COVID19 Update - Day 153

US Tests: 62,455,492*

US Cases: 5,057,838*

US Deaths: 154,919*

Worldwide Cases: 19,971,615*

Worldwide Deaths: 732,889*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Today seems like a good day to remind everyone that, back in February, the U.S. Army project 150,000 U.S. deaths from #COVID19 as an absolute worst-case scenario.  A "black swan" event that, while possible, was still very unlikely.  From an article published on April 2:

This week, as coronavirus deaths in the U.S. spiraled up to surpass those killed on 9/11, the White House is conceding that an optimistic assessment of the coming death toll will leave between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans dead. But if the White House had heeded an Army warning nearly two months ago, it might have prompted earlier action to prevent an outbreak that threatens to kill more Americans than two to four Vietnam Wars.

An unclassified briefing document on the novel coronavirus prepared on Feb. 3 by U.S. Army-North projected that “between 80,000 and 150,000 could die.” It framed the projection as a “Black Swan” analysis, meaning an outlier event of extreme consequence but often understood as an unlikely one. 

In other words, the Army’s projections on Feb. 3 for the worst-case scenario in the coronavirus outbreak are, as of this week, the absolute best-case scenario—if not a miraculous one.

Put another way, the Army figured that even Trump couldn't screw things up this badly.  Although, to be fair to the Army, they probably didn't anticipate that Trump would encourage everyone to take hydroxychloriquine and inject bleach into their lungs, spend months demanding that we reopen the economy and avoid wearing masks, and then give up and go back to golfing 3 times a week. 

In personal news, I'm growing frustrated with my bank.  This doesn't seem like it's related to the virus, and maybe it isn't.  But most of my bank's branch offices have been closed for some time now, due to the virus.  Generally speaking, I agree that this is a good thing, but there are some times when one just absolutely, positively needs to meet with a banker in person.  And I've had one hell of a time making that happen.

Since the branch offices are closed, there's no point in calling them.  Which means I need to call the central 800 number, and do battle with their automated voice menu.  Fortunately, it doesn't take very long to reach an actual human.  Unfortunately, it seems that reaching an actual human does me no good.

I originally succeeded in scheduling an appointment to meet with a banker at my local branch at 3:00 on Friday.  When the time came, I pulled into the parking lot at my branch, and there was indeed a US Bank employee there --- only to tell people that the bank was closed and that all scheduled appointments had been cancelled.

So I returned home, did battle with the automated voice menu again, and scheduled another appointment at a different branch for 4:00 today.  Around noon, I received an email telling me the appointment had been cancelled, but with no explanation.

A third round with the central number was even less fruitful than usual.  The young man I spoke to was useless, telling me that he couldn't help me schedule an appointment.  So I figured out how to schedule appointments online, and now I have TWO different appointments scheduled for tomorrow and Wednesday at two different locations.  We'll see how that goes.

My concern is that the bank has actually shut down most (all?) of its branches, and these appointments I'm scheduling are actually phone appointments rather than in-person ones.  And so the reason for the repeated cancellation is that when someone realizes I'm expecting an in-person meeting, they cancel it.

I hope I can get this resolved soon.