COVID19 Update - Day 293

US Tests: 209,620,420*

US Cases: 19,072,721*

US Deaths: 326,322*

Worldwide Cases: 81,217,213*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,772,488*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

This will be my final daily post about the #TrumpVirus.  Sorry to disappoint the two or three folks who seem to be checking in somewhat regularly (hi, Dad!).

My reasons for ending daily updates are varied.  Partly it's because I'm planning to spend some quality time with my girlfriend over the next few days, which means no updates until at least January 3.  But it's also partly because the audience is very small.  With extremely limited interest, there's just no good reason to put in the work to write something every day unless I want to, and I don't want to.

Also, although it will likely be another 6 months before the crisis is truly over, there are multiple vaccines now on the market or soon to be approved.  We can see the light at the end of the tunnel.  Daily updates aren't really needed any more (if they ever were).

However, now is not the time to get complacent!  I discovered this accidentally, when looking up a response to one of the many #TrumpDeathCult #Maskholes on Twitter.  Apparently, the #TrumpVirus is now THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH in the United States.  Trump will no likely take great pride in this fact, since he loves to brag that he's number one:

Between November 1, 2020, and December 13, 2020, the 7-day moving average for daily COVID-19 deaths tripled, from 826 to 2430 deaths per day, and if this trend is unabated will soon surpass the daily rate observed at the height of the spring surge (2856 deaths per day on April 21, 2020). As occurred in the spring, COVID-19 has become the leading cause of death in the United States (daily mortality rates for heart disease and cancer, which for decades have been the 2 leading causes of death, are approximately 1700 and 1600 deaths per day, respectively). With COVID-19 mortality rates now exceeding these thresholds, this infectious disease has become deadlier than heart disease and cancer, and its lethality may increase further as transmission increases with holiday travel and gatherings and with the intensified indoor exposure that winter brings.

Cite this article to any Trump-humping drone you might have the misfortunate to engage in conversation.

Sorry, I was hoping to end things on a more hopeful note.

Happy Holidays to everyone!

COVID19 Update - Day 292

US Tests: 208,263,443*

US Cases: 18,907,656*

US Deaths: 324,796*

Worldwide Cases: 80,724,170*

Worldwide Deaths: 1763,714*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

This is a bit late, but it's still useful information.  I give you the Vox guide for how to survive winter and not spread the #TrumpVirus.

COVID19 Update - Day 291

US Tests: 207,104,407*

US Cases: 18,755,195*

US Deaths: 323,401*

Worldwide Cases: 80,273,645*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,756,435*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Bad news, good news, bad news.  A couple of days ago, I mentioned that there appears to be a new variant of the #TrumpVirus in Great Britain, one which spreads more quickly.  Vox has an update:

They don’t have this nailed down yet for sure, but four converging streams of evidence are all pointing in the same direction. “That’s making people feel like maybe there is something here to be worried about,” Hodcroft says. “Each one of these things on their own, I would say is not necessarily convincing.” But all together, they paint a concerning picture.

One is that in the areas of the UK where this new variant is spreading, it is accounting for a larger proportion of new cases. “What this implies is that this new variant is spreading better than other variants that are circulating in the same region,” she says.

A second is that the increase didn’t co-occur with any overly obvious change in human behavior. “We don’t really have strong evidence that everyone in the southeast [UK where this variant is spreading] has just ripped their masks off and is, you know, totally violating restrictions,” she says. That said, it could be a coincidence. It could be just that people who happen to have contracted this variant have it are spreading it more often via their behavior.

After all, “this new variant has emerged at a time of the year when there has traditionally been increased family and social mixing,” according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, which estimated that the transmissibility of the new variant has increased by 70 percent compared to prior versions of the virus. (Both Rasmussen and Hodcroft say the 70 percent more transmissible figure is most likely an overestimate.)

Third, there’s some early data about how this variant acts in Covid-19 patients. “There may be slightly higher viral loads in patients with the variants,” Hodcroft says, suggesting the virus has an easier time replicating in the body. (Viral load refers to the amount of virus in the patient. Rasmussen also cautions that viral load data is really sensitive to timing and when the patient was sampled in the course of the illness, so there needs to be more data to confirm this.)

Finally, the genetic changes in the UK variant mirror changes in the South African variant, which has also been associated with rising case numbers. That makes a plausible link: that this particular genetic change may be behind the increased transmissibility in both variants.

So, that's the bad news.  The good news is that there's no evidence (so far) that it's any more deadly than the original version.  More good news, according to Vox, is that we should respond to this new variant the same way we responded to the old one --- "Mask-wearing, social distancing, and good indoor ventilation are as critical as ever."

That's also the final piece of bad news --- since a sizable and particularly vocal chunk of the population has decided that they would rather be entitled crybabies than support "Mask-wearing, social distancing, and good indoor ventilation".

(I'm very proud of myself that I wrote that last paragraph without using swears). 

COVID19 Update - Day 290

US Tests: 205,385,745*

US Cases: 18,565,927*

US Deaths: 321,992*

Worldwide Cases: 79,793,342*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,749,235*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Many of us have good reason to be glad 2020 is ending.  But just now, I read a Facebook post from a nurse friend of mine who found things to be grateful for in 2020.  And not just a few things, but A LOT!  So, in the spirit of focusing on the positive, I give you this study about what may be the most effective way to encourage others to wear masks for another 4-6 months, until the vaccine brings us to herd immunity:

In one study, we asked more than 300 participants to think back to a time when they saw someone conform to their group. Some participants were asked to think about an instance when someone conformed because they wanted others to like them. Others were asked to think about a time when someone conformed for others’ sake. We then asked all of our participants to report what they thought about this person whose public behavior differed from their privately held beliefs. Did this person have a strong moral character? Were they competent people? Were they kind and friendly?

While participants in our research scoffed at conformity when it was perceived as selfish, they respected and appreciated benevolent conformity, seeing it as courageous and praiseworthy. Our experiments showed that Americans found people who conform to protect others’ feelings or to maintain group harmony to be warmer, more competent, and more authentic.

This is a key lesson for Biden and for governors who seek to enforce conformity to help protect people from a deadly virus. They should emphasize that sometimes conformity takes courage. This point should be made loud and clear: In the battle against Covid-19, the courageous and commendable thing to do is to put other people first.

So when presented with the idea that following Covid-19 safety measures is “weak” or “un-American,” public health experts should flip this argument on its head: emphasize the benefits of people’s helpful actions. Wherever possible, leaders must employ the benevolent conformity Americans seem to gravitate toward and respect.

We're all in this together! 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 289

US Tests: 204,297,572*

US Cases: 18,441,429*

US Deaths: 320,451*

Worldwide Cases: 79,344,712*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,741,394*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

There's been a lot of bad news surrounding the #TrumpVirus lately.  Let's try to end the year on a positive note, shall we?

Two new studies give encouraging evidence that having COVID-19 may offer some protection against future infections. Researchers found that people who made antibodies to the coronavirus were much less likely to test positive again for up to six months and maybe longer.

The results bode well for vaccines, which provoke the immune system to make antibodies — substances that attach to a virus and help it be eliminated.

Researchers found that people with antibodies from natural infections were “at much lower risk … on the order of the same kind of protection you’d get from an effective vaccine,” of getting the virus again, said Dr. Ned Sharpless, director of the U.S. National Cancer Institute.

“It’s very, very rare” to get reinfected, he said.

The institute’s study had nothing to do with cancer — many federal researchers have shifted to coronavirus work because of the pandemic.

Sure, there may be problems distributing the vaccine, but there's at least some evidence to suggest that once you have it, you really won't get infected!

Happy New Year! 

