: 211,384*

Worldwide Cases: 39,876,674*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,112,535*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The walls are closing in.

Tonight's update is personal.  I have been fortunate, thus far, that the retirement community where my parents live appears to be remarkably well-run.  Until about a week ago, there were only 3 reported cases of the #TrumpVirus in the past 7 months --- and one of those was a resident who brought it back to the facility after having surgery in a hospital.

It would appear that my parents' luck has run out.

They are not themselves infected.  However, there are now two additional infections among the residents, and --- most disturbingly --- SIX cases among the staff, including the facility director.  All of these cases were just confirmed in the last week or two.

Fortunately, my parents can quarantine --- they hate it, of course, like everyone else, but there's nothing else to do.  And provided all of the affected individuals are also appropriately quarantined, they will probably be all right.  And although we will probably never know how these 6 workers got infected, it was probably the result of crap like this:

Parker’s Barbecue in Wilson found itself in the news this week after a customer complained about employees not wearing masks, as first reported by WRAL.

Following that report, a Facebook group of Parker’s supporters was started and has grown to 24,000 members. According to the group’s public Facebook page, fans plan to meet at the restaurant this Saturday for lunch, with many vowing not to wear a mask.

The COVID-19 pandemic is now entering its seventh month, with North Carolina reporting more than 200,000 cases and more than 3,500 deaths.

It gets worse.  Because tonight I heard from my son, who's now in his second year of college.  He goes to school in a remote corner of Minnesota, and so the campus probably thought they had nothing to worry about.  I thought they were wrong, and that they would be shutting down in-person instruction within 2 or 3 weeks of the start of classes on August 19.

I'll admit it took longer than I thought it would.  And so far as I can tell, the college still has no plans to shut down in-person instruction --- but they probably should.  Here's an edited version of an email I received from my son tonight:

A freshman on the women's soccer team tested positive for Covid late last week, and now her and a couple of her close friends are now in quarantine. They were moved to the on-campus apartments, which give them access to a bed, shower, sink, microwave, and oven with stove top without having to be in contact with other people. I'm sure they still have to get other people to bring them food and groceries though.

Since the women's team and the men's team do a lot of stuff together (go to parties and pregames together), there's a chance we might get Covid-19. Also, someone who was over at my house on Wednesday tested positive for Covid-19, my house is at a higher risk of getting Covid-19. ALSO, a girl that one of my teammates knows, who lives in the men's soccer house, tested positive for Covid-19, and he wasn't feeling too good for a while there, so WE'RE ALL at high risk of getting Covid-19. Pardon my french here, but it seems that we're kinda fucked.

Trump doesn't deserve all of the blame for this --- only about 80%, maybe. 

COVID19 Update - Day 221

US Tests: 115,469,073*

US Cases: 8,067,332*

US Deaths: 211,014*

Worldwide Cases: 39,608,809*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,108,800*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I'm getting a late start tonight, thanks to an epic Among Us game (and post-battle discussion) I just finished with some folks online.  So I will simply point everyone to the always-excellent Lawyers, Guns & Money blog, and these thoughts of Erik Loomis:

The first wave in April led to the national lockdown. The second in the summer at least mostly forced the recalcitrant states to force people into wearing masks and engage in at least the most basic precautions. And now? Nada.

I guess I’m not surprised by this. I thought from the beginning that Americans were always going to have very listen patience for getting in the way of their lives. They went along for awhile and now less so. Here in Rhode Island, which remains having low daily cases on a national basis but where it is still rising, from about a 1% positive rate a month or so ago to around 3% now, it is not from schools or restaurants (at least according to the governor). It’s from social gatherings. Families are getting back together. Young people are partying at houses. Older people are having dinner parties. And people aren’t masking at any of this. It’s really hard to see what to do about this. This Ed Yong story is from September, but I think has value today to think about this. He goes over a number of problems, ranging from our technological fetishism to solve all our problems to our disastrous political leadership.

I’m not real sure what a Biden presidency does to make this better, not at this point. A national lockdown starting January 20 is almost certainly a political nonstarter that would lead to a huge burning of political capital that may well forestall any other change happening. Sure, yes, we can once again have faith in the CDC to provide quality information, that vaccines will not be rushed for political reasons, etc. And this stuff is very important. It will help. But it seems far too late to lock down and start over.

