The presidential race is indeed the single most important race this election season --- but it's not as clear-cut as you might think. Winning back the Senate is incredibly important, too.
On the one hand, consider how much President Biden will be able to accomplish if he's forced to work with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. And on the other hand, consider how much less damage Trump will be able to do in a second term if Republicans DON'T control the Senate --- all judicial appointments will come to a screeching halt, including most crucially any Supreme Court appointments. And when Trump is inevitably impeached again, the Senate will be able to conduct a real trial, which might even pry loose a Republican vote or two (no, I don't delude myself into thinking there will be enough defections to remove him).
Personally, I am so concerned about Senate elections, that this cycle I am ONLY donating to Democratic Senate candidates (plus a token amount to my House representative), and not donating to the Biden campaign at all. Something tells me he already has all the money he needs.
So, if you're like me, and you want to spend some money on Democratic Senate candidates, how can you get the most for your Senate dollar? Never fear, I have done research! And I'm here today to share it with you!
(If you really can't be bothered to read any more of my tedious prose, you can just donate here and let ActBlue sort it out. Another [shorter] view of competitive Senate races can be found here)
I have split the Senate races into five categories --- well, really four, with a one-off:
- Top-tier Pickups: AZ, CO, ME, NC, GA, IA, KS, MT
- Stretch Goals: SC, AK, TX, MS, KY, AL
- Playing Defense: MI, MN, NM
- Long Shots: TN, WV, OK, ID, WY, SD
- Special: GA (yes, both Senate seats in Georgia are up for election this year)
Democrats have safe seats up for re-election in DE, IL, MA, NH, NJ, OR, RI and VA.
Republicans have two seats that I'm willing to concede as 'safe'. I'm only willing to concede the Arkansas race because the Democrats aren't even running anyone against Tom Cotton. Good job, Arkansas Democrats! I'm also conceding the Nebraska Senate race, because Nebraska Democrats have abandoned their nominee, Chris Janicek.
I'm not going to discuss the Louisiana race, because if incumbent Republican Bill Cassidy doesn't win outright on November 3, there will be a runoff, so we can talk about his Democratic opponent then.
Anyway, put your money where you think it will do the most good. I'm going to try to give something to all of the Democrats in the first four tiers. Within each tier, I have listed races in order, with the race at the top being the one I think your money will do the most good. Polling data, where available, can be viewed by clicking on the name of the state.
* - Incumbent party
(O) - Open seat
Top-tier Pickups
Here are eight golden opportunities to flip Senate seats. If you give to no other Democratic candidates for Senate this year, make sure you give to these eight.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Democrat: Mark Kelly | McSally recently asked her constituents to "fast a meal" so they could contribute to her campaign. |
| *Republican: Martha McSally | ||
| Colorado | Democrat: John Hickenlooper | Hickenlooper is a popular former Governor, while Gardner is a spineless Trump yes-man. |
| *Republican: Cory Gardner | ||
| Maine | Democrat: Sara Gideon | Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him. Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go. |
| *Republican: Susan Collins | ||
| North Carolina | Democrat: Cal Cunningham | |
| *Republican: Thom Tillis | ||
| Georgia | Democrat: Jon Ossoff | In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district. |
| *Republican: David Perdue | ||
| Iowa | Democrat: Theresa Greenfield | While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking. |
| *Republican: Joni Ernst | ||
| Kansas | Democrat: Barbara Bollier | Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018. And Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week. |
| *(O) Republican: Roger Marshall | ||
| Montana | Democrat: Steve Bullock | Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times. |
| *Republican: Steve Daines |
Stretch Goals
The Democrat (one of them an incumbent) is a clear underdog in each of these races. However, surprises do happen in political races, and 2020 could turn out to be a wave year. In any case, it's worth a few bucks to make sure the Democrat in each of these races remains competitive.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | Democrat: Jaime Harrison | Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog. |
| *Republican: Lindsey Graham | ||
| Alaska | Democrat: Al Gross | Although he ran in an won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent. He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. |
| *Republican: Dan Sullivan | ||
| Texas | Democrat: MJ Hegar | Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided. |
| *Republican: John Cornyn | ||
| Mississippi | Democrat: Mike Espy | Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate. |
| *Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith | ||