COVID19 Update - Day 288

US Tests: 202,829,194*

US Cases: 18,238,850*

US Deaths: 317,513*

Worldwide Cases: 78,679,912*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,730,126*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

This is why we need more people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashia Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley in Congress.  Because America is no longer working for working Americans.  ProPublica has a story out about how the #TrumpVirus ravaged a meat-packing town in Iowa.  But it's just the #TrumpDeathCult response on a smaller scale:

Across town, the MercyOne medical system set up a makeshift clinic in an old nursing home. Tyson employees arrived in a feverish daze, muscles failing, struggling to breathe. Three workers collapsed on the sidewalk outside the clinic. On a wooden shelf next to the front door, staff lined up the car keys, left by patients who’d driven to the clinic only to be rushed to the hospital by ambulance.

As cases multiplied, local officials like Ras Smith, an education consultant who represents Waterloo’s historically Black east side in the state Legislature, took calls from workers, frantic and fearful, about the conditions at the sprawling pork plant:

A coworker vomited on the line and management let him continue to work. … There are eight people working in front of me and another 10 or more behind me. … I am scared I will die because of work, but I need to work to buy food for my family.

Meanwhile, a lawsuit would later allege, top Tyson managers in Waterloo were directing interpreters to downplay the threat of infection at the plant, while privately making winner-take-all bets on how many workers would test positive. (Seven managers were fired last week).

With the scale of the crisis growing, Black Hawk County Sheriff Tony Thompson, who heads the county’s emergency management commission, joined with other local officials to urge Tyson to close the plant.

But they were rebuffed, not only by Tyson — whose CEO would publicly blame communities like Waterloo for bringing the virus into its plants — but by Gov. Kim Reynolds, who resisted virus restrictions and blocked local officials from shutting businesses themselves.

No one, Thompson realized, was going to stand up against Tyson. They were on their own.

If you think anything about the way the #TrumpDeathCult and big business runs this country has helped to make it great, this story will make you think again. 

COVID19 Update - Day 287

US Tests: 201,340,324*

US Cases: 18,016,698*

US Deaths: 314,099*

Worldwide Cases: 77,925,298*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,714,649*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

After nine months of fucking around --- Trump has decided that Americans desperately need more stimulus:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he is asking for changes to the coronavirus relief bill passed by Congress, leaving the future of the $900 billion stimulus in doubt.

"I'm asking Congress to amend this bill and increase the ridiculously low $600 to $2000 or $4000 per couple," Trump said in a video released on Twitter. "I'm also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items in this legislation or to send me a suitable bill."

The extraordinary message came after he largely left negotiations over the measure to lawmakers and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump did not explicitly threaten to veto the bill, but said he was dissatisfied with its final state.

The President's position could threaten to torpedo the carefully drafted bill, which his own administration helped negotiate -- a move that could lead to a government shutdown and send the economy into a tailspin if he carried through with a veto.

Still, Trump's message appeared to be greeted favorably by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who tweeted: "Republicans repeatedly refused to say what amount the President wanted for direct checks."

"At last, the President has agreed to $2,000 — Democrats are ready to bring this to the Floor this week by unanimous consent," she said. "Let's do it!"

Trump's statement was filmed by the White House and was not open to the press. Reporters did not have a chance to ask the President questions. It's unclear when the message was recorded.

The President has in the past said he would sign the bill, and earlier Tuesday the White House publicly defended the bill. But many of his allies have spoken out against the agreement passed.

This is probably just Trump's usual bluster.  But Democrats passed a bill with basically twice as much money 7 months ago, and it's taken Senate Republicans this long to even agree to this much.  Trump himself has completely ignored the process, instead preferring to hold one superspreader rally after another and swing a sledgehammer at the base of our democracy by refusing to accept his election loss.

But now that we're on the brink of actually passing more stimulus, Trump is speaking out against it.  My guess is that he'll cave (he usually does) and sign the bill in its current state.

But it wouldn't be completely surprising for him to refuse to sign any stimulus bill, preferring instead to create as much chaos as possible for his successor. 

COVID19 Update - Day 286

US Tests: 199,989,462*

US Cases: 17,828,084*

US Deaths: 310,968*

Worldwide Cases: 77,335,442*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,701,656*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

2020 isn't over yet.  So of course, it has to find yet another way to get worse (emphasis mine):

On 8 December, during a regular Tuesday meeting about the spread of the pandemic coronavirus in the United Kingdom, scientists and public health experts saw a diagram that made them sit up straight. Kent, in southeastern England, was experiencing a surge in cases, and a phylogenetic tree showing viral sequences from the county looked very strange, says Nick Loman, a microbial genomicist at the University of Birmingham. Not only were half the cases caused by one specific variant of SARS-CoV-2, but that variant (B.1.1.7) was sitting on a branch of the tree that literally stuck out from the rest of the data. “I’ve not seen a part of the tree that looks like this before,” Loman says.

. . .

In a press conference on Saturday, Chief Science Adviser Patrick Vallance said B.1.1.7, which first appeared in a virus isolated on 20 September, accounted for about 26% of cases in mid-November. “By the week commencing the ninth of December, these figures were much higher,” he said. “So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.” Johnson added that the slew of mutations may have increased the virus’ transmissibility by 70%.

I don't know about you, but I'm just about all funned out. 

COVID19 Update - Day 285

US Tests: 198,192,356*

US Cases: 17,647,893*

US Deaths: 309,449*

Worldwide Cases: 76,778,818*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,692,578*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

More caution on the vaccination front:

As Pfizer vaccine doses began arriving across the U.S. last week, HHS Secretary Alex Azar predicted on Monday that healthy Americans could begin to get vaccinated in the coming months. But an official with the administration’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine effort contradicted Azar on Thursday, saying the vaccine could be more widely available in the late spring or summer.

Murthy’s timeline puts the date for widespread vaccinations even later. 

“If everything goes well, then we may see a circumstance where by late spring, you know, people who are in lower-risk categories can get this vaccine, but that would really require everything to go exactly on schedule,” Murthy said.

The vaccine distribution has hit some early snags, as states last week reported that the federal government slashed their allocation of doses. Meanwhile, Pfizer said it has millions of doses waiting on warehouse shelves. Medical supply chain experts expressed bewilderment at the situation.

“When vaccines get produced and they remain in the warehouse, that means something went wrong with the supply chain,” Lee said. “That it was not coordinated,” CUNY Professor Bruce Y. Lee told TPM.

An Army general coordinating the vaccine rollout took responsibility for the confusion on Saturday.

Hoping for the best, obviously.  But we have to keep in mind that the gang who can't shoot straight is in charge for another month, and then there will be at least another month of chaos as the Biden administration settles in.

At least the new (and far overdue) #TrumpVirus relief bill includes funding for vaccine distribution, which is helpful.

Keep wearing those masks and socially distancing! 

COVID19 Update - Bonus Day 282 Post

Since I'm planning to take the next two days off from posting about the #TrumpVirus, I thought I would leave everyone with this cheery news </sarcasm>:

Some major problems are already emerging in the initial rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, and the federal government is not providing any good answers.

The early warning signs:

1.  At least twelve states are reporting cuts in their initial allocations of doses.
2. One governor is reporting that the total number of doses projected to be available nationwide has been cut by four million monthly.
3. The vaccine maker reports it is not having production problems and says it has doses in warehouses, but is awaiting direction from the federal government on where to send them.

Truly stunning that 71 million Americans DON'T think the Trump administration is horrendously incompetent.

Housekeeping Note

Just a heads-up to let folks know that posting will be sporadic through the end of the year.

In particular, there will be NO COVID updates tomorrow, December 18, or Saturday, December 19.

Management regrets any inconvenience.