COVID19 Update - Day 220

US Tests: 114,465,571*

US Cases: 8,007,690*

US Deaths: 210,217*

Worldwide Cases: 39,266,777*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,103,415*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

It just keeps getting worse.  Last week, we had the first confirmed case of #TrumpVirus reinfection in the U.S.:

Does immunity protect an individual from disease on reinfection? The answer is not necessarily, because patients from Nevada and Ecuador had worse disease outcomes at reinfection than at first infection. It is important to keep in mind that the reinfection cases in general are being picked up because of symptoms and are biased towards detection of symptomatic cases. Due to the paucity of broad testing and surveillance, we do not know how frequently reinfection occurs among individuals who recovered from their first infection.

I'm starting to believe the people who are saying that we'll never return to normal. 

COVID19 Update - Day 219

US Tests: 113,419,159*

US Cases: 7,939,566*

US Deaths: 209,340*

Worldwide Cases: 38,825,968*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,096,833*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Yet more evidence that Trump's 'response' to the virus has been uniquely horrible.

During this pandemic, people in the United States are dying at rates unparalleled elsewhere in the world.

A new report in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds that in the past five months, per capita deaths in the U.S., both from COVID-19 and other causes, have been far greater than in 18 other high-income countries.

"It's shocking. It's horrible," says Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel, a professor of health policy and medical ethics at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the authors of the study.

"The United States really has done remarkably badly compared to other countries," he says. "I mean, remarkably badly."

'American exceptionalism' used to be a GOOD thing. 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 218

US Tests: 112,501,414*

US Cases: 7,876,324*

US Deaths: 208,387*

Worldwide Cases: 38,423,591*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,091,123*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Republicans care about power.  Not America.  If you're still looking for a reason to help Democrats retake control of the Senate, this should give you the only reason you need.  It appears that McConnell and the GOP-led Senate don't actually want to pass another stimulus bill to help lift the #TrumpVirus-ravaged economy --- because any bill passed now will only help President Biden:

Republicans almost certainly suspect Trump will lose even with a big stimulus and already hope to put an incoming President Joe Biden in a fiscal straitjacket, saddling him with the terrible politics of a grueling recovery.

A big package now under a GOP president would make that harder to get away with. That’s bad enough, but the evolving strategy here may be worse than this suggests. The calculation is probably not just about avoiding the hypocrisy of spending big now and embracing austerity under a Democratic president.

It’s also likely that a big package now would put the economy in a somewhat better position early next year, when Biden (should he win) would take over. This, too, is probably what Republicans want to avoid.

Indeed, as Eric Levitz points out, if Republicans can scuttle a robust package now, that would hand Biden a “deepening recession.” If Republicans hold the Senate and can block big stimulus measures at that point, Levitz continues, “Biden’s presidency would be over before it starts.”

And so, when McConnell chortled with glee at this week’s debate in Kentucky about the failure to pass more aid at a desperate national moment, it telegraphed what’s coming. And we’ve already lived through what happened when Republicans, led by McConnell, tried to cripple the recovery from a previous economic calamity that a Democratic president inherited from a Republican one.

Back then, McConnell calculated that if Republicans adopted a strategy of openly tailoring everything around the overarching goal of denying Barack Obama bipartisan support, Obama would take the blame for it. It’s likely McConnell is already thinking the same.

Politicians gonna politic.  That's true for both Republicans and Democrats.  Nevertheless, all members of Congress (as well as The Stain himself) were sent to Washington to do a job.

And when there are 8 million Americans sick with a deadly virus, and nearly 210,000 dead, unemployment at 8% and food insecurity at record highs, the politicians need to do their jobs and provide more stimulus.

But the Senate Republicans don't care.  They're already thinking about how to cripple the government to maximize the pain Americans suffer for the next 4 years.

So I'll ask you to do what you can to help kick these bastards out of the Senate.

COVID19 Update - Day 217

US Tests: 111,761,185*

US Cases: 7,817,857*

US Deaths: 207,557*

Worldwide Cases: 38,041,143*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,084,888*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Jesus.  Get ready:

As predicted, the US is now grappling with a new Covid-19 surge -- one that could overwhelm hospitals, kill thousands of Americans a day by January and leave even young survivors with long-term complications.

"We went down to the lowest point lately in early September, around 30,000-35,000 new cases a day. Now we're back up to (about) 50,000 new cases a day. And it's going to continue to rise," Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said Tuesday.

