This is an update to a post I published two weeks ago. Things are going to start moving quickly now, and unfortunately, we have already had one major incident occur to shake up not just one Senate race, but all of them --- the passing of national icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
It is unfortunate that we must think of politics at a time like this, but there's no denying that Justice Ginsburg died in the heat of the campaign season, and it has already had a major impact. While Republicans believe it will motivate their voters to turn out --- and it probably will --- evidence from the past week indicates that it has motivated Democrats even more. And that has translated into record fundraising for Democratic Senate candidates.
As for how this event has affected individual races, for the most part it is too soon to tell. Not much polling of individual races has been released in the past week. Nevertheless, this is how things look to my untrained eye.
Once again, if you just want to donate some money and let other people figure out the best way to spend it, ActBlue is happy to help.
- Top-tier pickups: AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, KS, SC, MT, AK, GA
- Stretch goals: TX, MS, KY, AL
- Playing defense: MI, MN, NM
- Long shots: TN, WV, OK, ID, WY, SD
A note about the special election in Georgia. In my previous post, I advised against putting any money into this race, because so many candidates are running that it is certain to go to a runoff on January 5. At the time, my thinking was that one Republican and one Democrat would make it through, and so that race would get it's own focus after November.
However, there now seems to be some concern that Democrats might get shut out of the January runoff entirely unless the second Democrat in the race, Matt Lieberman, drops out. So it might be a good idea to support the leading Democrat, Raphael Warnock, who has endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams and Barack Obama.
Top-tier Pickups
The good news is, I have added South Carolina and Alaska to the list of top-tier pickups, which means if November turns out to be a wave election --- and the fundraising suggests that it will --- Democrats stand a good chance of flipping ALL TEN of these seats.
The bad news is, Jon Ossoff has slipped a bit in the polling in Georgia. While most polls show Ossoff and Perdue basically tied, perhaps with a slight edge to Perdue, a string of Monmouth University polls from September 23 all show Perdue ahead by 5 points or more. It's just one polling outfit, and there's still plenty of time before the election --- but I did move this race to the bottom of this tier.
If you give to no other Democratic candidates for Senate this year, make sure you give to these ten.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Democrat: Mark Kelly | McSally recently asked her constituents to "fast a meal" so they could contribute to her campaign. |
| *Republican: Martha McSally | ||
| Colorado | Democrat: John Hickenlooper | Hickenlooper is a popular former Governor, while Gardner is a spineless Trump yes-man. |
| *Republican: Cory Gardner | ||
| North Carolina | Democrat: Cal Cunningham | Tillis promised to support the "well-qualified and conservative jurist president Trump will nominate" the day after RBG died --- and a full week before even knowing who the nominee was. |
| *Republican: Thom Tillis | ||
| Maine | Democrat: Sara Gideon | Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him. Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go. |
| *Republican: Susan Collins | ||
| Iowa | Democrat: Theresa Greenfield | While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking. |
| *Republican: Joni Ernst | ||
| Kansas | Democrat: Barbara Bollier | Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018. And Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week. |
| *(O) Republican: Roger Marshall | ||
| South Carolina | Democrat: Jaime Harrison | Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog. Graham recently went on Sean Hannity's show and whined that he's "getting killed" by Harrison's fundraising. Sweep the leg! |
| *Republican: Lindsey Graham | ||
| Montana | Democrat: Steve Bullock | Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times. |
| *Republican: Steve Daines | ||
| Alaska | Democrat: Al Gross | Although he ran in an won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent. He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. |
| *Republican: Dan Sullivan | ||
| Georgia | Democrat: Jon Ossoff | In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district. |
| *Republican: David Perdue |
Stretch Goals
The Democrat (one of them an incumbent) is a clear underdog in each of these races. However, surprises do happen in political races, and 2020 could turn out to be a wave year. In any case, it's worth a few bucks to make sure the Democrat in each of these races remains competitive.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | Democrat: MJ Hegar | Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided. There may be some movement toward Hegar. A poll yesterday shows Hegar trailing Cornyn by only 2 points --- 38-40 --- with a whopping 22% of voters still undecided. In TEXAS! |