COVID19 Update - Day 282

US Tests: 193,608,849*

US Cases: 17,004,147*

US Deaths: 302,261*

Worldwide Cases: 74,887,390*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,660,132*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

A couple of unfortunate milestones tonight.  For one thing, America has recorded more than 1 million new #TrumpVirus (1,047,712, to be exact) in just the past 5 days.  This is the largest number of new infections for any 5-day stretch of the pandemic.

For another, the United States has now recorded more than 300,000 deaths from the pandemic.  It seems like now would be a good time to recall that back in February, the U.S. Army projected that we *might* see half as many deaths --- 150,000 --- in an absolute worst-case, 'black swan' scenario.

This week, the Daily Beast viewed an Army briefing memo drafted on Feb. 3 predicting “between 80,000 and 150,000” coronavirus deaths in the United States. At the time, this was filed as a “Black Swan” report, usually a label reserved for extreme, unlikely scenarios. Even still, it prompted Secretary of Defense Mark Esper to order the military to begin “prudent planning” to prepare for a response to the pandemic.

As of Thursday, coronavirus deaths across the country surged towards 5,000. This came with dire new projections that show as many as 240,000 could die during the pandemic. In less than two months, the Army’s worst-case scenario memo appeared to have severely underestimated the potential danger.

Of course, the Army was likely operating under the mistaken assumption that the Trump administration would actually *try* to contain the virus.  Apparently emails were released today showing that their strategy was in fact the exact opposite. 

A top Trump appointee repeatedly urged top health officials to adopt a "herd immunity" approach to Covid-19 and allow millions of Americans to be infected by the virus, according to internal emails obtained by a House watchdog and shared with POLITICO.

“There is no other way, we need to establish herd, and it only comes about allowing the non-high risk groups expose themselves to the virus. PERIOD," then-science adviser Paul Alexander wrote on July 4 to his boss, Health and Human Services assistant secretary for public affairs Michael Caputo, and six other senior officials.

"Infants, kids, teens, young people, young adults, middle aged with no conditions etc. have zero to little risk….so we use them to develop herd…we want them infected…" Alexander added.

"[I]t may be that it will be best if we open up and flood the zone and let the kids and young folk get infected" in order to get "natural immunity…natural exposure," Alexander wrote on July 24 to Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn, Caputo and eight other senior officials. Caputo subsequently asked Alexander to research the idea, according to emails obtained by the House Oversight Committee's select subcommittee on coronavirus.

Alexander also argued that colleges should stay open to allow Covid-19 infections to spread, lamenting in a July 27 email to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield that “we essentially took off the battlefield the most potent weapon we had...younger healthy people, children, teens, young people who we needed to fastly [sic] infect themselves, spread it around, develop immunity, and help stop the spread.”

The stupidity of this approach should be all too obvious now.  This is precisely analogous to a fire chief demanding that we put the fire out by allowing it to consume all available fuel --- i.e. burn the house down.

Of course there's no good way to know how widely the virus would have spread and how many people would have died if the Trump administration had ACTUALLY TRIED TO STOP IT.  But it seems fair to lay the blame at their feet for every death above the 'black swan' estimate of 150,000. 

COVID19 Update - Day 281

US Tests: 192,085,022*

US Cases: 16,760,997*

US Deaths: 298,775*

Worldwide Cases: 74,115,894*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,646,942*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

(Sorry for skipping yesterday. Don't say you weren't warned about Tuesdays, though)

More reason to tamp down your hopes of getting a vaccine any time soon:

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar has been offering a rosy timeframe for when the COVID-19 vaccine will be widely available, but other officials working on the Pentagon-led effort to speed the virus to the public are now presenting a less optimistic forecast.

In remarks Thursday, officials from the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed projected that the COVID-19 vaccine would not begin to be widely available until late spring or summer.

The remarks by officials involved in the distribution effort came on a call hosted by the Association for Health Care Resource & Materials Management.

Army Col. Victor Suarez, a vaccine program manager at Operation Warp Speed, said on the call that “we want to make enough vaccine doses so that everybody who wants a vaccine in the United States can get a vaccine by this summer.”

“When vaccine becomes more plentiful in spring and summer, what you’re gonna see is more tiered groups opening up,” Suarez said at another point on the call, referring to the groups of people who the CDC has given priority to receive the vaccine, either due to the essential nature of their work or unique vulnerability to the virus.

Suarez’s remarks suggest that widespread availability of the vaccine ay not come until  deeper into the summer.

The problem --- predictably --- is that THERE IS NO NATIONAL PLAN for distributing the vaccine.  And so the question of when any particular individual receives it is up to the vagaries of the state in which they happen to live.

Heckuva job, Trumpies. 

COVID19 Update - Day 279

US Tests: 189,158,430*

US Cases: 16,339,404*

US Deaths: 292,404*

Worldwide Cases: 72,778,813*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,619,399*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

In case anyone is wondering, yes, Trump is going to prioritize politics over the lives of the American people right up to the bitter end (emphasis mine):

Congress has yet to appropriate any money for vaccine distribution. While the federal government has spent billions of dollars developing vaccines to prevent COVID-19, not a single federal dollar has been passed for the purpose of conducting the inoculation campaign itself.

Guilford County, which received $94 million in CARES Act funding that expires Dec. 31, expects to scrape together $1.2 million for public health in 2021.

“We’re trying to get it done, but it’s going to be hard,” Vann told TPM. “It’s disheartening to see that we don’t have that support to do our work without having to worry.”

In many cases, TPM found, local public health departments are in a similar place to Guilford County’s: they’ve spent months focused on fighting the pandemic, but have only just begun to plan for distributing the COVID-19 vaccine en masse. As they turn to that task, they face little help from the federal government; as the months have gone by, Congress has been unable to reach a deal on money for vaccine distribution.

Already burdened by limited budgets and what CDC Director Robert Redfield described as the “the most difficult” months in the history of U.S. public health, local departments could face delays in getting the life-saving shot out to their populations absent federal support as they lack cash to hire vaccinators, spread the word about how to get the vaccine and ensure that people show up for both shots of the two-dose inoculation.

Does anyone care to guess how motivated Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell are to provide the funding necessary to make sure that everyone gets vaccinated in a timely manner?  Especially since those vaccinations are going to happen during the Biden administration? 

COVID19 Update - Day 278

US Tests: 187,266,702*

US Cases: 16,143,319*

US Deaths: 291,017*

Worldwide Cases: 72,185,121*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,611,758*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Vaccinations start tomorrow, but now is not the time to get complacent.  We're still at the height of the worst spike thus far:

Sunday’s vaccine shipments come not a moment too soon. The coronavirus is currently spreading out of control in the US as deaths and hospitalizations from the virus rise to unprecedented levels.

As of Saturday, the country was averaging more than 208,000 new Covid-19 cases per day, according to the New York Times, after crossing the 200,000 per day mark for the first time on November 27.

And on Wednesday, the US reported more than 3,000 deaths in a single day for the first time ever. Hospitalizations broke the 100,000 mark for the first time earlier this month, and have climbed steadily ever since.

Things aren’t likely to get better for some time, either. According to CDC Director Robert Redfield, the US may well “have more deaths per day than we had in 9/11” for the next 60 to 90 days.

. . .

The pandemic is also leaving hospitals and health care workers depleted and exhausted. According to Dr. Vin Gupta, “there’s just not enough doctors, nurses and respiratory therapists to staff intensive care unit beds” in some places. In Mississippi, for instance, there are no ICU beds left.

Keep wearing those masks! 

 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 277

US Tests: 185,868,737*

US Cases: 15,956,435*

US Deaths: 289,535*

Worldwide Cases: 71,854,345*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,607,732*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sorry for the late update.  Last night, my son came over, and we were playing video games on the Wii.  Yes, THAT Wii, the one which came out in 2006.