"This is the fall/winter surge that everyone was worried about. And now it's happening. And it's happening especially in the northern Midwest, and the Northern states are getting hit very hard -- Wisconsin, Montana, the Dakotas. But it's going to be nationally soon enough."

Across the country, more than 30 states have reported more Covid-19 cases this past week than they reported the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, sounded an alarm about certain states' test-positivity rates, saying they may be a good indicator that steeper climbs in case rates are ahead.

For the whole country, test positivity averaged 5.1% over the past week as of Tuesday. But in at least 13 states, the figure was above 10%: in Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

Obviously, Trump and his legions of vice-signaling, mask-denying #COVIDIOTS are responsible for making this crisis much worse than it needed to be.  But Trump is himself personally responsible for holding one superspreader event after another in the last weeks of the campaign, seemingly hell-bent on personally spreading the #TrumpVirus to infect and kill as many people as possible. 

COVID19 Update - Day 216

US Tests: 110,909,914*

US Cases: 7,770,673*

US Deaths: 206,881*

Worldwide Cases: 37,724,073*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,078,446*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Trump will forever be synonymous with the coronavirus.  He really does seem bound and determined to personally kill as many people with it as possible:

During a Sunday morning appearance on Fox News, for instance, Trump claimed without evidence that he’s “immune” to the virus, but didn’t answer a question about what precautions his campaign will take to try to keep people safe at his rallies. Along the same lines, during a separate Fox News appearance, Trump campaign official Lara Trump deflected questions about the safety of Trump holding in-person events.

The fact of the matter is it doesn’t appear Trump’s campaign plans to do much. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says large gatherings where it’s hard to maintain physical distance from others (like political rallies) present the “highest risk” of becoming spreading events, but the campaign’s response to questions about how they’re flouting government guidance has been to suggest the right of assembly trumps public health.

Rally attendees are still required to sign a waiver absolving the campaign of any responsibility if they contract Covid-19. And early images from Sanford indicate that there won’t be much social distancing or mask-wearing.

#TrumpVirus 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 215

US Tests: 109,978,606*

US Cases: 7,727,630*

US Deaths: 206,597*

Worldwide Cases: 37,395,029*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,075,750*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The next wave is here.  After a summer spent reopening schools, reopening businesses, reopening sports, refusing to wear masks, and basically behaving as if there were no pandemic going on, we're starting to see the predictable results:

What’s so worrisome is that no one state or region can be blamed for this new wave. Just 13 states have seen their number of new Covid-19 cases drop over the last two weeks, according to Covid Exit Strategy. Cases are up in all the others.

Raw case numbers can, of course, obscure important differences in population; 100 new cases means something different for California than it does for Wyoming. Experts will use another metric — new cases per million people — to gauge how saturated a given state is with Covid-19.

The goal would be to have fewer than 40 new cases per million people. But just three states — Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire — meet that threshold. Meanwhile, North Dakota (627 cases per million), South Dakota (596), Montana (474), and Wisconsin (434) are some of the states seeing very high levels of new infections.

As Vox’s German Lopez reported this week, just one state — Maine — meets all of the benchmarks established by experts for a state to consider its Covid-19 outbreak contained. And yet, most states have reopened many of the businesses that were closed in the spring: 40 or so states have reopened restaurants, bars, gyms, movie theaters, and nonessential retail.

“Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with,” Lopez wrote, explaining why experts were anticipating a new surge in cases. “Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire: It’s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there are still flames raging in parts of the forest and small embers practically everywhere. The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously.”

Just remember, it didn't have to be this way.  America could have performed a more or less COMPLETE shutdown early on, and then reopened safely, using quarantines and contact tracing to keep the #TrumpVirus in check.

Unfortunately, there were too many selfish and entitled people who believed that spreading a deadly disease was their God-given right.  And so, 8 months in, and after more than 200,000 deaths, we are no closer to beating the #TrumpVirus than we were in March.

Nice work, everyone! 

Take Back the Senate! (Even More Update!)

NOW IS THE TIME!!!

(Last updated 10/20/2020)

If you haven't made any donations to Senate candidates yet, the wait is over!  As I write this, there are 16 days left until the election, and candidates need money NOW to make crucial ad buys and set up GOTV activity!  So read, pick your candidates to support, and make your donations!

I have narrowed the list of competitive races somewhat.  The bad news is that, IMHO, there are still 14 competitive races.  The GOOD news is --- THERE ARE STILL 14 COMPETITIVE RACES!!!  No, Democrats won't win them all --- but only two of the 14 seats are currently held by Democrats, which means the probability of Democrats flipping the Senate is quite good.

