COVID19 Update - Day 265

US Tests: 167,200,562*

US Cases: 13,337,969*

US Deaths: 259,075*

Worldwide Cases: 63,154,049*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,466,436*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

More good news on the vaccine front.  It appears that Moderna's vaccine is about 95% effective in preventing the #TrumpVirus --- and 100% effective in preventing severe infection:

Of the 196 Covid-19 cases in the trial, 185 were in the placebo group and only 11 in the vaccine group, Moderna reported.

Even more important, the vaccine — called mRNA-1273 — appears to protect against severe disease, not just asymptomatic or mild cases. Of the 30 severe Covid-19 cases among trial participants, all occurred in the placebo group. If the finding is real, it would likely mean averted deaths and hospitalizations when millions of people are immunized.

“You’ve got 100 percent protection against severe disease,” Paul Offit, an infectious disease and vaccine researcher at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told Vox. “That’s remarkable.”

“If these numbers are right, it’s more than we’d need for the vaccine to be a major control measure for this outbreak,” said Eric Rubin, an infectious disease specialist and the editor-in-chief of the New England Journal of Medicine.

Moderna’s CEO, Stéphane Bancel, said in the press release that the company plans to request an Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, which would allow the vaccine to be used in limited cases for people facing some of the highest risk of exposure to Covid-19, like health care workers. “We believe that our vaccine will provide a new and powerful tool that may change the course of this pandemic and help prevent severe disease, hospitalizations and death,” he added.

 

COVID19 Update - Day 264

US Tests: 165,829,155*

US Cases: 13,188,777*

US Deaths: 257,920*

Worldwide Cases: 62,670,153*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,458,360*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Nothing much, just every member of the White House #TrumpVirus task force warning that the situation is about to get much, much worse, thanks to the general refusal of people to behave responsibly over Thanksgiving.  A sample:

During an interview on CBS, Birx warned that the country is “entering this post-Thanksgiving surge with three, four and 10 times as much disease across the country” compared to the “second wave” heading into Memorial Day weekend.

Birx recalled that there were less than 25,000 COVID-19 cases a day before Memorial Day weekend.

“We saw what happened post-Memorial Day. Now we are deeply worried about what could happen post-Thanksgiving because the number of cases, 25,000 versus 180,000 a day, that’s where — that’s why we are deeply concerned,” Birx said, before adding that there was some improvement in the Northern Plains states prior to the holiday. “And now with Thanksgiving, we’re worried that all of that will be reversed.”

 

COVID19 Update - Day 263

US Tests: 164,804,756*

US Cases: 13,053,244*

US Deaths: 257,106*

Worldwide Cases: 62,094,127*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,449,709*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The virus strikes close to home again.  About six weeks ago, I posted an email from my son, who's in his sophomore year of college, about a number of #TrumpVirus cases on his campus.  Like most college campuses, the virus found many welcoming hosts on his.

Ultimately, one of his roommates tested positive and moved into quarantine.  Amazingly, my son and his other roommate both tested negative.  So although my ex-wife and I both encouraged them to shelter in place (and we drove supplies up to them), they never formally quarantined.

On Wednesday, he cam home for Thanksgiving.  And we decided to bite the bullet and allow him back into our bubble without any kind of quarantine and so forth.  This may have been a mistake.

Yesterday --- the Friday after Thanksgiving --- we discovered that his OTHER roommate has tested positive.  Obviously, this meant our son would need another test.  Since he is on his mothers' insurance --- and since his mother and I are divorced --- she arranged the test without consulting me.  And it turns out the test she arranged for him is one of those 'rapid' #TrumpVirus tests.  It came back negative.

The negative result is somewhat reassuring, but --- as I discovered with a bit of research --- probably meaningless.  The reason is that my son is showing no symptoms of any kind:

The three tests are authorized for the most straightforward cases: people with COVID-19 symptoms in the first week of symptoms. That’s how they were validated. They produced virtually no false positives that way and were 84% to 97% as sensitive as lab tests, meaning they caught that range of the samples deemed positive by PCR.

