COVID19 Update - Day 204

US Tests: 100,150,948*

US Cases: 7,198,589*

US Deaths: 198,929*

Worldwide Cases: 33,880,896*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,012,964*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

As expected, everyone is talking about the debate.  However, in my humble opinion, this is the only takeaway that matters (yes, I'm quoting my own tweet.  It's my blog; I can do what I want):

With 'stand back and stand by', Trump made the choice in this election agonizingly clear.

Either you're on the side of mob rule by white supremacist vigilantes.

Or you're on the side of democracy.

Vote accordingly.

— David Bailey (@drgdave) September 30, 2020

However, since this post is supposed to be about #COVID19, I guess I should say something about that.  So in addition to my own corrections of Trump's #COVID19-related lies that I made last night, here are some more that I missed:

That’s why many experts believe the vaccination process could take well into 2021 — and potentially 2022 or 2023. That means the Covid-19 pandemic could be with us for up to years, even after if we get a vaccine, and could remain a significant problem until the next round of elections.

Covid-19 “will continue to come up as an issue in the next midterms,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, previously told me. “It’s not going away.”

It would be one thing if Trump had done anything to assure the American public that he has the pandemic under control. Maybe that would have earned him some faith in how he and his administration will roll out a vaccine.

But Trump has done the opposite, repeatedly blundering his response to the coronavirus: He’s deliberately downplayed the pandemic, demanded states reopen too quickly, punted problems with testing and tracing down to local and state governments with more limited resources than the federal government, mocked masks, and tried to politicize public health institutions instead of letting science lead the response.

As a result, America has more than 200,000 deaths from Covid-19 — by far the highest recorded death toll in the world. When controlling for population, the US hasn’t had the highest death rate for Covid-19, but it’s among the top 20 percent of developed nations, and has seven times the death rate of the median developed country. If the US had the same Covid-19 death rate as, say, Canada, more than 120,000 more Americans would likely be alive today.

COVID19 Update - Day 203

US Tests: 99,435,766*

US Cases: 7,154,198*

US Deaths: 197,868*

Worldwide Cases: 33,560,877*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,006,564*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

As you may know, there was a debate tonight.  Many things were said, and on occasion, the audience was actually able to hear some of them.  Given that he has no record to run on, Trump did what he always does: lie.

Specifically, as regards the coronavirus, Trump repeated his lie that shutting down travel from China saved 2 million American lives.  I'm not sure which orifice he pulled this number from, but it's clearly wrong.  We know this mainly because he didn't really shut down travel from China, as much as he modestly curtailed it.

In any case, Trump's response to the pandemic has been nothing short of a disaster, as one can easily see (and as Biden noted in the debate) by the fact that the U.S. has only about 4% of the world's population, but nearly 20% of the world's coronavirus deaths (19.66%, to be scrupulously fair).

For those who prefer a visual representation of Trump's failure, here's the latest version of how the U.S. compares to the rest of the world in coronavirus deaths per capita:

In case you're wondering, the only other countries doing about as badly as the U.S. are Mexico and Brazil.  As you can see, practically every other country on the planet has a lower mortality rate.

And if you're the kind of person who likes to pretend the rest of the world doesn't exist, the coronvirus is now the third leading cause of death in the U.S. in 2020, just behind heart disease and cancer.

(Parenthetically --- if you learned you could drastically reduce the number of cancer deaths just by wearing a mask in public --- you'd do it, right?)

Trump's other big lie about the coronavirus tonight is that he claimed he was being sarcastic when he suggested that injecting disinfectant might be a viable treatment.

Judge for yourself to see whether he's being sarcastic:

COVID19 Update - Day 202

US Tests: 98,691,290*

US Cases: 7,117,251*

US Deaths: 197,129*

Worldwide Cases: 22,273,270*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,000,555*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another sad milestone.  One million deaths.  And while this milestone is not America's shame exclusively, we did contribute our fair share of deaths (and then some).  And sadly, we all know WHY America has paid a higher price than most any other country.

Because of crap like this:

Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Robert Redfield was overheard on an airplane candidly expressing his real feelings on Friday, revealing to all his dim view of President Trump’s new favorite COVID-19 adviser, NBC reported.

“Everything he says is false,” Redfield said of Dr. Scott Atlas, a neurologist who hasn’t practiced medicine since 2012.

Before joining the White House’s coronavirus task force in August 2020, Atlas had not spent time on epidemiology but rather on advocacy against “socialized medicine.”

An NBC News reporter overheard Redfield discussing Atlas while on a flight from Atlanta to Washington D.C. After the flight landed, Redfield confirmed to NBC that he was discussing Atlas.

Atlas has faced widespread criticism for advocating a contrarian approach to managing the virus while lacking epidemiological expertise, recommending, for example, that all schools be reopened.

Faculty members at Stanford University Medical School sent an open letter on September 10 accusing Atlas of peddling “falsehoods,” to which he responded with a threat of a defamation lawsuit sent by Trump attorney Marc Kasowitz.

Dr. Deborah Birx, another prominent task force member who has managed to stay in the President’s good graces, is reportedly “distressed” over how enamored Trump has become with Atlas.

And still more than 40% of Americans approve of this stain.  And shrug off another 1,000 deaths or so as just another day in America. 

COVID19 Update - Day 201

US Tests: 97,728,551*

US Cases: 7,080,459*

US Deaths: 196,869*

Worldwide Cases: 32,969,955*

Worldwide Deaths: 996,096*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Herd Immunity.  Many people don't understand, and some exceptionally ignorant people can't even pronounce it.  Unfortunately, this is one 'strategy' some in the White House prefer for 'combatting' the coronavirus --- probably because it's a scientific-sounding excuse to do nothing.

However, since there's precious little reporting happening on the pandemic these days, I thought I would call your attention to an article Vox ran recently about herd immunity.