The last thing we did was calculate our Wii Sports 'age'.  I won't tell you our real ages, but the 3 people who read this blog regularly know that my son is in his second year of college.

Hiw Wii Sports age was 54.  Mine was 28.  So you'll excuse me if I'm a bit preoccupied and not focused on the #TrumpVirus right now.

But I do actually have some news.  I've just started following another site which has data about the spread of the virus, but this is tracked out the country level, making the old COVID Exit Strategy site obsolete.  You should give it a look.

COVID Act Now

In fact, based on the data I'm seeing today, not only does it appear that we are CURRENTLY moving in the right direction (and I want to stress CURRENTLY --- we are backing down from all-time highs in daily infections, deaths and hospital beds in use, and we're still at dangerously high levels in most counties), but it's starting to look like there may not be a Thanksgiving spike after all.

Which, if true, gives me hope that we might not see a spike after Christmas/New Year's, either.  We can hope.

COVID19 Update - Day 276

US Tests: 184,230,752*

US Cases: 15,592,946*

US Deaths: 287,058*

Worldwide Cases: 70,111,812*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,591,595*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The vaccines are coming!  The vaccines are coming!  So F. Perry Wilson wrote a cautionary article for Vox, listing 9 things that could go wrong with the new vaccines.  In summary:

1. Unexpected long-term side effects (probability: low)
2. There won’t be enough vaccine for everyone (probability: low)
3. Vaccination becomes politicized (probability: low)
4. There won’t be enough vaccine supplies (probability: medium)
5. People won’t get both doses (probability: medium)
6. Doctors will bend the truth to help their patients get a vaccine faster (probability: medium)
7. Vaccines will exacerbate inequality in the health care system (probability: high)
8. A false sense of security develops (probability: high)
9. Anti-vaxxers amplify and misrepresent side effects (probability: almost certain)

As you might expect, there are more details at the link.  But because it doesn't get enough visibility, I'll zoom in on point 7, exacerbating inequality in the health care system:

There are currently 80 million people in the US with no regular access to doctor’s care, many of whom have significant comorbidities that no one is documenting. These are predominantly people of color and of lower socioeconomic status. These are also the people who have suffered most during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In other words, they are the people who would most benefit from the vaccine. And they may be left behind.

To prevent this, we need targeted vaccination programs in low-income and underresourced communities. We also need to waive comorbidity restrictions among those without access to quality health care. California’s proposal to consider “historical injustice” to vaccine allocation is not far off the mark.

I also think Wilson is too optimistic in suggesting a 'low' probability that vaccination will become politicized.  Obviously, there is no reason why it SHOULD be politicized.  But at this point in our nation's history, we should be able to see it coming.

There's no good reason why people should be willing to take up arms against a mandate requiring people to wear masks in public, or why a president who held multiple superpspreader campaign events during a pandemic, and suggested that we fight the virus by injecting bleach into our lungs, should receive the second-most votes ever in a national election, but here we are.

If you'll forgive the expression, for a large segment of the population, vice-signaling trumps common sense.  The probability of vaccination becoming politicized --- like all other common-sense responses to the #TrumpVirus --- is 'moderate' at least. 

COVID19 Update - Day 275

US Tests: 182,548,742*

US Cases: 15,360,841*

US Deaths: 283,555*

Worldwide Cases: 69,524,946*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,580,727*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Immunity is one thing; transmission is another.  By now, everyone knows that there are multiple #TrumpVirus vaccines about to hit the market, which is undoubtedly a good thing.  And giving people immunity --- even if only temporarily --- is important.

But there's another question which needs to be asked: Can someone who has been vaccinated still transmit the virus?

But while the vaccine has been found to confer immunity on those who take it, it’s still not clear whether the shot stops transmission. Researchers are racing for an answer to the question of whether those who are inoculated are also incapable of spreading COVID-19.

Not all vaccines put a stop to both illness and spread. Some vaccines for respiratory diseases stimulate the body’s immune response but allow the virus to remain in the respiratory system, facilitating transmission.

Specifically, an antibody that exists in the mucus and saliva can fail to be activated even as blood-borne antibodies effectively prevent disease.

“With respiratory illness in particular, transmission is dependent on whats in your nose and nasal pharynx,” Dr. Litjen Tan, chief strategy officer at the Immunization Action Coalition, told TPM. “You can be asymptomatic, but you’re spitting out virus.”

Because so few people have gotten the injections so far, there’s not yet data to measure how effective the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are at curbing spread. More information could reveal the extent to which the vaccines prevent spread, and further studies could reveal how soon after receiving the dual shots people become unable to spread the virus.

Something important to consider. 

COVID19 Update - Day 274

US Tests: 180,976,218*

US Cases: 15,142,845*

US Deaths: 280,454*

Worldwide Cases: 68,812,210*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,567,706*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The really annoying part is, it's unethical to give them what they really want.  Another group of #TrumpDeathCult maskholes are causing trouble, this time in Idaho:

According to the Idaho Statesmen, Boise Mayor Lauren McLean and Boise Police Chief Ryan Lee asked the CDH board to quickly adjourn a meeting where a vote on a public health order aimed at combatting the spread of coronavirus was scheduled to take place due to safety concerns amid demonstrations against the pack of measures.

Hundreds of demonstrators protested the order, which among other restrictions, would have limited gathering to fewer than 10 people and required face masks be worn in public and private around non-household members when social distancing is not possible.

The news comes as more than 111,800 coronavirus cases and at least 1,055 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in the state as infections continue to multiply.

According to the Statesmen, Lachiondo, in tears, told the board members upon her sudden departure that her son was home alone as demonstrators banged outside of her door. 

Another board member said protesters had swarmed outside of his house as well. Dr. Ted Epperly, told the Statesman that roughly 15 people were gathered outside of his home, “beating garbage cans and flashing strobe lights through my windows. Two came up and knocked on my door during the meeting.”

Off the top of my head, it seems that one way to deal with idiots like this is to go ahead and pass a mask ordinance, but allow people to be exempt from it provided they sign a waiver stating that they will refuse medical care in the event they contract the #TrumpVirus.  Speaking only for myself, I'm perfectly content to let these miserable people die miserably in their homes if they get sick.

But I'm pretty sure the Hippocratic Oath requires medical professionals to serve these idiots, even if they sign such a waiver.  Also, allowing them to opt-out of masking is a greater danger to others than it is to the maskholes.

I'm not sure there is a good solution.  But there is no doubt that Donald Trump is the virus' best friend. 

COVID19 Update - Day 273

US Tests: 179,494,127*

US Cases: 14,930,563*

US Deaths: 277,367*

Worldwide Cases: 68,414,122*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,560,630*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

No additional updates today, because reasons.

Tuesdays might be light going forward, FYI.

Management regrets any inconvenience.

COVID19 Update - Day 272

US Tests: 178,095,791*

US Cases: 14,717,065*

US Deaths: 274,745*

Worldwide Cases: 67,529,798*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,543,190*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

To be fair, Trump only said he wanted a vaccine by election day.  A few days ago, I cited a New York Times article projecting that a #TrumpVirus vaccine would be available to the general public by April.  It turns out there's one small detail the Times overlooked:

The Trump administration declined a late summer offer from Pfizer to purchase more doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, the New York Times reports.

That may mean that the U.S. will be unable to receive more doses from Pfizer beyond the initial 100 million that it purchased until June 2021, the newspaper reported. The European Union signed a contract for 200 million doses of the vaccine.

Pfizer’s vaccine requires two doses to be effective, meaning that the Trump administration secured doses for 50 million people. The administration signed a similar contract for 100 million doses of Moderna’s two-shot vaccine, suggesting that the federal government has secured doses to inoculate 100 million Americans from the two candidates on the verge of regulatory approval.