Yet HHS allowed their use for large-scale asymptomatic screening without fully exploring the consequences, Pettengill said.

A recent study, not yet peer reviewed, found the Quidel test detected over 80% of cases when used on symptomatic people and those with known exposures to the virus, but only 32% among people without symptoms, The New York Times reported.

So there's a good chance his test was a false negative.  On the other hand, since he's asymptomatic, it's not clear that a more accurate PCR test would have returned a positive result (if he's infected).  It's my understanding that it takes about 5 days from exposure for tests to detect infection, and since he's asymptomatic, we have no idea about exactly when he was exposed.

For the sake of everyone's safety, I'm don't plan to be around anyone other than immediate family (all of whom have been exposed to my son) until at least 10 days after I was first exposed to him.  I think it's almost certain that one of us (out of three) will show symptoms during that time if he was infected and passed it along to us.

So --- the pandemic keeps life interesting. 

 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 262

US Tests: 163,385,651*

US Cases: 12,901,146*

US Deaths: 255,904*

Worldwide Cases: 61,585,651*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,441,875*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

There's good news, and there's bad news.  First, the good news:

The CDC estimates there are 21 million healthcare personnel, 87 million essential workers, 100 million adults with high-risk medical conditions and 53 million others 65 and older. The federal government has said 40 million coronavirus vaccine doses could be available by the end of December.

Dr. Larry Corey of the University of Washington, who is heading up coronavirus vaccine clinical trials in the US, has said if both Pfizer and Moderna get vaccines authorized, they could supply 50 million more doses in January and 60 million more in February and March.

But here's the bad news (emphasis mine):

Those vaccines require two doses taken three to four weeks apart to be effective, so that would mean roughly enough vaccines to cover 75 million people by the end of March.

ACIP's priorities will help decide who gets access to those scarce vaccines first.

"The plan is to roll out doses of vaccines over the next few weeks to months in order to cover the 1a, 1b and 1c groups. There are not going to be sufficient vaccines for everybody in the first allotment," Romero said.

"It is important for the public to understand that we are dealing with select groups of individuals -- not the general public."

I completely understand the need to prioritize health-care workers and high-risk populations with vaccinations, and I also understand that it will take some time for vaccines to be produced and distributed.  However, I'm still a bit disappointed to see the expectation that ONLY about one-quarter of the U.S. population will be vaccinated by April 1.  I was hopeful that the pandemic would be largely finished by then.

*sigh* 

 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 261

US Tests: 161,682,011*

US Cases: 12,706,167*

US Deaths: 254,530*

Worldwide Cases: 60,856,294*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,429,689*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

They'd better pray.  In the first Supreme Court decision since Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed, the court struck down a public safety ordinance in the state of New York limiting the number of people who can attend a church, mosque or synagogue:

In all, the late-night ruling consisted of six different opinions.

Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote his own concurrence -- joined by no other justice -- to explain his vote.

He said that other businesses such as bicycle repair shops, did not have similar restrictions.

"So, at least according to the Governor, it may be unsafe to go to church, but it is always fine to pick up another bottle of wine" or "shop for a new bike," Gorsuch wrote.

I'm not sure exactly what Neil Gorsuch does when he picks up a bottle of wine or shops for a new bike, but at least in my experience, it DOESN'T involve spending an hour or more indoors with a large group of people, and breaking into song on occasion.

I'm not a religious person, but I honestly don't know why any place of worship would WANT to continue holding in-person services during a pandemic, anyway.

Future generations will look back on this time as the time of the great stupid.