Before getting to those races, I will just mention that two of the seats I count as safely Democratic are currently held by Republicans.  I don't think these candidates actually need more support, but if you want to leave nothing to chance, you can donate to John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Mark Kelly in Arizona.

Races are listed in order, based on where I think donations will do the most good.

As always, if you just want to throw some money at the Senate races and let someone else figure out how to spend it, ActBlue is the right way to do that.

Pro Tips: Clicking on the name of the state will take you to the most recent polling data available on the race at FiveThirtyEight.com.  An asterisk (*) appears before the candidate whose party currently holds the seat.  An (O) before a candidate's name means the seat is an open seat.

State	Candidates	Notes
Kansas	Democrat: Barbara Bollier	Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018. Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week.  He's also anti-choice and a climate-change denier. There's not a lot of public polling available in this race, but it appears to be pretty close to even.  It's not drawing a lot of national attention, and advertising dollars go further in Kansas. UPDATE: Two polls out on October 22.  One shows the race as even, the other gives Marshall a 12-point lead. :shrug:
	*(O) Republican: Roger Marshall
Georgia	Democrat: Jon Ossoff	In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district. Polling in this race is chaotic.  On October 14 alone, 3 separate polls were released showing Ossoff anyhwere from +6 to -3. Perdue recently appeared to engage in race-baiting of Kamala Harris. UPDATE: A poll released on October 20 shows Perdue and Ossoff tied (with TEN PERCENT undecided!). UPDATE: Two polls released on October 22 each give Ossoff a 5-point lead.
	*Republican: David Perdue
Montana	Democrat: Steve Bullock	Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times. Two polls of this race were published on October 7, one showing Bullock with a 1-point lead, and another showing him 9 points behind. A poll published on October 14 shows Bullock with a 2-point lead! UPDATE: A new poll on 10/19 shows Daines with a 2-point lead.
	*Republican: Steve Daines
Alaska	Democrat: Al Gross	Although he ran in and won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent.  He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. Sullivan was recently caught up in an environmental scandal, which Gross is hoping to make hay on. On October 15 and 16, three polls were released showing Gross anywhere from +1 to -8.  This is another case where the race is close, it's not getting a lot of national attention, and your advertising dollar goes farther. UPDATE: A poll published on 10/18 shows Gross with a 1-point lead. UPDATE: An October 22 poll gives Sullivan a 3-point lead.
	*Republican: Dan Sullivan
Michigan	*Democrat: Gary Peters	Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent. This race IS getting a lot of national attention, as Republicans believe this is one of only two Democrat-held seats they can flip. UPDATE: A poll published on 10/19 shows Peters with a 6-point lead. UPDATE: Two polls on October 21 give Peters a 5-point lead --- and then another poll on October 22 gives JAMES a 5-point lead.
	Republican: John James
North Carolina	Democrat: Cal Cunningham	Tillis promised to support the "well-qualified and conservative jurist president Trump will nominate" the day after RBG died --- and a full week before even knowing who the nominee was. It turns out that Cunningham had a brief affair with a married woman which was recently exposed.  This does appear to have hurt him in the polls a bit, but he still seems to be leading by low single digits. UPDATE: Five new polls released October 21 show Cunningham with anything from a 0 to 6-point lead.
	*Republican: Thom Tillis
Texas	Democrat: MJ Hegar	Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided. A poll published on October 16, after Hegar had a strong debate performance, shows Cornyn's lead cut from 9 points to 3. UPDATE: Another poll on October 19 matches Cornyn's 3-point lead, but another one on October 21 shows Cornyn leading by 8. UPDATE: A new poll on October 22 gives Cornyn a 6-point lead.
	*Republican: John Cornyn
South Carolina	Democrat: Jaime Harrison	Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog. The final debate between Harrison and Graham got cancelled when Graham refused to take a COVID test before the debate.
	*Republican: Lindsey Graham
Iowa	Democrat: Theresa Greenfield	While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking. Greenfield's polling lead has been holding fairly steady in the low single digits, and that's only likely to improve after Ernst had a noteworthy debate gaffe this past week. UPDATE: Five new polls were released on October 22, showing anything from a 6-point lead for Greenfield to a 4-point lead for Ernst.
	*Republican: Joni Ernst
Maine	Democrat: Sara Gideon	Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him.  Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go. Collins provided a crucial vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.  More recently, a story broke that Susan Collins' PAC made donations to two state candidates who support QAnon.
	*Republican: Susan Collins
Kentucky	Democrat: Amy McGrath	McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell. There's been no public polling on this race in nearly a month, but it's likely McGrath cut into McConnell's 7-point lead after McConnell broke into hysterical laughter when challenged on his handling of the #TrumpVirus UPDATE: Apparently McConnell's intransigence and laughter haven't hurt him at all.  A poll on October 22 gives him a 9-point lead.
	*Republican: Mitch McConnell
Alabama	*Democrat: Doug Jones	As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent.  But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment.  Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud. A report just broke (October 15) that Tuberville's foundation for veterans actually paid veterans' groups FAR less money than it took in. Polling in this race looks promising, showing an 18-point Tuberville lead on September 22, down to a 12-point Tuberville lead on October 5, down to a 1-point JONES lead on October 16.  While this most recent poll is no doubt an outlier, it DOES suggest that the race is tightening. UPDATE: On October 20, another poll gives Tuberville a 15 point lead.  What's up with that October 16 poll?
	Republican: Tommy Tuberville
Georgia	Democrat: Raphael Warnock	There may be something special happening in this race.  Warnock's polling has improved dramatically lately, and the incumbent Senator he's running against is likely guilty of insider trading. November 3 is effectively a primary in this race, with several candidates running from each party.  So it's almost certain that NO candidate will win a majority of the votes on November 3. However --- with multiple polls showing Warnock beating both leading GOP candidates, he's clearly the Democrat to support.
	*Republican: Kelly Loeffler
Mississippi	Democrat: Mike Espy	Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate. There is limited polling in this race, but it is fascinating.  Back in March, a Tyson Group poll showed Hyde-Smith with a 26-point lead.  Another Tyson Group poll at the end of August shows Hyde-Smith's lead down to a single point.  National Democrats have seen fit to pour some resources into this race.
	*Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith

COVID19 Update - Day 214

US Tests: 109,131,801*

US Cases: 7,680,854*

US Deaths: 206,133*

Worldwide Cases: 37,077,182*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,070,990*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I think we can safely call it the #TrumpVirus now.  Of course, he spent last weekend at Walter Reed, and presumably is STILL infected, since the White House won't tell us when his last negative test occurred.  But he returned to the White House Monday in blatant defiance of CDC guidelines:

Guidelines from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say people infected with coronavirus should isolate from others for at least 10 days after their symptoms appear, though Trump has blatantly disregarded recommendations from the CDC over the course of the pandemic.

Few believe Trump could be prevented from staging more photo-ops like he did on Sunday, when he emerged from the confines of Walter Reed in a black SUV to greet supporters standing on the roadside nearby. Afterward, Secret Service agents told CNN the episode demonstrated a disregard by the President for their health and safety.

He continued the practice on Monday when he arrived back to the White House. After saluting the helicopter and walking indoors without a mask, Trump could be seen returning outside with several people and a camera crew to apparently re-shoot his entrance into the house.

He is now a one-man super spreader.  And of course, his reckless behavior will no doubt be used as a model for other selfish idiots in the #TrumpDeathCult.  But that's just the latest chapter in the story of the Super Spreader in Chief.  Mother Jones has the full run-down here. 

COVID19 Update - Day 213

US Tests: 108,120,726*

US Cases: 7,623,648*

US Deaths: 205,470*

Worldwide Cases: 36,778,228*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,066,391*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

He sounds like a homeless man ranting on a street corner.  If he weren't the president, I'm pretty sure he would have been institutionalized by now.

The President has shifted from hyping a vaccine to the drug he himself was treated with: a monoclonal antibody treatment designed to prevent the virus from infecting human cells.

The huckster-in-chief’s little-noticed shift from a rushed vaccine to a new elixir comes as hopes for a pre-election vaccine began to fade this week when the FDA announced criteria for evaluating a shot that would push any approval past the November election.

“I think we should have [a vaccine] before the election, but frankly the politics gets involved,” Trump lamented in a video this week.

By Friday morning, Trump was pumping it up to Rush Limbaugh: “We have a cure. More than just a therapeutic, we have a cure.”

Regeneron’s cutting-edge drug isn’t a vaccine, nor is it a cure. It’s a treatment, and one that remains unproven, though promising.