Hypothetically, yes, there are situations under which herd immunity to Covid-19 could be achieved. Manaus, Brazil, an Amazonian city of around 2 million people, experienced one of the most severe Covid-19 outbreaks in the world. At the peak in the spring and early summer, the city’s hospitals were completely full, the New York Times reported.

During this period, there were four times as many deaths as normal for that point in the year. But then, over the summer, the outbreak sharply died down. Researchers now estimate between 44 percent and 66 percent of the city’s population was infected with the virus, which means it’s possible herd immunity has been achieved there. (This research has yet to be peer-reviewed.)

But that’s much higher than 22 percent, and the cost of this herd immunity was immense: Between 1 in 500 and 1 in 800 residents died there, the researchers estimate.

Many more were hospitalized, and still more may suffer long-term consequences of the infection. Similarly, the oft-cited example of Sweden, which has pursued a laxer social distancing strategy than its European peers (partially with the goal of building up herd immunity in younger people, while protecting older residents and trying to keep hospitals from exceeding capacity), has paid a price, too: a much higher death rate than fellow Scandinavian countries.

We’re several months into this pandemic, and herd immunity is still widely misunderstood and being continually misused for partisan goals of discrediting science and scientists. The biggest misconception is that achieving herd immunity through natural infection is a reasonable pandemic response strategy. It’s not.

Interested readers can go to the article to read all the details.  I just want to focus on the line highlighted in bold above.  Based on the experience in Manaus, we think that herd immunity MAY possibly be achieved at a cost of 1 in 500 to 1 in 800 people dying.  Conservatively estimating the current U.S. population at 320 million, that would mean we would need to accept --- at a minimum --- 400,000 deaths.

Or in other words, if we just give up and do nothing, we MIGHT reach herd immunity after we double the current number of deaths.

Or we may not.

It seems it would be so much easier just to wear a &*%#@!! mask.

COVID19 Update - Day 200

US Tests: 97,027,653*

US Cases: 7,045,170*

US Deaths: 196,562*

Worldwide Cases: 32,747,374*

Worldwide Deaths: 992,984*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I've been writing about #COVID19 for 200 days now.  Back when I started, I thought --- naively, I now realize --- that these daily updates would become irrelevant sometime around the start of August.  What is positively stunning is that, as far as the news media is concerned, the coronavirus IS irrelevant.

Stop and think for minute.  In 200 days, nearly 200,000 people have died in America (over 200,000, if you use the numbers from Johns Hopkins).  That's an average of 1,000 people a day, every day, for more than half a year.  It is projected to be the third leading cause of death in America in 2020.  There's no end in sight, and people who actually know about such things are predicting it will only get worse through the winter.

And yes, there's an election in just over 5 weeks.  But the devastation caused by the virus, and Trump's heinous malfeasance, should play a major role in election coverage.  Less than 3 weeks ago, Bob Woodward dropped a bombshell when he released recordings of Trump acknowledging the dangers of the virus back in February, even though he has spent the past 7 months comparing it to the common flu, calling it a hoax, refusing to wear a mask and so on.

In a functioning democracy, Trump wouldn't even be president any more.  But not only is he still in office, and not only has the media dropped Woodward's bombshell --- they've dropped the coronavirus altogether.

(So a bit of inside baseball on how I make my sausage.  Typically, I will run across a story during the day which I think will be good to write about.  On the rare days when that doesn't happen, I go check my trusted news sources --- first Talking Points Memo, then Vox, and then CNN as a last resort).

Here is a screen shot of the CNN home page just a few minutes ago:

It is utterly flabbergasting.

Take Back the Senate! (Update!)

This is an update to a post I published two weeks ago.  Things are going to start moving quickly now, and unfortunately, we have already had one major incident occur to shake up not just one Senate race, but all of them --- the passing of national icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

It is unfortunate that we must think of politics at a time like this, but there's no denying that Justice Ginsburg died in the heat of the campaign season, and it has already had a major impact.  While Republicans believe it will motivate their voters to turn out --- and it probably will --- evidence from the past week indicates that it has motivated Democrats even more.  And that has translated into record fundraising for Democratic Senate candidates.

As for how this event has affected individual races, for the most part it is too soon to tell.  Not much polling of individual races has been released in the past week.  Nevertheless, this is how things look to my untrained eye.

Once again, if you just want to donate some money and let other people figure out the best way to spend it, ActBlue is happy to help.

• Top-tier pickups: AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, KS, SC, MT, AK, GA
• Stretch goals: TX, MS, KY, AL
• Playing defense: MI, MN, NM
• Long shots: TN, WV, OK, ID, WY, SD

A note about the special election in Georgia.  In my previous post, I advised against putting any money into this race, because so many candidates are running that it is certain to go to a runoff on January 5.  At the time, my thinking was that one Republican and one Democrat would make it through, and so that race would get it's own focus after November.

However, there now seems to be some concern that Democrats might get shut out of the January runoff entirely unless the second Democrat in the race, Matt Lieberman, drops out.  So it might be a good idea to support the leading Democrat, Raphael Warnock, who has endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams and Barack Obama.

Top-tier Pickups

The good news is, I have added South Carolina and Alaska to the list of top-tier pickups, which means if November turns out to be a wave election --- and the fundraising suggests that it will --- Democrats stand a good chance of flipping ALL TEN of these seats.

The bad news is, Jon Ossoff has slipped a bit in the polling in Georgia.  While most polls show Ossoff and Perdue basically tied, perhaps with a slight edge to Perdue, a string of Monmouth University polls from September 23 all show Perdue ahead by 5 points or more.  It's just one polling outfit, and there's still plenty of time before the election --- but I did move this race to the bottom of this tier.

If you give to no other Democratic candidates for Senate this year, make sure you give to these ten.