COVID19 Update - Day 260

US Tests: 160,710,709*

US Cases: 12,581,085*

US Deaths: 253,211*

Worldwide Cases: 60,258,815*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,418,610*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

On a day when the U.S. recorded nearly 2,500 new #TrumpVirus deaths, let's try for hope instead of fear:

“There is real hope, tangible hope. So hang on. Don’t let yourself surrender to the fatigue,” Biden said in an address from Wilmington, Delaware, lauding the emergence of promising COVID-19 vaccines poised for distribution. He urged Americans to be vigilant in observing guidance issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to combat the spread of the coronavirus over the Thanksgiving holiday.

The message — mask-wearing and social-distancing, were not new — and yet President Trump who has bunkered strongly since his electoral defeat has remained largely silent in his leadership on curbing the virus even as coronavirus deaths have topped more than a quarter-million in the U.S.

“America is not going to lose this war. You will get your lives back. Life is going to return to normal,” Biden said.

The incoming President offered a thinly-veiled criticism of President Trump’s pandemic response, suggesting that none of the science-driven guidance that would be put forward in the coming months as he takes his place in the White House would take sides in a partisan fight. 

“None of these steps we’re asking people to take are political statements,” Biden said. “Every one of them is based in science.”

The comments which were consistent with remarks the President-elect made after he was declared the projected winner of the presidential election on Nov. 7, when he said that he would “marshal the forces of science” to battle the coronavirus pandemic. At that time he vowed to make a national pandemic response his top priority even before he is inaugurated as President.

The remarks on Wednesday were a sharp departure from President Donald Trump’s continuous efforts to undermine the wisdom of scientists and health experts within his own administration with regard to battling the coronavirus pandemic.

It's easy to look at Biden's speech, check the calendar, and conclude that anything he does will be too little, too late.  But the more optimistic view is that a president who takes the pandemic seriously is FAR better than one who suggested injecting disinfectant into the lungs.

COVID19 Update - Day 259

US Tests: 159,365,449*

US Cases: 12,397,144*

US Deaths: 250,925*

Worldwide Cases: 59,939,306*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,412,669*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

No additional news tonight.  Because reasons.

COVID19 Update - Day 258

US Tests: 157,846,226*

US Cases: 12,230,472*

US Deaths: 248,897*

Worldwide Cases: 59,124,046*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,395,519*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Today, let's focus on some genuinely good news:

AstraZeneca is the third major drug company to report late-stage data for a potential COVID-19 vaccine as the world waits for scientific breakthroughs that will end a pandemic that has pummeled the world economy and led to 1.4 million deaths. But unlike the others, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine doesn’t have to be stored at freezer temperatures, making it potentially easier to distribute, especially in developing countries.

“I think these are really exciting results,” Dr. Andrew Pollard, chief investigator for the trial, said at a news conference. “Because the vaccine can be stored at fridge temperatures, it can be distributed around the world using the normal immunization distribution system. And so our goal … to make sure that we have a vaccine that was accessible everywhere, I think we’ve actually managed to do that.”

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in one of the dosing regimens tested; it was less effective in another. Earlier this month, rival drugmakers Pfizer and Moderna reported preliminary results from late-stage trials showing their vaccines were almost 95% effective.

While the AstraZeneca vaccine can be stored at 2 degrees to 8 degrees Celsius (36 degrees to 46 degrees Fahrenheit), the Pfizer and Moderna products must be stored at freezer temperatures. In Pfizer’s case, it must be kept at the ultra-cold temperature of around minus-70 degrees Celsius (minus-94 Fahrenheit).

The AstraZeneca vaccine is also cheaper.

AstraZeneca, which has pledged it won’t make a profit on the vaccine during the pandemic, has reached agreements with governments and international health organizations that put its cost at about $2.50 a dose. Pfizer’s vaccine costs about $20, while Moderna’s is $15 to $25, based on agreements the companies have struck to supply their vaccines to the U.S. government.

All three vaccines must be approved by regulators before they can be widely distributed.

I must admit, I'm kind of rooting for the AstraZeneca vaccine, for no particularly good reason --- other than the fact that I work for one of the health care systems who partnered with AstraZeneca for its trial.  But the drastically lower price point and the fact that it requires only ordinary refrigeration, rather than the "ultra-cold temperature" of its competitors, makes it seem like the clear leader in my mind.