It wasn’t clear why the Trump administration refused the offer from Pfizer. When Operation Warp Speed initially purchased doses of the vaccine, the contract came with an option to purchase 500 million more.

Forbes reported on Monday that HHS has not exercised that option. Pfizer told the Times that “the company is not able to comment on any confidential discussions that may be taking place with the U.S. government.”

This is mind-boggling.  Even taking into account the likelihood that the Trump administration is incapable of dividing by two, they STILL only secured the rights to 200 million doses of vaccine for a population of 328 million people.

Every day, they find a new way to stun you with incompetence. 

COVID19 Update - Day 271

US Tests: 176,510,329*

US Cases: 14,524,035*

US Deaths: 273,374*

Worldwide Cases: 66,974,627*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,534,692*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Tonight, a few words about the AstraZeneca #TrumpVirus vaccine, the one for which my company is participating in Phase 3 trials:

Among the Covid-19 vaccines furthest along in development, the AstraZeneca-Oxford candidate is among the most likely to be affordable to low- and middle-income countries. And considering much of the world’s population currently lives in low- and middle-income settings, it’s the jab that — with a 90 percent efficacy result — could make a big dent in the pandemic worldwide.

It also uses a novel approach to inoculation, one that’s different from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — and from conventional vaccines.

Vaccine makers have typically used the virus itself or a fragment of the virus, often in a weakened or inactivated form, to inoculate recipients. But this new generation of vaccines uses genetic instructions for making parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19. All three candidates — Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca-Oxford — deliver the instructions for making the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, or the part of the virus that lets it enter human cells. And it’s these instructions, which human cells then use to manufacture parts of the virus, that are injected into vaccine recipients, essentially coaching the immune system to fight off the invader should it arrive.

The Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines both use mRNA as their platform for delivering the genetic instructions. AstraZeneca-Oxford’s uses DNA instead, and the DNA is delivered to cells with the help of another virus known as an adenovirus. (Other Covid-19 vaccine developers, like CanSino Biologics and Johnson & Johnson, are also using adenovirus vectors.)

AstraZeneca, unlike Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, has promised to sell its shot at cost — around $3 to $4 — and not to profit from the vaccine while the pandemic is ongoing (though public money has gone into funding its research effort). According to the FT, that price is “a fraction” of the expense of the other vaccine candidates, which are expected to cost between $15 and $25 per dose.

COVID19 Update - Day 270

US Tests: 175,170,968*

US Cases: 14,357,264*

US Deaths: 272,236*

Worldwide Cases: 66,442,618*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,527,209*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another day, another record number of cases.  It looks like this will be the norm for a while --- because watching other people get sick and die is easier than wearing a mask to Costco, apparently.

Coronavirus infections continue to spread at record levels in the United States, reaching a new daily high of nearly 228,000 cases on Friday.

The 227,885 cases eclipses the previous high of more than 217,000 on Thursday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

The seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 attributable deaths in the U.S. has passed 2,000 for the first time since the spring. It reached 2,011 on Friday. Two weeks ago, the seven-day average was 1,448. There were 2,607 deaths reported in the U.S. on Friday.

In Washington, optimism is finally building for a COVID-19 aid bill that would offer relief for businesses, the unemployed, schools and health care providers.

A coronavirus surge hitting much of the U.S. is threatening to overwhelm hospitals in California. Five San Francisco Bay Area counties have imposed a new stay-at-home order for their residents that will take effect Sunday. Much of the rest of the state could join this weekend.

*Sigh* 

COVID19 Update - Day 269

US Tests: 173,432,900*

US Cases: 14,146,191*

US Deaths: 269,791*

Worldwide Cases: 65,842,942*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,518,560*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

How does one date during a pandemic? A friend of mine asked me this question recently.

My answer: Agonizingly.

Take for example this weekend, when once again I was planning to spend the weekend with my girlfriend at my place.  And for the second time in as many weekends, I'm sitting home alone writing my sad, pathetic blog.

Where did I go wrong this time?  Well, two things went wrong, actually.  For one thing, I got a stinking cold.  Again.  At least, I'm pretty sure it's just (another) mild cold.  But because it *could* be the #TrumpVirus, I had to go and get tested.  Again.  Only this time, it seemed like they kept the swab pressed against my brain for something like four or five hours.  Of course if I'm lucky, I'll get a negative result back sometime tomorrow, and I can see my sweetie after all.

But our plans were already wrecked even before that happened, because my son came home from college last Wednesday (the 25th) for Thanksgiving.  And we all knew there was some risk there --- recall that one of his roommates tested positive earlier in the fall --- but after the first couple of days back, it seemed like maybe everything would be okay.

But then on Black Friday, we learned that his OTHER roommate had tested positive.  And even though my son tested negative with a rapid test on Saturday, my girlfriend still wanted to wait almost 2 full weeks before once again sharing a bubble.  And I don't blame her --- as I mentioned a few days ago, rapid tests are practically useless when testing someone who is asymptomatic, like my son.

The upshot being, instead of spending a fun evening in one another's arms, cuddling on the couch and watching The Good Place (she's never seen it), we instead met in the parking lot of a Chipotle, ordered takeout, and then each sat in our individual cars and talked to each other via speakerphone before putting on our masks and spending a couple of hours walking around a lake while maintaining a more-or-less 6 foot separation the whole time.  No, we did not hold hands, not even while wearing gloves.

*sigh*

At least the silver lining is, thanks to my cold and subsequent #TrumpVirus test, we MAY end up cuddling this weekend after all.

And when can I get the goddamn vaccine, anyway?  I addressed this question last week, but the New York Times published some answers a couple of days ago which I like better, so let's take a look at those:

January: Keep in mind that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require a second dose a few weeks later to be effective. So an initial batch of 40 million doses would be enough to vaccinate only 20 million people.

By early next year, Pfizer and Moderna are likely to be able to ship about 70 million doses per month, Moncef Slaoui, a top federal vaccine official, told The Washington Post yesterday. People will likely receive the shots at doctor’s offices, hospitals and pharmacies, as well as at specially created clinics in some places, my colleague Katie Thomas says.

February and March: The next priority groups are likely to be people over the age of 65 (and especially those over 75); people with medical conditions that put them at risk of death if infected; and essential workers, like those in education, food, transportation and law enforcement.

One exception to this second wave of vaccine recipients may be people who have already had the virus, making them immune from it for at least some period of time.

If other companies in addition to Pfizer and Moderna receive approval for their vaccines, the total number shipped each month could reach 150 million by March, Slaoui said.

April, May and June: The most likely scenario is that even people who don’t qualify as a priority — like healthy, nonessential workers younger than 65 — will begin receiving the vaccine by the spring. The vast majority of Americans could be vaccinated by early summer.

I have a bit of a reputation for hating Minnesota winters.  But now I have one more reason to feel as though spring can't get here soon enough. 

COVID19 Update - Day 268

US Tests: 170,952,162*

US Cases: 13,921,312*

US Deaths: 267,228*

Worldwide Cases: 65,111,866*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,504,303*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

As a Minnesotan, I would like to ask South Dakota and Iowa to knock it off.  ProPublica has a story about how certain states are effectively peeing in the swimming pool, and making things worse for those of us trying to do the responsible thing.

Nowhere are these regulatory disparities more counterproductive and jarring than in the border areas between restrictive and permissive states; for example, between Washington and Idaho, Minnesota and South Dakota, and Illinois and Iowa. In each pairing, one state has imposed tough and sometimes unpopular restrictions on behavior, only to be confounded by a neighbor’s leniency. Like factories whose emissions boost asthma rates for miles around, a state’s lax public health policies can wreak damage beyond its borders.