State	Candidates	Notes
Arizona	Democrat: Mark Kelly	McSally recently asked her constituents to "fast a meal" so they could contribute to her campaign.
	*Republican: Martha McSally
Colorado	Democrat: John Hickenlooper	Hickenlooper is a popular former Governor, while Gardner is a spineless Trump yes-man.
	*Republican: Cory Gardner
North Carolina	Democrat: Cal Cunningham	Tillis promised to support the "well-qualified and conservative jurist president Trump will nominate" the day after RBG died --- and a full week before even knowing who the nominee was.
	*Republican: Thom Tillis
Maine	Democrat: Sara Gideon	Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him.  Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go.
	*Republican: Susan Collins
Iowa	Democrat: Theresa Greenfield	While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking.
	*Republican: Joni Ernst
Kansas	Democrat: Barbara Bollier	Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018.  And Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week.
	*(O) Republican: Roger Marshall
South Carolina	Democrat: Jaime Harrison	Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog. Graham recently went on Sean Hannity's show and whined that he's "getting killed" by Harrison's fundraising.  Sweep the leg!
	*Republican: Lindsey Graham
Montana	Democrat: Steve Bullock	Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times.
	*Republican: Steve Daines
Alaska	Democrat: Al Gross	Although he ran in an won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent.  He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic.
	*Republican: Dan Sullivan
Georgia	Democrat: Jon Ossoff	In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district.
	*Republican: David Perdue

Stretch Goals

The Democrat (one of them an incumbent) is a clear underdog in each of these races.  However, surprises do happen in political races, and 2020 could turn out to be a wave year.  In any case, it's worth a few bucks to make sure the Democrat in each of these races remains competitive.

State	Candidates	Notes
Texas	Democrat: MJ Hegar	Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided. There may be some movement toward Hegar.  A poll yesterday shows Hegar trailing Cornyn by only 2 points --- 38-40 --- with a whopping 22% of voters still undecided. In TEXAS!
	*Republican: John Cornyn
Mississippi	Democrat: Mike Espy	Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate. There is limited polling in this race, but it is fascinating.  Back in March, a Tyson Group poll showed Hyde-Smith with a 26-point lead.  Another Tyson Group poll at the end of August shows Hyde-Smith's lead down to a single point.
	*Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Kentucky	Democrat: Amy McGrath	McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell. There's little doubt that McGrath has received a disproportionate share of the dollars donated to Democratic challengers in the past week.
	*Republican: Mitch McConnell
Alabama	*Democrat: Doug Jones	As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent.  But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment.  Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud. A poll published on September 22 shows Tuberville with an 18-point lead.
	Republican: Tommy Tuberville

Playing Defense

This election isn't just about flipping Republican seats, of course.  Democrats also need to hold on to the seats they have.  And while it's PROBABLY true that only one Democratic incumbent is really at risk (Doug Jones of Alabama --- see above), it's also a good idea to spend some resources making sure we keep the seats we've got.

State	Candidates	Notes
Michigan	*Democrat: Gary Peters	Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent.  Support for Peters will also likely help Biden in a key swing state.
	Republican: John James
Minnesota	*Democrat: Tina Smith	Lewis is a former talk-radio host, and has the agenda you would expect from one.  Think Rush Limbaugh.  In 2018 he ran as an 'independent Republican' and lost his seat in Congress.  Apparently he's now decided his best bet is to bear-hug Trump.  As with Peters, support for Tina Smith will also help Biden in a state where the polls are close. Two recent polls show Smith with a double-digit lead.  This seat is probably safe.
	Republican: Jason Lewis
New Mexico	*(O)Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan	Lujan has consistently held a double-digit polling lead in a state Biden is likely to win easily, and Ronchetti is a political novice.  This race isn't likely to be close.
	Republican: Mark Ronchetti

Long Shots

I'm not going to lie: The chances are probably 95% or more that the Republicans hold all 6 of these Senate seats.  The main reason it's worth donating to the Democrats on this list is that if we starve Democrats forever in places like Tennessee, West Virginia and Idaho, then Democrats will NEVER be competitive in those states.

This is really more about the long game.  If Wyoming voters hear a solid message from a strong Democratic candidate, they may not vote for them in 2020, or 2022, or even 2024.  But persistence can change minds.

Also, the occasional upset DOES happen.

State	Candidates	Notes
Tennessee	Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw	This is Tennessee, and Hagerty won the Republican nomination by hugging Trump the hardest.  But Bradshaw is a true progressive, and scored a stunning upset in the Democratic race with practically no money.  Imagine what she might do if she HAS money.
	*(O) Republican: Bill Hagerty
West Virginia	Democrat: Paula Jean Swearengin	Moore-Capito appears to be a moderate Republican.  But she still voted to acquit Trump, while Swearengin is a true progressive, endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
	* Republican: Shelley Moore-Capito
Oklahoma	Democrat: Abby Broyles	Broyles is a progressive, running against someone who's held elective office for more than a half-century, and who knows he doesn't have to bother with debates.  While Broyles is clearly an underdog, some give her the best chance of winning of any Oklahoma Democrat in more than a decade.
	* Republican: James Inhofe
Idaho	Democrat: Paulette Jordan	Lather, rinse, repeat.  Risch is a heavy favorite in a deep red state, willing to lie for Trump.  Jordan is a sane progressive who recognizes the need for more #COVID19 stimulus.  She almost certainly won't win, but she still deserves support.
	* Republican: Jim Risch
Wyoming	Democrat: Merav Ben-David	Yeah, I give up.  This is Wyoming, and all of the news articles I can find with any content are behind a paywall.  So, you know, give some money to Ben-David, the anti-Trump candidate who will almost certainly lose.
	*(O) Republican: Cynthia Lummis
South Dakota	Democrat: Daniel Ahlers	Rounds is a typical Republican, reluctant to criticize Trump or white supremacists.  Ahlers is a typical Democrat, who desires to help people and work toward racial justice and so forth.
	* Republican: Mike Rounds

Among Us

If you have come here today looking for the usual tedious ranting about the pandemic and the election, this post is not for you.  It's for friends of mine, to introduce them to a multiplayer online game called Among Us.  But you might want to keep reading anyway.  Unlike most of what I write here, this post should be fun!