COVID19 Update - Day 257

US Tests: 156,339,040*

US Cases: 12,077,354*

US Deaths: 247,932*

Worldwide Cases: 58,563,451*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,386,465*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another grim milestone, as the U.S. recorded its 12 millionth case of the #TrumpVirus today.  Fortunately, I am not among them.  I received my test result just about 24 hours ago, and I tested negative.  Yay!

Nevertheless, this is another reminder that things are bad and getting worse.  If we arbitrarily choose March 11 as our starting point (the date I started blogging about the virus regularly), here is the number of days it took to reach 1 million additional cases:

• One million: 49 days
• Two million: 44 days
• Three million: 27 days
• Four million: 15 days
• Five million: 17 days
• Six million: 23 days
• Seven million: 25 days
• 8 million: 20 days
• 9 million: 16 days
• 10 million: 9 days
• 11 million: 6 days
• 12 million: 6 days

With Thanksgiving right around the corner, it's not unreasonable to expect that we might see ONE MILLION NEW CASES PER DAY in the U.S. before the end of the year.

So let's take a look at how treatments/vaccines are coming along:

The emergency approval comes as two possible Covid-19 vaccines have gotten a lot of attention recently. Pfizer, creator of one of the vaccines, said it recently wrapped up its clinical trial successfully, and submitted an application for emergency approval from the FDA on Friday, while another company, Moderna, said it would be applying soon. Health officials had hoped that antibody treatments like Regeneron’s would help address cases in the time before vaccines become widely available.

Regeneron’s antibody cocktail is just one of several experimental treatments for Covid-19. There’s also convalescent plasma, which is taken from people who were infected with the virus but later recovered

. . .

[T]he FDA isn’t completely sure Regeneron’s treatment works, but in its announcement, the FDA said it “has determined that it is reasonable to believe that casirivimab and imdevimab administered together may be effective in treating patients with mild or moderate COVID-19.” Ahead of submitting the treatment for its EUA, Regeneron said it planned to continue trials that included a variety of hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals.

This uncertainty has led some health experts to express concern about the fast-tracking process for approval of potential viral treatments. In September, the National Institutes of Health criticized the FDA’s emergency authorization for convalescent plasma, saying, “There are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of convalescent plasma.”

At the moment, peer reviewed research hasn’t yet been published on Regeneron’s antibody treatment, so experts can only go by data presented in company press releases purporting to show the treatment works. The FDA believes it has seen enough to allow its use, however, giving doctors one more option to consider as cases rise.

From where I sit, it looks like we need to get those vaccines to market as quickly as is safely possible. 

COVID19 Update - Day 256

US Tests: 154,937,873*

US Cases: 11,927,256*

US Deaths: 247,043*

Worldwide Cases: 57,985,648*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,378,567*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

We've beaten the 'Trump doesn't care whether you live or die' horse for a while, so I suppose it's time to go beat the 'we could be doing so much better with effective leadership' horse some more:

Researchers studying Covid-19 policy say Vermont’s successes are inextricably linked to its approach to helping at-risk groups avoid the virus. “Vermont’s prioritization of its vulnerable populations has helped both to protect those [people] from the worst outcomes we’ve seen in other settings but also contributed to the much lower transmission rates in the state,” said Anne Sosin, the program director of Dartmouth College’s Center for Global Health Equity.

“If we look globally,” Sosin continued, “the countries that have done better [with Covid-19] prioritized their vulnerable populations.”

Vermont’s health leaders recognized this very early in the pandemic. And instead of relying only on stay-at-home orders or curfews — which tend to benefit people who can work from home or fully isolate if they test positive — the government designed a response with the needs of high-risk groups in mind.