But that hasn’t stopped Trump from touting it, and making himself Exhibit A for the false proposition that it’s a cure.

Despite what the #TrumpDeathCult wants you to believe, it is entirely appropriate for Nancy Pelosi and Congress to be making recommendations about invoking the 25th amendment. 

COVID19 Update - Day 212

US Tests: 107,107,138*

US Cases: 7,566,106*

US Deaths: 204,566*

Worldwide Cases: 36,431,251*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,060,773*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another day, another whistleblower.  This time a top scientist at the National Institutes of Health:

Rick Bright, a top government vaccine scientist who warned earlier this year that the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response had been politicized, took to CNN on Thursday to blast the President’s messaging on COVID-19 as “reckless and deadly.”

. . .

During an interview on CNN’s “The Lead” on Thursday, Bright ripped Trump’s “don’t be afraid of COVID” assertion that was issued shortly before the President’s departure from Walter Reed on Monday following his COVID-19 treatment at the military hospital.

“The messaging that President Trump gave to America and the world when he left the hospital about there is no need to be afraid of this virus is probably the most reckless and deadly piece of information I have ever heard,” Bright said.

Bright also took aim at Trump’s “irresponsible and reckless” suggestions of a COVID-19 vaccine approval in time for the November presidential election.

“He’s mentioned it on numerous occasions, that he wants the vaccine before the election,” Bright said. “There’s no rationale in scientific judgment to move that vaccine to meet that target date. He is not a scientist. He’s not a doctor. I say let the scientists do their job.”

Bright dismissed the notion of Trump rushing the approval of a COVID-19 as a sound effort to save lives.

The number of votes Trump deserves in 4 weeks is zero.  And I don't just mean zero electoral votes; I mean zero votes, period.

The fact that he will likely receive more than 60 million is a testament to the power of racism, short attention spans, and Fox News. 

COVID19 Update - Day 211

US Tests: 106,167,581*

US Cases: 7,511,236*

US Deaths: 203,591*

Worldwide Cases: 36,063,675*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,054,153*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The GOP has politicized science so extensively that scientists have had no choice but to respond.  First, it was Scientific American, who endorsed a candidate for president for the first time in 175 years when it endorsed Joe Biden.

Today, the New England Journal of Medicine chimed in:

The response of our nation’s leaders has been consistently inadequate. The federal government has largely abandoned disease control to the states. Governors have varied in their responses, not so much by party as by competence. But whatever their competence, governors do not have the tools that Washington controls. Instead of using those tools, the federal government has undermined them. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which was the world’s leading disease response organization, has been eviscerated and has suffered dramatic testing and policy failures. The National Institutes of Health have played a key role in vaccine development but have been excluded from much crucial government decision making. And the Food and Drug Administration has been shamefully politicized, appearing to respond to pressure from the administration rather than scientific evidence. Our current leaders have undercut trust in science and in government, causing damage that will certainly outlast them. Instead of relying on expertise, the administration has turned to uninformed “opinion leaders” and charlatans who obscure the truth and facilitate the promulgation of outright lies.

. . .

Anyone else who recklessly squandered lives and money in this way would be suffering legal consequences. Our leaders have largely claimed immunity for their actions. But this election gives us the power to render judgment. Reasonable people will certainly disagree about the many political positions taken by candidates. But truth is neither liberal nor conservative. When it comes to the response to the largest public health crisis of our time, our current political leaders have demonstrated that they are dangerously incompetent. We should not abet them and enable the deaths of thousands more Americans by allowing them to keep their jobs.

Any objective observer must recognize the significance of these two widely-respected, nonpartisan, scientific and medical journals strongly denouncing Trump and GOP leadership --- breaking with 175 and 208 years if tradition.

Obviously, these publications don't care about politics.  They care about science and the public health.  And that's why everyone who hasn't already drunk the #TrumpDeathCult kool-aid should listen.

COVID19 Update - Day 210

US Tests: 105,393,489*

US Cases: 7,460,634*

US Deaths: 202,675*

Worldwide Cases: 35,681,852*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,047,220*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

This should do wonders for the economy.  Trump has unilaterally ended negotiations on a badly-needed stimulus bill to prop up the economy during the pandemic.

The U.S. economy is facing new head winds. It contracted sharply earlier this year because of the pandemic, leading to massive layoffs and business closures.