(And also, I do plan to publish an update on the Senate races later today, so keep an eye out for that)

ANYWAY --- the game is called Among Us, and it can be downloaded for free from the App Store and Google Play.  Normally, you would have to put up with in-game ads, but since I will be hosting our room, you won't even have to put up with that!  (Who's your buddy, who's your pal?)

When you first open the app, you will see a home screen that looks something like this.  To get familiar with the game, you'll want to tap the 'Freeplay' option:

Tapping this button brings up a menu of three rooms to explore for freeplay.  We will be using the original and most popular room, The Skeld, so select that one.

When you do, you should find yourself on a screen that looks something like the following.  You'll see something in the lower-left that looks kind of like a doughnut.  It's actually a virtual joystick, and it's how you move your player around in the room.  As an initial challenge, see if you can figure out how to move your avatar up and to the left a bit, to stand approximately where my avatar is standing in the image.

One thing that you may notice is that the little laptop in the lower-right becomes activated as your avatar gets close to the laptop on the table, but greys out as you move away.  So if you did it right and you're standing where my avatar is standing, you should be able to tap that 'Customize' laptop to bring up a selection of file folders (sorry, no screenshot --- I couldn't figure out how to do that now that I've updgraded my phone).

Within these folders are all of the tasks you might be asked to perform when we play a game in The Skeld for reals.  So you can add/remove tasks from your list of 'tasks to complete' whenever you like.  Your tasks to complete are listed in the upper left.

So --- grab a few tasks for yourself and experiment with how to complete them.  Or just use the list of tasks already assigned to you.  The game will help you in a few ways.  For one thing, yellow triangle-y arrows will appear at the sides of the screen, pointing you the way to your next task.  And when you get close to an area where one of your tasks is, that area will be outlined in yellow.  And just like the 'Customize' laptop became enabled when your avatar got close enough to the laptop to use it, a 'Use' button will become enabled whenever your close enough to a task station to perform it.

The 'Use' button will even be in the same location as the 'Customize' button on this screen!

Another tool the game provides to help you with your tasks is a map.  That's the icon in the upper-right that kind of looks like a flag.  Or maybe a map.  Anyway, if you tap that, you'll see a map of The Skeld, with your task locations highlighted in yellow.

Once you get bored with practicing tasks, you can ALSO practice being The Imposter.  Just return to the laptop in the Cafeteria, pull up the menu of available tasks, and select the RED folder, labeled Be_Imposter.exe.  That's a fun one!  That doesn't give you more tasks to do; it allows you to learn what The Imposter can do --- including sabotage, moving through vents in the ship, and of course, killing your crewmates!

When you're all funned out, you can exit the game by tapping the 'Settings' icon in the upper-right, and selecting 'Leave Game' from the menu that pops up.

COVID19 Update - Day 199

US Tests: 96,089,217*

US Cases: 6,992,874*

US Deaths: 195,696*

Worldwide Cases: 32,471,119*

Worldwide Deaths: 987,593*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

People are literally dying to support Trump.  Despite the fact that Trump knew all the way back in February that #COVID19 is spread through the air, and is much deadlier than the seasonal flu, he continues to have in-person rallies, and idiots continue to attend them, mostly without wearing a mask.

And it's had a predictable result:

• Rural America’s 1,976 rural (or nonmetropolitan) counties produced 53,852 new Covid-19 infections last week, an increase of more than 12,000 cases from the previous week.
• The number of coronavirus-related deaths in rural America last week was 1,148, an increase of 189.
• Nearly half (45%) of the nation’s rural counties were on the red-zone list last week.
• The number of new coronavirus deaths and infections is disproportionately rural. While rural counties represent only about 14% of the U.S. population, they produced 19.7% of the Covid-19 deaths and 18.8% of the new infections last week.

And of course, as we all know, these rural counties tend to be disproportionately populated with Trump supporters.  Apparently Trump doesn't care that his rallies are killing his own supporters, and astonishingly enough, his supporters don't care, either.

It will be fascinating to read what the historians 50 years from now have to say about the Trump era.

COVID19 Update - Day 198

US Tests: 95,181,735*

US Cases: 6,941,911*

US Deaths: 194,852*

Worldwide Cases: 32,135,220*

Worldwide Deaths: 981,660*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I don't know whether this is funny, or sad.  Today I was idly checking out the list of countries where Americans can still travel during the pandemic --- as you may know, only nine countries allow Americans in without restrictions, while many have banned us altogether --- and I noticed that the State Department has travel advisories for some of them.

And that's reasonable.  An important function of the federal government is to keep Americans safe, and although they're doing a stunningly bad job in regards to the coronavirus, the virus isn't the only threat in the world.  So I checked out some of these travel advisories.

And after a bit of clicking around, I found this map, which shows that the State Department has issued a coronavirus warning for literally every country on the planet --- except for the United States.  Which kind of makes sense, until you realize that --- along with India and Brazil --- the United States is the most badly-infected nation on the planet.

So --- far from the State Department needing to WARN Americans to stay home, they should actually be ENCOURAGING us to travel to other countries with a lower rate of infection.

If they would let us in.

Which most of them won't.

COVID19 Update - Day 197

US Tests: 94,293,851*

US Cases: 6,897,596*

US Deaths: 193,912*

Worldwide Cases: 31,778,331*

Worldwide Deaths: 974,436*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Unbelievably --- even though we're still in the middle of a pandemic which has claimed more than 193,000 lives, and even though Trump is clearly guilty of gross malfeasance and neglect in allowing that to happen --- the pandemic has almost completely vanished from the news.

And sadly, I would have to say that it's justified.  Because Trump continues to crank the malfeasance up to eleven:

When asked by Playboy’s senior White House reporter Brian Karem on whether there will be a peaceful transferral of power after the election, citing the unrest that has erupted in Louisville and many cities across the country during protests against police brutality, Trump offered a noncommittal reply.

“Well, we’re going to have to see what happens,” Trump said.