The package of measures now includes state-supported housing for the homeless, hazard pay, meal deliveries, and free, pop-up testing in at-risk communities. The state’s Republican governor, Phil Scott, is even proposing $1,000 stipends for people who’ve been asked to self-isolate.

Most states have “been using really blunt public health and policy measures to respond to the pandemic,” Sosin said. Vermont highlights a different way. When governments “tailor responses to the needs of our most vulnerable populations,” she added, “we can stop the virus and save lives.”

It's amazing how much better off EVERYONE is when the most vulnerable in our society are taken care of.  Of course, that requires empathy, something which is in sadly short supply these days. 

COVID19 Update - Day 255

US Tests: 153,332,392*

US Cases: 11,748,947*

US Deaths: 245,537*

Worldwide Cases: 57,517,850*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,371,589*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Personal news first tonight.

I'm in love!

And if you're asking yourself what that has to do with the #TrumpVirus, then clearly you haven't tried dating at any time in the past 8 months.

The problem, of course, is that she and I are both in our own bubbles, and we're both very cautious when it  comes to spreading the virus.  And so it's been a process getting to the point where many couples start on a first date --- which is to say, holding hands ungloved, much less kissing.

I'm not kidding.  On our third date, we actually wore plastic gloves so that we could hold hands.  Don't judge us.

Anyway, after much semi-quarantining and waiting and taking precautions, we agreed that tonight would be THE NIGHT that she would finally come to my place and we would take off our masks and behave like a normal  couple.

Only we didn't.  She's not here right now, and she's not coming.

Because two days ago, I caught a cold.  At least, I'm pretty sure it's a cold.  It's a very, very mild sore throat.  And to be perfectly honest, I wanted to just ignore it and keep our date anyway.  But she's more responsible than I am, and so she postponed our date AND insisted that I get myself tested.

And so today, I got my first test for the #TrumpVirus.  It was unpleasant, but quick.  It was the kind where they stick a swab way, way, WAAAAYYY up your nose.  It makes me cringe just to think about it.

Anyway --- I've been planning this date for weeks, and it totally sucks that it got postponed due to what is almost certainly a mild head cold.  But as much as I hate it, I completely agree with her that it's the right thing to do.

Trust me --- if I can postpone this date, then people should be able to skip their traditional large Thanksgiving gathering.

And in other news --- I'm going to outsource a rant to Paul Campos of Lawyers, Guns & Money again.  You should read the whole thing, but here's a taste:

Look, I get that people aren’t robots. We’re all suffering from COVID fatigue. We don’t want to do this any more. But consider what we’re facing: Deaths caused by COVID-19, both directly and indirectly — lots of places are running out of ICU space already — are going to hit several thousand per day very soon. The overwhelming majority of those deaths would be preventable by taking what we now can be confident will be a very short-term moderate lockdown approach — a matter of behaving like we actually care about our own lives and those of our neighbors for perhaps 12 weeks!

COVID19 Update - Day 254

US Tests: 151,750,069*

US Cases: 11,556,142*

US Deaths: 243,675*

Worldwide Cases: 56,817,667*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,358,489*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another day, another record number of #TrumpVirus cases:

Numbers are headed in the wrong direction across the country, according to a CNN analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

Only one US state, Hawaii, is showing a decrease in new cases greater than 10% compared to the previous week. Five others -- Idaho, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois and Arkansas -- are holding steady, while the remaining 44 states are showing increases in new cases greater than at least 10% compared to the week prior.

Nationwide, the seven-day average of new cases is at its highest ever: 161,165 cases a day. That's up 27% compared to last week.

An early cold snap in the middle of the country at the end of September helped drive the recent surge in cases as people moved indoors, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, said Thursday.

Birx asked Americans to limit gatherings, stay apart and wear masks -- including indoors, she said, because of the possibility of asymptomatic spread.

Sadly, yes, this means you SHOULDN'T have Thanksgiving dinner with someone outside your bubble.  Lives are literally at stake. 

