COVID19 Update - Day 276

US Tests: 184,230,752*

US Cases: 15,592,946*

US Deaths: 287,058*

Worldwide Cases: 70,111,812*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,591,595*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The vaccines are coming!  The vaccines are coming!  So F. Perry Wilson wrote a cautionary article for Vox, listing 9 things that could go wrong with the new vaccines.  In summary:

1. Unexpected long-term side effects (probability: low)
2. There won’t be enough vaccine for everyone (probability: low)
3. Vaccination becomes politicized (probability: low)
4. There won’t be enough vaccine supplies (probability: medium)
5. People won’t get both doses (probability: medium)
6. Doctors will bend the truth to help their patients get a vaccine faster (probability: medium)
7. Vaccines will exacerbate inequality in the health care system (probability: high)
8. A false sense of security develops (probability: high)
9. Anti-vaxxers amplify and misrepresent side effects (probability: almost certain)

As you might expect, there are more details at the link.  But because it doesn't get enough visibility, I'll zoom in on point 7, exacerbating inequality in the health care system:

There are currently 80 million people in the US with no regular access to doctor’s care, many of whom have significant comorbidities that no one is documenting. These are predominantly people of color and of lower socioeconomic status. These are also the people who have suffered most during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In other words, they are the people who would most benefit from the vaccine. And they may be left behind.

To prevent this, we need targeted vaccination programs in low-income and underresourced communities. We also need to waive comorbidity restrictions among those without access to quality health care. California’s proposal to consider “historical injustice” to vaccine allocation is not far off the mark.

I also think Wilson is too optimistic in suggesting a 'low' probability that vaccination will become politicized.  Obviously, there is no reason why it SHOULD be politicized.  But at this point in our nation's history, we should be able to see it coming.

There's no good reason why people should be willing to take up arms against a mandate requiring people to wear masks in public, or why a president who held multiple superpspreader campaign events during a pandemic, and suggested that we fight the virus by injecting bleach into our lungs, should receive the second-most votes ever in a national election, but here we are.

If you'll forgive the expression, for a large segment of the population, vice-signaling trumps common sense.  The probability of vaccination becoming politicized --- like all other common-sense responses to the #TrumpVirus --- is 'moderate' at least.