The President went on to gripe “very strongly about the ballots” because they are a “disaster,” as he continued waging his crusade against states expanding access to mail-in voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which he baselessly claims will lead to voter fraud.

Pressed again by Karem about whether he can ensure that there’s a peaceful transferral of power if he were to lose the November election, the self-proclaimed President of “law and order” largely ignored the question by continuing his rant against mail-in voting.

“Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very peaceful — there won’t be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation. The ballots are out of control. You know it,” Trump said. “And you know who knows it better than anybody else? Democrats know it better than anybody else.”

There are no circumstances under which a sitting president should ever say that we need to 'get rid of the ballots', especially right before an election.  It's immediately disqualifying.  And although it's been said many times, many ways --- if any other president had said this, the calls for his resignation would be deafening, and he would almost certainly have to step down.

Trump needs to be impeached.  Again.  It doesn't matter that the election is less than 6 weeks away.

Call your representative and demand Trump's immediate impeachment.  Keep calling until you get through.

COVD19 Update - Day 196

US Tests: 93,470,726*

US Cases: 6,858,927*

US Deaths: 192,741*

Worldwide Cases: 31,467,508*

Worldwide Deaths: 967,881*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

FiveThirtyEight surveyed some economists.  Unsurprisingly, they largely believed that a pandemic is bad for the economy --- and that U.S. policy should have been to lock down and defeat the virus before reopening, rather than, you know, pretending the virus is no big deal:

Back in the early days of the coronavirus in the U.S., many economists believed that aggressive lockdowns would be the best long-term solution for managing the pandemic, despite the short-term economic pain they would cause. Six months later, we wanted to know: Did that logic hold up? And what political events could still be in store to alter the course of the country’s ongoing recovery from the current recession?

In this week’s installment of our economic survey, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, FiveThirtyEight polled 32 quantitative macroeconomists about the present and future of the economy. And because we couldn’t resist some Monday-morning quarterbacking, we also asked whether the lockdowns earlier in the year were too aggressive or not aggressive enough.

Out of those surveyed, 74 percent of economists said the U.S. would be in a better economic position now if lockdowns had been more aggressive at the beginning of the crisis. Among that camp, the most commonly cited reason was that early control over the virus would have allowed a smoother and more comprehensive return to economic activity later on. “More aggressive lockdowns would have [gotten] the country in a better position (health wise) as we head into fall and winter,” said Andrew Patton, a professor of economics and finance at Duke University.

Trump is to blame for the vast majority of the deaths during the pandemic.  And according to these economists, Trump is also to blame for a lot of the damage to the economy.

He gave America the worst possible outcome. 

COVID19 Update - Day 195

US Tests: 92,751,148*

US Cases: 6,810,128*

US Deaths: 191,920*

Worldwide Cases: 31,180,434*

Worldwide Deaths: 962,232*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

This is a nightmare.  Trump has effectively destroyed the CDC:

After briefly acknowledging that the virus which causes COVID-19 spreads via the air, the Centers for Disease Control abruptly took down the post.

In a section of the agency’s website titled “How COVID Spreads,” the CDC acknowledged for the first time that “droplets and airborne particles” can stay in the air and infect others – a mode of spread that has been supported by widespread evidence for months, and which President Trump acknowledged in a February phone call with Bob Woodward.

“In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk,” the guidance read.

But on Monday, the CDC removed the guidance, saying that it had been “posted in error.”

“CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19),” the note reads.

The sudden veering away from widely accepted scientific guidance comes after months of scandal at the CDC, revolving around various episodes in which Trump administration appointees have contorted the agency’s recommendations to match political exigencies.

It is a metaphor, but not hyperbole, to say that Trump is cancer. 

COVID19 Update - Day 194

US Tests: 92,069,997*

US Cases: 6,770,401*

US Deaths: 191,627*

Worldwide Cases: 30,911,999*

Worldwide Deaths: 959,059*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

And now for something completely different.  Rather than focusing on how badly Trump in particular, and America in general, is responding to the pandemic, here's an article about a possible treatment which could lessen the severity of some of the worst coronavirus symptoms:

After finding the potential role of bradykinins in severe Covid-19 in March, Roche went looking for a way to halt this inflammatory cascade. “It’s like a set of gear wheels—inflammation, injury, inflammation—and you’re trying to jam up the wheels,” he says. Along with his wife, Renuka Roche, an assistant professor in occupational therapy at Eastern Michigan University, he started to explore potential treatments that were ready to use.

As clinicians trained to pay a lot of attention to recovery through rehabilitation, he says, “We know that health care does not end with just saving a person’s life.” Roche says life quality is important too, meaning any intervention that could minimize damage would be a true advancement in the fight against Covid-19’s ravages.

Treatment targeting bradykinin signaling wouldn’t have to be perfect to improve lung damage and long-term outcomes. “If you’re able to even dampen the cycle by 50 percent, that means that much tissue may be spared,” Roche says.

In the medical literature, the Roches found a medication called icatibant that is both known to be safe and inhibits bradykinin signaling. It was already approved by the FDA, with the added benefit of an expired patent, meaning generic versions could be made much more affordably. They reached out to the Canadian and Indian governments about starting rapid research on icatibant in late March, wrote an open letter to the scientific community in April, and published a paper on their hypothesis in May.

 Certainly much more promising than a complete shot in the dark, like hydroxychloroquine.

COVID19 Update - Day 193

US Tests: 91,243,810*

US Cases: 6,733,110*

US Deaths: 191,303*

Worldwide Cases: 30,666,122*

Worldwide Deaths: 954,905*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Not all of the blame for the feckless U.S. response belongs to Trump.  He has certainly engaged in counterproductive behavior, like his hydroxychloroquine fetish, his refusal to wear a mask 99% of the time, and his repeated statements downplaying its severity.  And he has also enabled to really rotten behavior on the part of many Americans.

Unfortunately, I believe part of that rotten behavior is simply ingrained in the American psyche:

So why is testing declining in the US?

