Tuesday, September 1, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 175

US Tests: 78,447,059*
US Cases: 6,041,860*
US Deaths:176,624*
Worldwide Cases: 25,658,847*
Worldwide Deaths: 855,444*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Yet another morbid milestone, as the official number of US cases crosses the 6 million threshold.  And that's likely an undercount.  The number of deaths is likely an undercount, too, and not just because we're relying on the Trump administration's HHS for the numbers.  Although people have a tendency to want to believe the actual death total is lower --- both for political reasons and otherwise --- there's a metric called 'excess mortality' which is a pretty solid metric for estimating how bad things really are.

And --- excess mortality suggests things are actually worse than they seem:
Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.

This particular article is about 3 weeks old now, but it suggests that the REAL death toll from the virus is running about 40% higher than whatever number is currently being reported.

If accurate, that would mean that our real death toll from the coronavirus right now is really more like 250,000.

Keep this in mind whenever you hear someone who claims that the real death toll is LOWER than what's being reported.

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