“In some ways, the whole country is essentially living with the strategy of the least effective states because states interconnect and one state not doing a good job will continue to spread the virus to other states,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. “States can’t wall themselves off.”

A motorcycle rally in August in Sturgis, South Dakota, with half a million attendees from around the country spread COVID-19 to neighboring Minnesota and beyond, according to Melanie Firestone, an epidemic intelligence service officer for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who co-authored a report on the event’s impact.

South Dakota “didn’t have policies regarding mask use or event size, and we see that there was an impact in a state that did have such policies,” Firestone said. “The findings from this outbreak support having consistent approaches across states. We are all in it together when it comes to stopping the spread of COVID-19.”

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem seems to be doing all she can to win the title of worst response to the #TrumpVirus.  She has resisted putting common-sense policies in place, even as her own grandmother's nursing home is ravaged by the virus. We can't know whether Noem is motivated by her hatred of science or her love of Trump, but we do know that apparently her grandmother means less to her than either of those things.

UPDATE: And also ---

BREAKING: In just 24 hours, the U.S. has broken every record set since the pandemic began 10 months ago, with more new infections, hospitalizations and deaths in a single day than ever before.@NorahODonnell has the latest pic.twitter.com/B2eH28nGrS

— CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) December 3, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 267

US Tests: 169,524,104*

US Cases: 13,711,151*

US Deaths: 264,522*

Worldwide Cases: 64,433,937*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,490,725*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Let's see --- yesterday we did blame, and the day before we did hope, so today must be the day for fear again:

During an event hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday, Redfield noted that about 90% of hospitals in the country are in “hot zones and the red zones” and that 90% of long-term care facilities are in areas with high levels of COVID-19 infections.

“So we are at a very critical time right now about being able to maintain the resilience of our health-care system,” Redfield said.

Redfield issued a dire warning heading into the next few months, citing the strain on medical facilities in light of surging COVID-19 cases throughout the country.

“The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times,” Redfield said. “I actually believe they’re going to be the most difficult in the public health history of this nation, largely because of the stress that’s going to be put on our health-care system.”

You know the drill.  The only question is, how many people will decide it's still just fine to, say, go to an indoor ice-skating rink without masks? 

COVID19 Update - Day 266

US Tests: 168,268,441*

US Cases: 13,515,234*

US Deaths: 261,789*

Worldwide Cases: 63,790,774*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,479,446*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

A sobering look at what might have been.  The good news is that the Cherokee Nation in Oklahoma is dealing with the #TrumpVirus just fine, thank you.  The bad news is that, due to leadership which is several orders of magnitude less competent, the rest of the U.S. is in horrible shape.

With a mask mandate in place since spring, free drive-through testing, hospitals well-stocked with PPE, and a small army of public health officers fully supported by their chief, the Cherokee Nation has been able to curtail its Covid-19 case and death rates even as those numbers surge in surrounding Oklahoma, where the White House coronavirus task force says spread is unyielding.

Elsewhere in the U.S., tribal areas have been hit hard by the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that American Indian and Alaskan Native populations have case rates 3.5 times higher than that of white individuals. The Navajo Nation, where Covid testing, PPE, and sometimes even running water are in short supply, has seen nearly 13,000 cases and 602 deaths among its roughly 170,000 citizens. The Cherokee Nation, with about 140,000 citizens on its reservation in northeastern Oklahoma, has reported just over 4,000 cases and 33 deaths.

“It’s dire, but what in the world would it look like if we weren’t doing this work?’” said Lisa Pivec, senior director of public health for Cherokee Nation Health Services. Pivec leads a team that jumped into action in late February, holding coronavirus task force meetings twice a day, instituting procedures to screen thousands of employees, stockpiling PPE, protecting elders, ensuring food security, and educating residents in both English and Cherokee language. With no guidance on contact tracing available from the CDC early in the pandemic, Pivec researched the World Health Organization’s Ebola response to set up tracing protocols; after the first case appeared on the reservation March 24, she made many of the contact tracing calls herself.

She said the Cherokee Nation has seen no cases of workplace transmission; Sequoyah High School, with rapid testing and masks, reopened for in-person learning this fall; and elective medical and dental procedures have been widely restored.

The tribe’s Covid response meets the approval of global health leaders. “It’s very impressive. It’s a reminder of how much leadership matters and how even under difficult circumstances, with limited resources, you can make a huge difference,” said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. “It fits with what I’ve seen in the world. You see countries like Vietnam. They’re not a wealthy country, but they’ve been following the science and doing a great job.”

If the U.S. had acted as the Cherokee Nation did, “we would be doing so much better,” Jha added, “with tens of thousands of fewer deaths, and probably a much more robust economy.”

That last paragraph deserves special attention, so let's give it some:

If the U.S. had acted as the Cherokee Nation did, “we would be doing so much better,” Jha added, “with tens of thousands of fewer deaths, and probably a much more robust economy.”

Remember this the next time you hear some #TrumpDeathCult drone tell you that 'masks don't work', or 'contact tracing doesn't work', or 'there's nothing more we could have done'. 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 265

US Tests: 167,200,562*

US Cases: 13,337,969*

US Deaths: 259,075*

Worldwide Cases: 63,154,049*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,466,436*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

More good news on the vaccine front.  It appears that Moderna's vaccine is about 95% effective in preventing the #TrumpVirus --- and 100% effective in preventing severe infection:

Of the 196 Covid-19 cases in the trial, 185 were in the placebo group and only 11 in the vaccine group, Moderna reported.

Even more important, the vaccine — called mRNA-1273 — appears to protect against severe disease, not just asymptomatic or mild cases. Of the 30 severe Covid-19 cases among trial participants, all occurred in the placebo group. If the finding is real, it would likely mean averted deaths and hospitalizations when millions of people are immunized.

“You’ve got 100 percent protection against severe disease,” Paul Offit, an infectious disease and vaccine researcher at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told Vox. “That’s remarkable.”

“If these numbers are right, it’s more than we’d need for the vaccine to be a major control measure for this outbreak,” said Eric Rubin, an infectious disease specialist and the editor-in-chief of the New England Journal of Medicine.

Moderna’s CEO, Stéphane Bancel, said in the press release that the company plans to request an Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, which would allow the vaccine to be used in limited cases for people facing some of the highest risk of exposure to Covid-19, like health care workers. “We believe that our vaccine will provide a new and powerful tool that may change the course of this pandemic and help prevent severe disease, hospitalizations and death,” he added.

 

COVID19 Update - Day 264

US Tests: 165,829,155*

US Cases: 13,188,777*

US Deaths: 257,920*

Worldwide Cases: 62,670,153*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,458,360*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Nothing much, just every member of the White House #TrumpVirus task force warning that the situation is about to get much, much worse, thanks to the general refusal of people to behave responsibly over Thanksgiving.  A sample:

During an interview on CBS, Birx warned that the country is “entering this post-Thanksgiving surge with three, four and 10 times as much disease across the country” compared to the “second wave” heading into Memorial Day weekend.

Birx recalled that there were less than 25,000 COVID-19 cases a day before Memorial Day weekend.

“We saw what happened post-Memorial Day. Now we are deeply worried about what could happen post-Thanksgiving because the number of cases, 25,000 versus 180,000 a day, that’s where — that’s why we are deeply concerned,” Birx said, before adding that there was some improvement in the Northern Plains states prior to the holiday. “And now with Thanksgiving, we’re worried that all of that will be reversed.”

 

COVID19 Update - Day 263

US Tests: 164,804,756*

US Cases: 13,053,244*

US Deaths: 257,106*

Worldwide Cases: 62,094,127*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,449,709*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The virus strikes close to home again.  About six weeks ago, I posted an email from my son, who's in his sophomore year of college, about a number of #TrumpVirus cases on his campus.  Like most college campuses, the virus found many welcoming hosts on his.