According to experts, there are three major factors: The summer’s worst Covid-19 outbreaks in the US have receded — reducing demand for tests. President Donald Trump’s administration recently recommended less testing, before backtracking on the changes this week. And state governments may not be reporting all the tests within their borders, particularly relatively newer antigen tests that are growing in use.

Combined, all these factors paint a grim picture for the US — one in which the country is still testing too little and flying blind, months into the coronavirus pandemic.

“Every time we make progress in terms of containing the pandemic, we take our foot off the brakes,” Thomas Tsai, a health policy expert at Harvard, told me. “What we really should be doing is to step on the brakes harder, and truly suppress the pandemic. As a country we seem content with half measures, so we end up in this situation where we never really suppress community transmission.”

Members of the 'Greatest Generation' scrimped on meat, butter, and sugar for SEVEN YEARS or more from the end of the Great Depression through the end of World War II.

I think all of them would be ashamed by how soft this country has become. 

COVID19 Update - Day 192

US Tests: 90,254,920*

US Cases: 6,688,827*

US Deaths: 190,566*

Worldwide Cases: 30,395,579*

Worldwide Deaths: 950,434*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sadly, it can't be said too often.  Trump literally doesn't care whether you die, if he thinks it will help him politically:

A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agency’s website despite their serious objections, according to several people familiar with the matter as well as internal documents obtained by The New York Times.

The guidance said it was not necessary to test people without symptoms of Covid-19 even if they had been exposed to the virus. It came at a time when public health experts were pushing for more testing rather than less, and administration officials told The Times that the document was a C.D.C. product and had been revised with input from the agency’s director, Dr. Robert Redfield.

But officials told The Times this week that the Department of Health and Human Services did the rewriting and then “dropped” it into the C.D.C.’s public website, flouting the agency’s strict scientific review process.

. . .

“Suggesting that asymptomatic people don’t need testing is just a prescription for community spread and further disease and death,” said Dr. Susan Bailey, president of the American Medical Association, which usually works closely with the C.D.C.

They think their ignorance is just as good as scientific knowledge, vote accordingly, etc. 

COVID19 Update - Day 191

US Tests: 89,351,293*

US Cases: 6,641,341*

US Deaths: 189,665*

Worldwide Cases: 30,003,378*

Worldwide Deaths: 943,203*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Submitted without comment.

🚨🚨🚨
NEW from @RVAT2020.
Olivia Troye, VP Pence's lead staffer on the COVID task force, resigned two months ago. Now she speaks out:
"No matter how hard you worked...the president was going to do something detrimental to keeping Americans safe. It was awful. It was terrifying." pic.twitter.com/nkz2WncE9i

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) September 17, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 190

US Tests: 88,574,524*

US Cases: 6,597,783*

US Deaths: 188,802*

Worldwide Cases: 29,730,140*

Worldwide Deaths: 938,575*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Love Trump, or drop dead.  It is undeniable that everything Trump says and does publicly is motivated by politics.

The President of the Red States of America. pic.twitter.com/CCzBRBpWoy

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) September 16, 2020

Of course, Trump's statements never intersect with the truth unless it's by accident --- and this case is no exception:

For what it’s worth, we are not below 240,000 deaths substantially. Instead, the country has seen at least 193,000 deaths, a figure that is probably an underestimation. For example, there have been 263,000 more deaths in the United States in 2020 than would have been expected based on the past several years. If those are attributable to the novel coronavirus, we’ve already moved out of good-job territory.

. . .

It is true that the early surge in deaths was heavily weighted toward states that had voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. New York and New Jersey in particular recorded hundreds of deaths a day in April, quickly contributing to the country’s total number of fatalities.

Over time, though, the percentage of total deaths that have occurred in blue states has dropped. The most recent data, through Tuesday, indicates that about 53 percent of deaths have occurred in blue states — meaning that 47 percent have occurred in red ones.

In other words, more than 90,000 deaths have occurred in red states. If that were the country’s total, we would have seen the second-most number of deaths globally, trailing only Brazil. The United States would still be responsible for 11 percent of global deaths, despite constituting only about 4 percent of the world’s population.

It is, of course, abhorrent that a president not only views a pandemic in terms of the states which largely support him versus those that do not, but that he says so publicly.  However, this is not the first time we've learned that the red/blue divide stands foremost in Trump's mind even in a crisis.  Recall the revelation in late July that Trump and Kushner trashed a planned coronavirus response because of:

. . . a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.

If you support Trump, then *maybe* you will only be damaged as badly as the folks in Georgia or Florida.

Oppose him, and he literally doesn't care if you die.

COVID19 Update - Day 189

US Tests: 87,908,902*

US Cases: 6,557,762*

US Deaths: 187,600*

Worldwide Cases: 29,412,696*

Worldwide Deaths: 931,272*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

As we approach November, more and more stories about the election are squeezing out stories about the pandemic.

Of course, the two things aren't mutually exclusive:

The pandemic would strain any nation and system, but Trump's rejection of evidence and public health measures have been catastrophic in the U.S. He was warned many times in January and February about the onrushing disease, yet he did not develop a national strategy to provide protective equipment, coronavirus testing or clear health guidelines. Testing people for the virus, and tracing those they may have infected, is how countries in Europe and Asia have gained control over their outbreaks, saved lives, and successfully reopened businesses and schools. But in the U.S., Trump claimed, falsely, that “anybody that wants a test can get a test.” That was untrue in March and remained untrue through the summer. Trump opposed $25 billion for increased testing and tracing that was in a pandemic relief bill as late as July. These lapses accelerated the spread of disease through the country—particularly in highly vulnerable communities that include people of color, where deaths climbed disproportionately to those in the rest of the population.