| *Republican: John Cornyn | ||
| Mississippi | Democrat: Mike Espy | Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate. There is limited polling in this race, but it is fascinating. Back in March, a Tyson Group poll showed Hyde-Smith with a 26-point lead. Another Tyson Group poll at the end of August shows Hyde-Smith's lead down to a single point. |
| *Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith | ||
| Kentucky | Democrat: Amy McGrath | McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell. There's little doubt that McGrath has received a disproportionate share of the dollars donated to Democratic challengers in the past week. |
| *Republican: Mitch McConnell | ||
| Alabama | *Democrat: Doug Jones | As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent. But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment. Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud. A poll published on September 22 shows Tuberville with an 18-point lead. |
| Republican: Tommy Tuberville |
Playing Defense
This election isn't just about flipping Republican seats, of course. Democrats also need to hold on to the seats they have. And while it's PROBABLY true that only one Democratic incumbent is really at risk (Doug Jones of Alabama --- see above), it's also a good idea to spend some resources making sure we keep the seats we've got.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | *Democrat: Gary Peters | Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent. Support for Peters will also likely help Biden in a key swing state. |
| Republican: John James | ||
| Minnesota | *Democrat: Tina Smith | Lewis is a former talk-radio host, and has the agenda you would expect from one. Think Rush Limbaugh. In 2018 he ran as an 'independent Republican' and lost his seat in Congress. Apparently he's now decided his best bet is to bear-hug Trump. As with Peters, support for Tina Smith will also help Biden in a state where the polls are close. Two recent polls show Smith with a double-digit lead. This seat is probably safe. |
| Republican: Jason Lewis | ||
| New Mexico | *(O)Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan | Lujan has consistently held a double-digit polling lead in a state Biden is likely to win easily, and Ronchetti is a political novice. This race isn't likely to be close. |
| Republican: Mark Ronchetti |
Long Shots
I'm not going to lie: The chances are probably 95% or more that the Republicans hold all 6 of these Senate seats. The main reason it's worth donating to the Democrats on this list is that if we starve Democrats forever in places like Tennessee, West Virginia and Idaho, then Democrats will NEVER be competitive in those states.
This is really more about the long game. If Wyoming voters hear a solid message from a strong Democratic candidate, they may not vote for them in 2020, or 2022, or even 2024. But persistence can change minds.
Also, the occasional upset DOES happen.
| State | Candidates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw | This is Tennessee, and Hagerty won the Republican nomination by hugging Trump the hardest. But Bradshaw is a true progressive, and scored a stunning upset in the Democratic race with practically no money. Imagine what she might do if she HAS money. |
| *(O) Republican: Bill Hagerty | ||
| West Virginia | Democrat: Paula Jean Swearengin | Moore-Capito appears to be a moderate Republican. But she still voted to acquit Trump, while Swearengin is a true progressive, endorsed by Bernie Sanders. |
| * Republican: Shelley Moore-Capito | ||
| Oklahoma | Democrat: Abby Broyles | Broyles is a progressive, running against someone who's held elective office for more than a half-century, and who knows he doesn't have to bother with debates. While Broyles is clearly an underdog, some give her the best chance of winning of any Oklahoma Democrat in more than a decade. |
| * Republican: James Inhofe | ||
| Idaho | Democrat: Paulette Jordan | Lather, rinse, repeat. Risch is a heavy favorite in a deep red state, willing to lie for Trump. Jordan is a sane progressive who recognizes the need for more #COVID19 stimulus. She almost certainly won't win, but she still deserves support. |
| * Republican: Jim Risch | ||
| Wyoming | Democrat: Merav Ben-David | Yeah, I give up. This is Wyoming, and all of the news articles I can find with any content are behind a paywall. So, you know, give some money to Ben-David, the anti-Trump candidate who will almost certainly lose. |
| *(O) Republican: Cynthia Lummis | ||
| South Dakota | Democrat: Daniel Ahlers | Rounds is a typical Republican, reluctant to criticize Trump or white supremacists. Ahlers is a typical Democrat, who desires to help people and work toward racial justice and so forth. |
| * Republican: Mike Rounds |
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