COVID19 Update - Day 253

US Tests: 150,287,768*

US Cases: 11,373,310*

US Deaths: 241,704*

Worldwide Cases: 56,178,674*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,348,348*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

It's heartbreaking to think how many lives might have been saved if the Trump administration had said this clearly and repeatedly starting in March (instead of weaponizing hygiene, calling the virus a hoax, promoting quack cures like hydroxychloroquine or --- god help us --- injecting disinfectant, and holding daily superspreader rallies):

Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary of health who leads the government’s COVID testing efforts, sounded the alarm on Wednesday that the country is in an “absolutely dangerous situation” as COVID-19 cases continue surging ahead of the holiday season.

During an interview on MSNBC on Wednesday, Giroir said that both COVID-19 hospitalizations and fatalities being up by 25% week over week means that the country is “not going in the right direction.”

Giroir stressed that the country is at an “absolutely critical, dangerous point” as he urged the public to wear a mask to reduce the spread of COVID-19 because it’s “the only way we get out of this” until there’s a vaccine for the pandemic that has killed more than 249,000 Americans thus far.

“Right now, we are in an absolutely dangerous situation that we have to take with the utmost seriousness,” Giroir said. “This is not crying wolf. This is the worst rate of rise in cases that we’ve seen in the pandemic in the United States and right now there’s no sign of flattening.”

Giroir reiterated that the public needs to be “incredibly concerned.”

And of course, the #TrumpDeathCult are continuing to exacerbate the problem by stamping their tiny feet, throwing a temper tantrum, and refusing to let the grownups take charge of the situation:

President-elect Joe Biden rebuked President Trump on Wednesday for standing in the way of his formal transition, especially because the sitting president’s refusal to concede will put the distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine during the Biden administration “behind by weeks or months.”

During a roundtable with workers on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic on Wednesday, Biden particularly expressed his dismay over General Services Administration chief Emily Murphy’s refusal to sign an “ascertainment,” which would allow Biden’s transition team to contact federal agencies or access the millions of dollars set aside for it, despite his legitimate election victory and amid surging COVID-19 cases.

This behavior should guarantee that Trump gets what he wants, though.  He will forever stand out from all other American presidents --- for his corruption, his incompetence, and his malfeasance. 

COVID19 Update - Day 252

US Tests: 149,011,164*

US Cases: 11,202,899*

US Deaths: 239,784*

Worldwide Cases: 55,624,562*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,338,106*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sorry, no updates tonight.  Because reasons.

COVID19 Update - Day 251

US Tests: 147,761,664*

US Cases: 11,047,064*

US Deaths: 238,217*

Worldwide Cases: 54,826,773*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,323,093*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

It's not news that the Trump administration is intentionally hindering Joe Biden's transition team.  However, Joe Lockhart and Laurence Tribe made a point about this malfeasance which I hadn't considered.

Part of the Trump administration’s motive for delaying the “ascertainment” that triggers the transition to a Biden administration is to cripple its successor, but the other part is to delay discovery of its shocking ineptitude and inexplicable inactivity https://t.co/Z5wHCfaz3G

— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) November 16, 2020

 

COVID19 Update - Day 250

US Tests: 146,367,058*

US Cases: 10,891,210*

US Deaths: 237,536*

Worldwide Cases: 54,320,021*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,316,133*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Trump only cares about himself, part 237,536.  Add this to the pile of evidence that anyone who thinks that Trump loves the flag, or America, or is 'working for us' is either lying, stupid, or delusional:

Although Biden’s COVID-19 advisory board has contacted states and the medical community prior to the President-elect’s inauguration in January, the transition team cannot access data from the Trump administration regarding COVID-19, vaccine distribution plans as well as intelligence briefings until it gets the green light from General Services Administration chief Emily Murphy — a Trump appointee who has sole authority over whether Biden’s transition can officially move forward.