It wasn't just a testing problem: if almost everyone in the U.S. wore masks in public, it could save about 66,000 lives by the beginning of December, according to projections from the University of Washington School of Medicine. Such a strategy would hurt no one. It would close no business. It would cost next to nothing. But Trump and his vice president flouted local mask rules, making it a point not to wear masks themselves in public appearances. Trump has openly supported people who ignored governors in Michigan and California and elsewhere as they tried to impose social distancing and restrict public activities to control the virus. He encouraged governors in Florida, Arizona and Texas who resisted these public health measures, saying in April—again, falsely—that “the worst days of the pandemic are behind us” and ignoring infectious disease experts who warned at the time of a dangerous rebound if safety measures were loosened.

In November, please vote as if your life depends on it. 

COVID19 Update - Day 188

US Tests: 87,560,761*

US Cases: 6,518,306*

US Deaths: 186,548*

Worldwide Cases: 29,303,757*

Worldwide Deaths: 928,963*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I crashed hard at around 8:00 last night, which is why this update has been delayed, and has no real content.

Regular updates to resume this evening (hopefully).

COVID19 Update - Day 187

US Tests: 86,819,950*

US Cases: 6,487,751*

US Deaths: 186,162*

Worldwide Cases: 28,884,453*

Worldwide Deaths: 922,212*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Get a flu shot.  Full disclosure: Prior to last February, I probably hadn't received a flu shot in more than 20 years.  In that time, I can only recall getting the flu once (when my son was less than a year old, and I had to spend a whole day taking care of him while his mom was at work --- THAT was horrible), and I just figured that the risk of getting the flu wasn't high enough to be worth the hassle of getting the shot.

But this year, things are different.

Public health officials, fearing that the confluence of Covid-19 and influenza cases could result in a “twindemic” that will further overburden hospitals and testing locations, are urging flu shots for nearly everyone, and the sooner the better.

“We don’t have many arrows in our quiver in terms of combating Covid,” said Dr. Kevin Ban, the chief medical officer for Walgreens, which began administering the vaccine across its stores on Aug. 17. That’s why medical professionals are focusing instead on minimizing flu cases, so “resources go where they need to,” he added.

Getting a flu shot this year isn't just about protecting yourself (if it ever was) --- it's about making sure that medical resources don't get overburdened during the pandemic.

I got my flu shot last Wednesday.  Be sure you do, too. 

COVID19 Update - Day 186

US Tests: 86,086,240*

US Cases: 6,449,208*

US Deaths: 185,630*

Worldwide Cases: 28,660,123*

Worldwide Deaths: 919,081*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

This shit has really got to stop.

The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.

But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the Health and Human Services department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.

Caputo and his team have attempted to add caveats to the CDC's findings, including an effort to retroactively change agency reports that they said wrongly inflated the risks of Covid-19 and should have made clear that Americans sickened by the virus may have been infected because of their own behavior, according to the individuals familiar with the situation and emails reviewed by POLITICO.

Caputo's team also has tried to halt the release of some CDC reports, including delaying a report that addressed how doctors were prescribing hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug favored by Trump as a coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The report, which was held for about a month after Caputo’s team raised questions about its authors’ political leanings, was finally published last week. It said that "the potential benefits of these drugs do not outweigh their risks."

When Trump was impeached, idiots like Susan Collins claimed that he had "learned a lesson" from the impeachment process, and promptly voted to acquit him.  And indeed, he did learn a lesson.  He learned that he can do practically anything he likes without consequence.  And he is.  He's remaking the CDC, the USPS, the DOJ, and any other arm of government you can name into a tool to serve his needs, rather than serving America.

If we aren't able to defeat Trump and his GOP enablers at the polls in November --- and resoundingly --- America as we know it won't be recognizable in four years. 

Take Back the Senate!

The presidential race is indeed the single most important race this election season --- but it's not as clear-cut as you might think.  Winning back the Senate is incredibly important, too.

On the one hand, consider how much President Biden will be able to accomplish if he's forced to work with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  And on the other hand, consider how much less damage Trump will be able to do in a second term if Republicans DON'T control the Senate --- all judicial appointments will come to a screeching halt, including most crucially any Supreme Court appointments.  And when Trump is inevitably impeached again, the Senate will be able to conduct a real trial, which might even pry loose a Republican vote or two (no, I don't delude myself into thinking there will be enough defections to remove him).

Personally, I am so concerned about Senate elections, that this cycle I am ONLY donating to Democratic Senate candidates (plus a token amount to my House representative), and not donating to the Biden campaign at all.  Something tells me he already has all the money he needs.

So, if you're like me, and you want to spend some money on Democratic Senate candidates, how can you get the most for your Senate dollar?  Never fear, I have done research!  And I'm here today to share it with you!

(If you really can't be bothered to read any more of my tedious prose, you can just donate here and let ActBlue sort it out.  Another [shorter] view of competitive Senate races can be found here)

I have split the Senate races into five categories --- well, really four, with a one-off:

• Top-tier Pickups: AZ, CO, ME, NC, GA, IA, KS, MT
• Stretch Goals: SC, AK, TX, MS, KY, AL
• Playing Defense: MI, MN, NM
• Long Shots: TN, WV, OK, ID, WY, SD
• Special: GA (yes, both Senate seats in Georgia are up for election this year)

Democrats have safe seats up for re-election in DE, IL, MA, NH, NJ, OR, RI and VA.

Republicans have two seats that I'm willing to concede as 'safe'.  I'm only willing to concede the Arkansas race because the Democrats aren't even running anyone against Tom Cotton.  Good job, Arkansas Democrats!  I'm also conceding the Nebraska Senate race, because Nebraska Democrats have abandoned their nominee, Chris Janicek.

I'm not going to discuss the Louisiana race, because if incumbent Republican Bill Cassidy doesn't win outright on November 3, there will be a runoff, so we can talk about his Democratic opponent then.

Anyway, put your money where you think it will do the most good.  I'm going to try to give something to all of the Democrats in the first four tiers.  Within each tier, I have listed races in order, with the race at the top being the one I think your money will do the most good.  Polling data, where available, can be viewed by clicking on the name of the state.

* - Incumbent party

(O) - Open seat

Top-tier Pickups

Here are eight golden opportunities to flip Senate seats.  If you give to no other Democratic candidates for Senate this year, make sure you give to these eight.