Ultimately, one of his roommates tested positive and moved into quarantine.  Amazingly, my son and his other roommate both tested negative.  So although my ex-wife and I both encouraged them to shelter in place (and we drove supplies up to them), they never formally quarantined.

On Wednesday, he cam home for Thanksgiving.  And we decided to bite the bullet and allow him back into our bubble without any kind of quarantine and so forth.  This may have been a mistake.

Yesterday --- the Friday after Thanksgiving --- we discovered that his OTHER roommate has tested positive.  Obviously, this meant our son would need another test.  Since he is on his mothers' insurance --- and since his mother and I are divorced --- she arranged the test without consulting me.  And it turns out the test she arranged for him is one of those 'rapid' #TrumpVirus tests.  It came back negative.

The negative result is somewhat reassuring, but --- as I discovered with a bit of research --- probably meaningless.  The reason is that my son is showing no symptoms of any kind:

The three tests are authorized for the most straightforward cases: people with COVID-19 symptoms in the first week of symptoms. That’s how they were validated. They produced virtually no false positives that way and were 84% to 97% as sensitive as lab tests, meaning they caught that range of the samples deemed positive by PCR.

Yet HHS allowed their use for large-scale asymptomatic screening without fully exploring the consequences, Pettengill said.

A recent study, not yet peer reviewed, found the Quidel test detected over 80% of cases when used on symptomatic people and those with known exposures to the virus, but only 32% among people without symptoms, The New York Times reported.

So there's a good chance his test was a false negative.  On the other hand, since he's asymptomatic, it's not clear that a more accurate PCR test would have returned a positive result (if he's infected).  It's my understanding that it takes about 5 days from exposure for tests to detect infection, and since he's asymptomatic, we have no idea about exactly when he was exposed.

For the sake of everyone's safety, I'm don't plan to be around anyone other than immediate family (all of whom have been exposed to my son) until at least 10 days after I was first exposed to him.  I think it's almost certain that one of us (out of three) will show symptoms during that time if he was infected and passed it along to us.

So --- the pandemic keeps life interesting. 

 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 262

US Tests: 163,385,651*

US Cases: 12,901,146*

US Deaths: 255,904*

Worldwide Cases: 61,585,651*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,441,875*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

There's good news, and there's bad news.  First, the good news:

The CDC estimates there are 21 million healthcare personnel, 87 million essential workers, 100 million adults with high-risk medical conditions and 53 million others 65 and older. The federal government has said 40 million coronavirus vaccine doses could be available by the end of December.

Dr. Larry Corey of the University of Washington, who is heading up coronavirus vaccine clinical trials in the US, has said if both Pfizer and Moderna get vaccines authorized, they could supply 50 million more doses in January and 60 million more in February and March.

But here's the bad news (emphasis mine):

Those vaccines require two doses taken three to four weeks apart to be effective, so that would mean roughly enough vaccines to cover 75 million people by the end of March.

ACIP's priorities will help decide who gets access to those scarce vaccines first.

"The plan is to roll out doses of vaccines over the next few weeks to months in order to cover the 1a, 1b and 1c groups. There are not going to be sufficient vaccines for everybody in the first allotment," Romero said.

"It is important for the public to understand that we are dealing with select groups of individuals -- not the general public."

I completely understand the need to prioritize health-care workers and high-risk populations with vaccinations, and I also understand that it will take some time for vaccines to be produced and distributed.  However, I'm still a bit disappointed to see the expectation that ONLY about one-quarter of the U.S. population will be vaccinated by April 1.  I was hopeful that the pandemic would be largely finished by then.

*sigh* 

 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 261

US Tests: 161,682,011*

US Cases: 12,706,167*

US Deaths: 254,530*

Worldwide Cases: 60,856,294*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,429,689*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

They'd better pray.  In the first Supreme Court decision since Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed, the court struck down a public safety ordinance in the state of New York limiting the number of people who can attend a church, mosque or synagogue:

In all, the late-night ruling consisted of six different opinions.

Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote his own concurrence -- joined by no other justice -- to explain his vote.

He said that other businesses such as bicycle repair shops, did not have similar restrictions.

"So, at least according to the Governor, it may be unsafe to go to church, but it is always fine to pick up another bottle of wine" or "shop for a new bike," Gorsuch wrote.

I'm not sure exactly what Neil Gorsuch does when he picks up a bottle of wine or shops for a new bike, but at least in my experience, it DOESN'T involve spending an hour or more indoors with a large group of people, and breaking into song on occasion.

I'm not a religious person, but I honestly don't know why any place of worship would WANT to continue holding in-person services during a pandemic, anyway.

Future generations will look back on this time as the time of the great stupid.

COVID19 Update - Day 260

US Tests: 160,710,709*

US Cases: 12,581,085*

US Deaths: 253,211*

Worldwide Cases: 60,258,815*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,418,610*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

On a day when the U.S. recorded nearly 2,500 new #TrumpVirus deaths, let's try for hope instead of fear:

“There is real hope, tangible hope. So hang on. Don’t let yourself surrender to the fatigue,” Biden said in an address from Wilmington, Delaware, lauding the emergence of promising COVID-19 vaccines poised for distribution. He urged Americans to be vigilant in observing guidance issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to combat the spread of the coronavirus over the Thanksgiving holiday.

The message — mask-wearing and social-distancing, were not new — and yet President Trump who has bunkered strongly since his electoral defeat has remained largely silent in his leadership on curbing the virus even as coronavirus deaths have topped more than a quarter-million in the U.S.

“America is not going to lose this war. You will get your lives back. Life is going to return to normal,” Biden said.

The incoming President offered a thinly-veiled criticism of President Trump’s pandemic response, suggesting that none of the science-driven guidance that would be put forward in the coming months as he takes his place in the White House would take sides in a partisan fight. 

“None of these steps we’re asking people to take are political statements,” Biden said. “Every one of them is based in science.”

The comments which were consistent with remarks the President-elect made after he was declared the projected winner of the presidential election on Nov. 7, when he said that he would “marshal the forces of science” to battle the coronavirus pandemic. At that time he vowed to make a national pandemic response his top priority even before he is inaugurated as President.

The remarks on Wednesday were a sharp departure from President Donald Trump’s continuous efforts to undermine the wisdom of scientists and health experts within his own administration with regard to battling the coronavirus pandemic.

It's easy to look at Biden's speech, check the calendar, and conclude that anything he does will be too little, too late.  But the more optimistic view is that a president who takes the pandemic seriously is FAR better than one who suggested injecting disinfectant into the lungs.

COVID19 Update - Day 259

US Tests: 159,365,449*

US Cases: 12,397,144*

US Deaths: 250,925*

Worldwide Cases: 59,939,306*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,412,669*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

No additional news tonight.  Because reasons.

COVID19 Update - Day 258

US Tests: 157,846,226*

US Cases: 12,230,472*

US Deaths: 248,897*

Worldwide Cases: 59,124,046*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,395,519*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Today, let's focus on some genuinely good news:

AstraZeneca is the third major drug company to report late-stage data for a potential COVID-19 vaccine as the world waits for scientific breakthroughs that will end a pandemic that has pummeled the world economy and led to 1.4 million deaths. But unlike the others, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine doesn’t have to be stored at freezer temperatures, making it potentially easier to distribute, especially in developing countries.

“I think these are really exciting results,” Dr. Andrew Pollard, chief investigator for the trial, said at a news conference. “Because the vaccine can be stored at fridge temperatures, it can be distributed around the world using the normal immunization distribution system. And so our goal … to make sure that we have a vaccine that was accessible everywhere, I think we’ve actually managed to do that.”