Murphy has yet to sign a letter of “ascertainment,” which would allow Biden’s transition team to contact federal agencies or access the millions of dollars set aside for it.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, stressed the importance of a smooth transition process in light of surging COVID-19 cases nationwide, during an interview on CNN Sunday. After citing his experience in serving six presidents for 36 years, Fauci described how a smooth transition is like “passing a baton in a race.”

Pressed on whether it’d a good idea for public health experts to be able to work with Biden’s transition team right now in terms of what is best for the public’s health, Fauci replied “of course.”

Along with former Obama administration DHS secretary Jeh Johnson and Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton rebuking the Trump administration’s refusal to assist President-elect Joe Biden’s formal transition process, Republican Govs. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) and Mike DeWine (R-OH) on Sunday also suggested that Trump reverse course by aiding the incoming Biden administration’s smooth transition.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince people that he doesn't exist.  The next greatest trick was to convince people that he wanted to make America great.

COVID19 Update - Day 249

US Tests: 145,197,630*

US Cases: 10,752,101*

US Deaths: 236,953*

Worldwide Cases: 53,788,566*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,308,725*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

No matter how scared you are about the current surge in #TrumpVirus cases, you probably aren't scared enough.  So instead of reading this post, you should go read Kevin Drum's instead.  A taste:

Between October 1 and October 23, the case rate went up by about half. Add three weeks to that, and between October 23 and November 14 the death rate went up by . . . about half. So, since the case rate has risen about 2.3x in the past three weeks up through today, we can probably expect the death rate to increase about 2.3x between now and the end of November. That’s very close to 3,000 deaths per day.

It might be less than that, since the case fatality rate has been slowly declining. On the other hand, it might be more than that since the current unsmoothed case rate is about 180,000 per day. If that’s a more accurate measure, we could end up well over 3,000 deaths per day.

Seriously, go read it.  It has charts and everything. 

COVID19 Update - Day 248

US Tests: 143,850,906*

US Cases: 10,588,169*

US Deaths: 235,629*

Worldwide Cases: 53,284,867*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,301,054*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Tonight I'm feeling lazy, and I don't want to take the time to research an interesting #TrumpVirus story.  But writing about outbreaks which were directly caused by Trump's irresponsibility is always low-hanging fruit:

This is not the first coronavirus outbreak among the Secret Service. When Trump first resumed his campaign rallies in June, dozens of Secret Service agents came down with Covid-19. That outbreak happened after Trump’s ill-fated indoor rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and following a trip Vice President Mike Pence took to campaign in Arizona.

And it’s not just the Secret Service experiencing an outbreak, either. After Trump, several of his top officials, and many others in contact with them tested positive for the coronavirus in October, it appears the entire White House is dealing with another coronavirus cluster.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows was the first high-profile staffer to test positive in the Trump administration’s second outbreak. Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs reported that Meadows tested positive on November 4 after attending an election night event at the White House alongside hundreds of people without masks.

That news would be worrying enough on its own. But as Jacobs reported, Meadows’s infection was not widely known until she broke the news — reportedly two days after he tested positive

Others in Trump’s inner circle who have tested positive include Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson and campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski. Carson was at the same large event on election night as Meadows, and he tested positive on Monday at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. He told the Post that afternoon that he was experiencing a “fever of 101 [degrees], chills, muscle cramps, respiratory issues, and fatigue.”

It's one thing if Trump and members of his cult insist on putting their own lives (and those of their families) at risk.  But this article also says that more than 130 secret service officers are currently in quarantine.  It's frankly criminal that Trump insists on putting these peoples' lives at risk.

And hypocritical as well.  Trump and his minions are supposedly concerned about the welfare of law enforcement, with their 'blue lives matter' attitude and fascist American flag knockoff.  But as usual, they only mean this when it's convenient for them to feel morally superior to others.

In reality, the #TrumpVirus has taken the lives of more law enforcement officers than all other factors combined.  But does that cause them to moderate their behavior even a little?  Of course not.  Doing whatever they damn well please is a high priority to these people, second only to singing the praises of their corrupt, impeached, and defeated master. 