The economy showed signs of a partial recovery in May and June, but businesses and households have struggled as the virus continues to infect thousands of Americans each day. Trump has sought to play up the economy’s recovery, often touting partial or incomplete information. That continued Tuesday, when he misstated the health of the U.S. economy during his string of tweets.

“Our Economy is doing very well,” he wrote. "The Stock Market is at record levels. JOBS and unemployment also coming back in record numbers.”

Even some of Trump’s top advisers have said that the economy is not doing well and that more assistance is needed. Further, the stock market is not at record levels, and it also doesn’t reflect the broader health of the economy. The unemployment rate has come down from its April peak of about 15 percent, but it is still at 7.9 percent, and millions are struggling to pay their bills, afford food and find jobs. The United States has recovered barely half of the jobs lost in March and April.

. . .

The spending package was supposed to send another round of $1,200 stimulus checks to millions of Americans, give the jobless new unemployment benefits, and provide a new round of small-business aid, help for the airline industry and a range of other measures.

. . .

The airline industry last week began furloughing more than 30,000 employees because government aid expired, and some surveys have found that as many as 40 percent of restaurants will close within six months without additional aid. Tens of millions of Americans who have lost their jobs will receive no federal unemployment supplement absent an additional package from Congress, draining the U.S. consumer market and a key source of stimulus. Personal incomes already dropped in August as the spring relief expired.

Powell issued a dire warning Tuesday about the potential consequences of Congress and the White House failing to pass an additional stimulus deal. “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Powell said.

In addition to dealing a devastating blow to the economy, this decision also effectively ends any hope of Trump getting the 'October surprise' he was so desperately hoping for --- a vaccine:

It dashes hopes for $6 billion that the Centers for Disease Control says it needs to distribute the vaccine, along with billions more requested to fund other parts of the herculean effort to get a vaccine to every American.

. . .

It’s not clear that the $6 billion the CDC says it needs would even be close to enough to effectively and quickly distribute the vaccine.

At the September hearing, Sen. Blunt referred to “another $20 billion that [HHS] doesn’t have in any specifically appropriated line” in order to have 300 million doses of vaccine available for the entire U.S. population.

In an ideal world, of course, Trump and the GOP would face massive backlash, and they would have to relent and pass a bill to save the country.  Since that seems unlikely to happen --- dear God, let this FINALLY be the thing that brings the #TrumpDeathCult out of its racism-fueled stupor. 

COIVD19 Update - Day 209

US Tests: 104,630,068*

US Cases: 7,421,943*

US Deaths: 202,040*

Worldwide Cases: 35,396,981*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,042,645*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sorry, I don't have it in me tonight.  I just don't.

COVID19 Update - Day 208

US Tests: 103,743,255*

US Cases: 7,383,499*

US Deaths: 201,712*

Worldwide Cases: 35,075,423*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,036,095*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The egotism and disregard for others is breathtaking --- but sadly, not surprising:

Donald Trump drew immediate rebuke from doctors on Sunday afternoon for an “insane” surprise drive-by visit to supporters outside the Walter Reed military medical center, where the president is being treated for an infection of Covid-19.

At least two other people, probably Secret Service agents, wearing respirators and eye protection, were seen on video in the vehicle accompanying Trump, who was also masked, during the short drive.

James Phillips, doctor of emergency medicine at George Washington University, who is an attending physician at Walter Reed, called the stunt “insanity”.

“Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential ‘drive-by’ just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die,” he wrote in a tweet.

“For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity.”

In a second tweet, Phillips added: “That Presidential SUV is not only bulletproof, but hermetically sealed against chemical attack. The risk of COVID19 transmission inside is as high as it gets outside of medical procedures. The irresponsibility is astounding. My thoughts are with the Secret Service forced to play.”

Here's a fun thought experiment.  If you had two Secret Service agents assigned to you, would you order them to accompany you on an unnecessary joyride around the block if you knew that it meant putting their lives in danger --- and the lives of their families as well?

If you answer "yes", you're a sociopath.

If you answer "no" --- then why would you support a president who does?

COVID19 Update - Day 207

US Tests: 102,881,973*

US Cases: 7,345,232*

US Deaths: 201,351*

Worldwide Cases: 34,768,408*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,030,880*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Some people believe that Trump doesn't really have #COVID19, that he's staging it for one reason or another.  Perhaps as an excuse to avoid more debates or, so that he can re-emerge, perfectly healthy, in a few days, and claim that the virus is no big deal.

Stories like this one lead me to believe that such theories are incorrect.