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in one of the dosing regimens tested; it was less effective in another. Earlier this month, rival drugmakers Pfizer and Moderna reported preliminary results from late-stage trials showing their vaccines were almost 95% effective.

While the AstraZeneca vaccine can be stored at 2 degrees to 8 degrees Celsius (36 degrees to 46 degrees Fahrenheit), the Pfizer and Moderna products must be stored at freezer temperatures. In Pfizer’s case, it must be kept at the ultra-cold temperature of around minus-70 degrees Celsius (minus-94 Fahrenheit).

The AstraZeneca vaccine is also cheaper.

AstraZeneca, which has pledged it won’t make a profit on the vaccine during the pandemic, has reached agreements with governments and international health organizations that put its cost at about $2.50 a dose. Pfizer’s vaccine costs about $20, while Moderna’s is $15 to $25, based on agreements the companies have struck to supply their vaccines to the U.S. government.

All three vaccines must be approved by regulators before they can be widely distributed.

I must admit, I'm kind of rooting for the AstraZeneca vaccine, for no particularly good reason --- other than the fact that I work for one of the health care systems who partnered with AstraZeneca for its trial.  But the drastically lower price point and the fact that it requires only ordinary refrigeration, rather than the "ultra-cold temperature" of its competitors, makes it seem like the clear leader in my mind.

COVID19 Update - Day 257

US Tests: 156,339,040*

US Cases: 12,077,354*

US Deaths: 247,932*

Worldwide Cases: 58,563,451*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,386,465*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another grim milestone, as the U.S. recorded its 12 millionth case of the #TrumpVirus today.  Fortunately, I am not among them.  I received my test result just about 24 hours ago, and I tested negative.  Yay!

Nevertheless, this is another reminder that things are bad and getting worse.  If we arbitrarily choose March 11 as our starting point (the date I started blogging about the virus regularly), here is the number of days it took to reach 1 million additional cases:

• One million: 49 days
• Two million: 44 days
• Three million: 27 days
• Four million: 15 days
• Five million: 17 days
• Six million: 23 days
• Seven million: 25 days
• 8 million: 20 days
• 9 million: 16 days
• 10 million: 9 days
• 11 million: 6 days
• 12 million: 6 days

With Thanksgiving right around the corner, it's not unreasonable to expect that we might see ONE MILLION NEW CASES PER DAY in the U.S. before the end of the year.

So let's take a look at how treatments/vaccines are coming along:

The emergency approval comes as two possible Covid-19 vaccines have gotten a lot of attention recently. Pfizer, creator of one of the vaccines, said it recently wrapped up its clinical trial successfully, and submitted an application for emergency approval from the FDA on Friday, while another company, Moderna, said it would be applying soon. Health officials had hoped that antibody treatments like Regeneron’s would help address cases in the time before vaccines become widely available.

Regeneron’s antibody cocktail is just one of several experimental treatments for Covid-19. There’s also convalescent plasma, which is taken from people who were infected with the virus but later recovered

. . .

[T]he FDA isn’t completely sure Regeneron’s treatment works, but in its announcement, the FDA said it “has determined that it is reasonable to believe that casirivimab and imdevimab administered together may be effective in treating patients with mild or moderate COVID-19.” Ahead of submitting the treatment for its EUA, Regeneron said it planned to continue trials that included a variety of hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals.

This uncertainty has led some health experts to express concern about the fast-tracking process for approval of potential viral treatments. In September, the National Institutes of Health criticized the FDA’s emergency authorization for convalescent plasma, saying, “There are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of convalescent plasma.”

At the moment, peer reviewed research hasn’t yet been published on Regeneron’s antibody treatment, so experts can only go by data presented in company press releases purporting to show the treatment works. The FDA believes it has seen enough to allow its use, however, giving doctors one more option to consider as cases rise.

From where I sit, it looks like we need to get those vaccines to market as quickly as is safely possible. 

COVID19 Update - Day 256

US Tests: 154,937,873*

US Cases: 11,927,256*

US Deaths: 247,043*

Worldwide Cases: 57,985,648*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,378,567*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

We've beaten the 'Trump doesn't care whether you live or die' horse for a while, so I suppose it's time to go beat the 'we could be doing so much better with effective leadership' horse some more:

Researchers studying Covid-19 policy say Vermont’s successes are inextricably linked to its approach to helping at-risk groups avoid the virus. “Vermont’s prioritization of its vulnerable populations has helped both to protect those [people] from the worst outcomes we’ve seen in other settings but also contributed to the much lower transmission rates in the state,” said Anne Sosin, the program director of Dartmouth College’s Center for Global Health Equity.

“If we look globally,” Sosin continued, “the countries that have done better [with Covid-19] prioritized their vulnerable populations.”

Vermont’s health leaders recognized this very early in the pandemic. And instead of relying only on stay-at-home orders or curfews — which tend to benefit people who can work from home or fully isolate if they test positive — the government designed a response with the needs of high-risk groups in mind.

The package of measures now includes state-supported housing for the homeless, hazard pay, meal deliveries, and free, pop-up testing in at-risk communities. The state’s Republican governor, Phil Scott, is even proposing $1,000 stipends for people who’ve been asked to self-isolate.

Most states have “been using really blunt public health and policy measures to respond to the pandemic,” Sosin said. Vermont highlights a different way. When governments “tailor responses to the needs of our most vulnerable populations,” she added, “we can stop the virus and save lives.”

It's amazing how much better off EVERYONE is when the most vulnerable in our society are taken care of.  Of course, that requires empathy, something which is in sadly short supply these days. 

COVID19 Update - Day 255

US Tests: 153,332,392*

US Cases: 11,748,947*

US Deaths: 245,537*

Worldwide Cases: 57,517,850*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,371,589*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Personal news first tonight.

I'm in love!

And if you're asking yourself what that has to do with the #TrumpVirus, then clearly you haven't tried dating at any time in the past 8 months.

The problem, of course, is that she and I are both in our own bubbles, and we're both very cautious when it  comes to spreading the virus.  And so it's been a process getting to the point where many couples start on a first date --- which is to say, holding hands ungloved, much less kissing.

I'm not kidding.  On our third date, we actually wore plastic gloves so that we could hold hands.  Don't judge us.

Anyway, after much semi-quarantining and waiting and taking precautions, we agreed that tonight would be THE NIGHT that she would finally come to my place and we would take off our masks and behave like a normal  couple.

Only we didn't.  She's not here right now, and she's not coming.

Because two days ago, I caught a cold.  At least, I'm pretty sure it's a cold.  It's a very, very mild sore throat.  And to be perfectly honest, I wanted to just ignore it and keep our date anyway.  But she's more responsible than I am, and so she postponed our date AND insisted that I get myself tested.

And so today, I got my first test for the #TrumpVirus.  It was unpleasant, but quick.  It was the kind where they stick a swab way, way, WAAAAYYY up your nose.  It makes me cringe just to think about it.

Anyway --- I've been planning this date for weeks, and it totally sucks that it got postponed due to what is almost certainly a mild head cold.  But as much as I hate it, I completely agree with her that it's the right thing to do.

Trust me --- if I can postpone this date, then people should be able to skip their traditional large Thanksgiving gathering.

And in other news --- I'm going to outsource a rant to Paul Campos of Lawyers, Guns & Money again.  You should read the whole thing, but here's a taste:

Look, I get that people aren’t robots. We’re all suffering from COVID fatigue. We don’t want to do this any more. But consider what we’re facing: Deaths caused by COVID-19, both directly and indirectly — lots of places are running out of ICU space already — are going to hit several thousand per day very soon. The overwhelming majority of those deaths would be preventable by taking what we now can be confident will be a very short-term moderate lockdown approach — a matter of behaving like we actually care about our own lives and those of our neighbors for perhaps 12 weeks!