| Kentucky | Democrat: Amy McGrath | McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell. |
| *Republican: Mitch McConnell | ||
| Alabama | *Democrat: Doug Jones | As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent. But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment. Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud. |
| Republican: Tommy Tuberville |
Playing Defense
This election isn't just about flipping Republican seats, of course. Democrats also need to hold on to the seats they have. And while it's PROBABLY true that only one Democratic incumbent is really at risk (Doug Jones of Alabama --- see above), it's also a good idea to spend some resources making sure we keep the seats we've got.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | *Democrat: Gary Peters | Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent. Support for Peters will also likely help Biden in a key swing state. |
| Republican: John James | ||
| Minnesota | *Democrat: Tina Smith | Lewis is a former talk-radio host, and has the agenda you would expect from one. Think Rush Limbaugh. In 2018 he ran as an 'independent Republican' and lost his seat in Congress. Apparently he's now decided his best bet is to bear-hug Trump. As with Peters, support for Tina Smith will also help Biden in a state where the polls are close. |
| Republican: Jason Lewis | ||
| New Mexico | *(O)Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan | Lujan has consistently held a double-digit polling lead in a state Biden is likely to win easily, and Ronchetti is a political novice. This race isn't likely to be close. |
| Republican: Mark Ronchetti |
Long Shots
I'm not going to lie: The chances are probably 95% or more that the Republicans hold all 6 of these Senate seats. The main reason it's worth donating to the Democrats on this list is that if we starve Democrats forever in places like Tennessee, West Virginia and Idaho, then Democrats will NEVER be competitive in those states.
This is really more about the long game. If Wyoming voters hear a solid message from a strong Democratic candidate, they may not vote for them in 2020, or 2022, or even 2024. But persistence can change minds.
Also, the occasional upset DOES happen.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw | This is Tennessee, and Hagerty won the Republican nomination by hugging Trump the hardest. But Bradshaw is a true progressive, and scored a stunning upset in the Democratic race with practically no money. Imagine what she might do if she HAS money. |
| *(O) Republican: Bill Hagerty | ||
| West Virginia | Democrat: Paula Jean Swearengin | Moore-Capito appears to be a moderate Republican. But she still voted to acquit Trump, while Swearengin is a true progressive, endorsed by Bernie Sanders. |
| * Republican: Shelley Moore-Capito | ||
| Oklahoma | Democrat: Abby Broyles | Broyles is a progressive, running against someone who's held elective office for more than a half-century, and who knows he doesn't have to bother with debates. While Broyles is clearly an underdog, some give her the best chance of winning of any Oklahoma Democrat in more than a decade. |
| * Republican: James Inhofe | ||
| Idaho | Democrat: Paulette Jordan | Lather, rinse, repeat. Risch is a heavy favorite in a deep red state, willing to lie for Trump. Jordan is a sane progressive who recognizes the need for more #COVID19 stimulus. She almost certainly won't win, but she still deserves support. |
| * Republican: Jim Risch | ||
| Wyoming | Democrat: Merav Ben-David | Yeah, I give up. This is Wyoming, and all of the news articles I can find with any content are behind a paywall. So, you know, give some money to Ben-David, the anti-Trump candidate who will almost certainly lose. |
| *(O) Republican: Cynthia Lummis | ||
| South Dakota | Democrat: Daniel Ahlers | Rounds is a typical Republican, reluctant to criticize Trump or white supremacists. Ahlers is a typical Democrat, who desires to help people and work toward racial justice and so forth. |
| * Republican: Mike Rounds |
AND FINALLY --- there's the special election in Georgia, where appointed Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler will participate in a special election with multiple candidates from many parties (there is no primary).
Since it's unlikely that any candidate will receive a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two vote-getters will participate in a runoff election on January 5. Loeffler certainly deserves to lose her seat --- in addition to being a mindless Trump drone, she is also almost certainly guilty of insider trading. Also, Georgia is a state trending purple, so ordinarily I would put this race in the 'Top-Tier Pickups' column, along with the other Georgia race.
The problem is that there are TWO viable Democrats running, and like Loeffler, it's highly unlikely that either of them will receive a majority of the vote on November 3. So donate to Matt Lieberman or Raphael Warnock if you like, but strategically, the best move is to sit this out and support whichever Democrat makes it through to the runoff election.
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