Among White House staff and the re-election effort, some advisers were furious that Trump wasn’t talked out of attending a high-roller fundraiser at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club on Thursday night, after the White House already learned of his exposure to the virus, two administration officials said. The senior official was also exasperated that the way the White House bungled the information rollout in the past couple days left the administration wide-open to allegations of yet another disastrous cover-up.

“It’s just fuck-up after fuck-up,” said a senior administration official who works with the coronavirus task force. “I don’t have much more to add [beyond] that.”

It's true that a number of Trump administration officials have been sharply critical of him --- but that usually only occurs after they've left their jobs at the White House.  At a minimum, if this IS a hoax, the Trump administration is doing a very poor job of keeping their people in line.

Also, a lot of senior GOP officials seem to believe this is pretty damn real:

I don’t want to be alarmist, but a GOP source just told me this: “Trump’s condition is serious. He can go either way. Despite all the meds and the presidential care, they could lose him within 3 to 4 days. They’re trying to make his condition look good to reassure his base.”

— Jon Cooper 🇺🇸 (@joncoopertweets) October 3, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 206

US Tests: 101,986,915*

US Cases: 7,294,029*

US Deaths: 200,611*

Worldwide Cases: 34,495,372*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,026,646*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

It was only a matter of time.  Anyone with an understanding of how viruses work should have seen this coming.  After all, Trump is famously disdainful of both masks and social distancing, and he has recently resumed holding campaign rallies, with people packed side by side.

And it's not like there weren't warning signs.  A number of people in the administration have previously tested positive, including Stephen Miller's wife, Katie; Trump's personal valet; and Donald Trump Jr.'s girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, among others.  Trump surrogate Herman Cain even died from coronavirus after attending a Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma --- a rally at which EIGHT Trump campaign staffers also tested positive.

And yet, Trump insisted on behaving as though it were no big deal.  "It is what it is".  And eventually, it caught up to him.

Less than 24 hours from public confirmation of Trump's positive test result, there are still more questions than answers.  And the White House is doing is usual outstanding job of providing no transparency.  However, one credible theory is that the infection began last Saturday, September 26, at a White House event for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett.  Since that event, five attendees have tested positive for coronavirus: Donald and Melania Trump, Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), former White House advisor Kellyanne Conway, and Notre Dame president Rev. John Jenkins.  As of this writing, there are 12 known coronavirus cases affecting people who have worked or visited the White House in the past week.  That number will certainly rise.

Given the large number of positive test results for people attending the Barrett ceremony (with more to come), it seems likely that's when Trump was infected.  So another interesting question is: when did he first learn he was infected?

Trump is well-known as a germaphobe, and reportedly is tested several times a day, which is only appropriate for a head of state.  So one has to wonder: did Trump know he was #COVID19 positive when he debated Joe Biden on Tuesday night?

He was almost certainly infected then, but it takes a while for the infection to be detected via test.  So it's possible he didn't know.  However, there is some reason to suspect that he did.

For one thing, even though the rules for the debate specified that each candidate and member of their entourage was to be tested before the debate, Trump wasn't.  Apparently he arrived too late to be tested, and so the debate organizers relied on the Trump campaign's promise that Trump had received a negative test --- basically, Trump was allowed in on the honor system.  And when has Trump ever done anything dishonorable?

If Trump or anyone in his campaign knew there was a concern about the virus, they didn't act like it.  They refused to wear masks --- even when offered --- and they did not notify anyone in the Biden camp that there was a concern.  Needless to say, it would be essentially a criminal act to participate in the debate and expose everyone in attendance if they knew someone in their campaign was infected.

For what it's worth, at no point did the Trump campaign ever notify the Biden campaign about the infections, even after they were known.  Biden and his campaign learned about it the same way everyone else did.  Classy.

Right now, Trump is at Walter Reed hospital, and the White House is providing no information about his condition.  Just like they provided no information about Trump's visit to Walter Reed last Thanksgiving, which some speculate came in response to a series of mini-strokes.  Whatever the reason, if has given some cause to believe that he has co-morbidities which may put him at elevated risk as a 74-year-old man.

As I write this, the situation can only be described as chaotic:

Multiple sources telling CNN on & off air that the WH Coronavirus Task Force does not know @POTUS’ condition, senior national security officials don’t know what is happening & ACB nomination event attendees have not been contacted for tracing.

— Joseph Robertson (@poet_economist) October 3, 2020