State	Candidates	Notes
Arizona	Democrat: Mark Kelly	McSally recently asked her constituents to "fast a meal" so they could contribute to her campaign.
	*Republican: Martha McSally
Colorado	Democrat: John Hickenlooper	Hickenlooper is a popular former Governor, while Gardner is a spineless Trump yes-man.
	*Republican: Cory Gardner
Maine	Democrat: Sara Gideon	Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him.  Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go.
	*Republican: Susan Collins
North Carolina	Democrat: Cal Cunningham
	*Republican: Thom Tillis
Georgia	Democrat: Jon Ossoff	In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district.
	*Republican: David Perdue
Iowa	Democrat: Theresa Greenfield	While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking.
	*Republican: Joni Ernst
Kansas	Democrat: Barbara Bollier	Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018.  And Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week.
	*(O) Republican: Roger Marshall
Montana	Democrat: Steve Bullock	Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times.
	*Republican: Steve Daines

Stretch Goals

The Democrat (one of them an incumbent) is a clear underdog in each of these races.  However, surprises do happen in political races, and 2020 could turn out to be a wave year.  In any case, it's worth a few bucks to make sure the Democrat in each of these races remains competitive.

State	Candidates	Notes
South Carolina	Democrat: Jaime Harrison	Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog.
	*Republican: Lindsey Graham
Alaska	Democrat: Al Gross	Although he ran in an won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent.  He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic.
	*Republican: Dan Sullivan
Texas	Democrat: MJ Hegar	Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided.
	*Republican: John Cornyn
Mississippi	Democrat: Mike Espy	Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate.
	*Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Kentucky	Democrat: Amy McGrath	McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell.
	*Republican: Mitch McConnell
Alabama	*Democrat: Doug Jones	As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent.  But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment.  Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud.
	Republican: Tommy Tuberville

Playing Defense

This election isn't just about flipping Republican seats, of course.  Democrats also need to hold on to the seats they have.  And while it's PROBABLY true that only one Democratic incumbent is really at risk (Doug Jones of Alabama --- see above), it's also a good idea to spend some resources making sure we keep the seats we've got.

State	Candidates	Notes
Michigan	*Democrat: Gary Peters	Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent.  Support for Peters will also likely help Biden in a key swing state.
	Republican: John James
Minnesota	*Democrat: Tina Smith	Lewis is a former talk-radio host, and has the agenda you would expect from one.  Think Rush Limbaugh.  In 2018 he ran as an 'independent Republican' and lost his seat in Congress.  Apparently he's now decided his best bet is to bear-hug Trump.  As with Peters, support for Tina Smith will also help Biden in a state where the polls are close.
	Republican: Jason Lewis
New Mexico	*(O)Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan	Lujan has consistently held a double-digit polling lead in a state Biden is likely to win easily, and Ronchetti is a political novice.  This race isn't likely to be close.
	Republican: Mark Ronchetti

Long Shots

I'm not going to lie: The chances are probably 95% or more that the Republicans hold all 6 of these Senate seats.  The main reason it's worth donating to the Democrats on this list is that if we starve Democrats forever in places like Tennessee, West Virginia and Idaho, then Democrats will NEVER be competitive in those states.

This is really more about the long game.  If Wyoming voters hear a solid message from a strong Democratic candidate, they may not vote for them in 2020, or 2022, or even 2024.  But persistence can change minds.

Also, the occasional upset DOES happen.

State	Candidates	Notes
Tennessee	Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw	This is Tennessee, and Hagerty won the Republican nomination by hugging Trump the hardest.  But Bradshaw is a true progressive, and scored a stunning upset in the Democratic race with practically no money.  Imagine what she might do if she HAS money.
	*(O) Republican: Bill Hagerty
West Virginia	Democrat: Paula Jean Swearengin	Moore-Capito appears to be a moderate Republican.  But she still voted to acquit Trump, while Swearengin is a true progressive, endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
	* Republican: Shelley Moore-Capito
Oklahoma	Democrat: Abby Broyles	Broyles is a progressive, running against someone who's held elective office for more than a half-century, and who knows he doesn't have to bother with debates.  While Broyles is clearly an underdog, some give her the best chance of winning of any Oklahoma Democrat in more than a decade.
	* Republican: James Inhofe
Idaho	Democrat: Paulette Jordan	Lather, rinse, repeat.  Risch is a heavy favorite in a deep red state, willing to lie for Trump.  Jordan is a sane progressive who recognizes the need for more #COVID19 stimulus.  She almost certainly won't win, but she still deserves support.
	* Republican: Jim Risch
Wyoming	Democrat: Merav Ben-David	Yeah, I give up.  This is Wyoming, and all of the news articles I can find with any content are behind a paywall.  So, you know, give some money to Ben-David, the anti-Trump candidate who will almost certainly lose.
	*(O) Republican: Cynthia Lummis
South Dakota	Democrat: Daniel Ahlers	Rounds is a typical Republican, reluctant to criticize Trump or white supremacists.  Ahlers is a typical Democrat, who desires to help people and work toward racial justice and so forth.
	* Republican: Mike Rounds

AND FINALLY --- there's the special election in Georgia, where appointed Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler will participate in a special election with multiple candidates from many parties (there is no primary).

Since it's unlikely that any candidate will receive a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two vote-getters will participate in a runoff election on January 5.  Loeffler certainly deserves to lose her seat --- in addition to being a mindless Trump drone, she is also almost certainly guilty of insider trading.  Also, Georgia is a state trending purple, so ordinarily I would put this race in the 'Top-Tier Pickups' column, along with the other Georgia race.

The problem is that there are TWO viable Democrats running, and like Loeffler, it's highly unlikely that either of them will receive a majority of the vote on November 3.  So donate to Matt Lieberman or Raphael Warnock if you like, but strategically, the best move is to sit this out and support whichever Democrat makes it through to the runoff election.