COVID19 Update - Day 201

US Tests: 97,728,551*

US Cases: 7,080,459*

US Deaths: 196,869*

Worldwide Cases: 32,969,955*

Worldwide Deaths: 996,096*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Herd Immunity.  Many people don't understand, and some exceptionally ignorant people can't even pronounce it.  Unfortunately, this is one 'strategy' some in the White House prefer for 'combatting' the coronavirus --- probably because it's a scientific-sounding excuse to do nothing.

However, since there's precious little reporting happening on the pandemic these days, I thought I would call your attention to an article Vox ran recently about herd immunity.

Hypothetically, yes, there are situations under which herd immunity to Covid-19 could be achieved. Manaus, Brazil, an Amazonian city of around 2 million people, experienced one of the most severe Covid-19 outbreaks in the world. At the peak in the spring and early summer, the city’s hospitals were completely full, the New York Times reported.

During this period, there were four times as many deaths as normal for that point in the year. But then, over the summer, the outbreak sharply died down. Researchers now estimate between 44 percent and 66 percent of the city’s population was infected with the virus, which means it’s possible herd immunity has been achieved there. (This research has yet to be peer-reviewed.)

But that’s much higher than 22 percent, and the cost of this herd immunity was immense: Between 1 in 500 and 1 in 800 residents died there, the researchers estimate.

Many more were hospitalized, and still more may suffer long-term consequences of the infection. Similarly, the oft-cited example of Sweden, which has pursued a laxer social distancing strategy than its European peers (partially with the goal of building up herd immunity in younger people, while protecting older residents and trying to keep hospitals from exceeding capacity), has paid a price, too: a much higher death rate than fellow Scandinavian countries.

We’re several months into this pandemic, and herd immunity is still widely misunderstood and being continually misused for partisan goals of discrediting science and scientists. The biggest misconception is that achieving herd immunity through natural infection is a reasonable pandemic response strategy. It’s not.

Interested readers can go to the article to read all the details.  I just want to focus on the line highlighted in bold above.  Based on the experience in Manaus, we think that herd immunity MAY possibly be achieved at a cost of 1 in 500 to 1 in 800 people dying.  Conservatively estimating the current U.S. population at 320 million, that would mean we would need to accept --- at a minimum --- 400,000 deaths.

Or in other words, if we just give up and do nothing, we MIGHT reach herd immunity after we double the current number of deaths.

Or we may not.

It seems it would be so much easier just to wear a &*%#@!! mask.