COVID19 Update - Day 247

US Tests: 142,467,818*

US Cases: 10,417,836*

US Deaths: 234,328*

Worldwide Cases: 52,556,751*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,290,840*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Not to be a broken record --- but the U.S. keeps breaking #TrumpVirus records:

The current, national COVID-19 outbreak is far and away the worst the virus has ever been, and the federal government is doing less to combat it than it’s ever done.

The virus shattered records this week on hospitalizations and case growth, bending the curve of new cases in the U.S. towards a nearly vertical upward tragectory, showing rapid spread.

And with the death toll spiraling upwards as well, the country is in for a grim winter. Even now, some epidemiologists are, unwillingly, beginning to speak the language of herd immunity and the associated death it takes to get there.

The article goes on to list 'five points on how to make sense of the current outbreak:

• The Lack Of Summer Preparations Makes This Fall COVID Outbreak Far Worse
• And If The Feds Stay Absent, State And Local Governments Won’t Be Able To Pick Up The Slack
• No Money For State And Local Gov Will Hinder Their Ability To Fight COVID, And Could Force Further Budget Cuts Down The Line
• In Some States, Cases Have Outpaced Testing — We Won’t Know The True Scale Of This
• The De-Facto Short-Term Strategy Is Herd Immunity

Read the whole thing, as they say.

COVID19 Update - Day 246

US Tests: 141,305,122*

US Cases: 10,267,081*

US Deaths: 233,080*

Worldwide Cases: 52,041,441*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,282,046*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Trump's incompetence and malfeasance have contributed greatly to the spread of the #TrumpVirus.  And now that there appears to be a promising vaccine, his incompetence and malfeasance is endangering its effectiveness.

Pfizer announced Monday that its vaccine demonstrated more than 90% effectiveness and no serious bad reactions in early trial results — an impressive outcome that will pave the way for the company to seek an emergency authorization once it collects more safety data for another week or two. But establishing that the vaccine is safe and effective is just the first step.

The Pfizer vaccine is unusually difficult to ship and store: It is administered in two doses given 28 days apart, has to be stored at temperatures of about minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit and will be delivered in dry ice-packed boxes holding 1,000 to 5,000 doses. These cartons can stay cold enough to keep the doses viable for up to 10 days, according to details provided by the company. The ice can be replenished up to three times. Once opened, the packages can keep the vaccine for five days but can’t be opened more than twice a day. The vaccine can also survive in a refrigerator for five days but can’t be refrozen if unused.

Health officials haven’t figured out how to get the ultracold doses to critical populations living far from cities, according to a ProPublica review of distribution plans obtained through open records laws in every state. Needing to use 1,000 doses within a few days may be fine for large hospital systems or mass vaccination centers. But it could rule out sending the vaccine to providers who don’t treat that many people, even doctors’ offices in cities. It’s especially challenging in smaller towns, rural areas and Native communities on reservations that are likely to struggle to administer that many doses quickly or to maintain them at ultracold temperatures.

The government’s vaccine program, Operation Warp Speed, has projected optimism about its readiness to distribute the vaccine. On Monday, Gen. Gustave Perna told NPR, “I think we’re in a good place,” saying that “with the right planning, we can execute it with zero loss of vaccine.” But the federal program is only going to be responsible for delivering vaccines to the states, which must then figure out on their own how to get the shots to the people who need them most. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked each state to turn in distribution plans on Nov. 2, imagining a scenario in which a vaccine with Pfizer’s specifications came first.

To state the obvious, this is why it's important to have a competent president in the White House, one who's more interested in the public health and keeping Americans alive than in massaging his ego with super-spreader rallies and playing golf.

COVID19 Update - Day 245

US Tests: 140,171,021*

US Cases: 10,122,811*

US Deaths: 231,659*

Worldwide Cases: 51,395,233*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,270,706*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sorry, it's late.  No additional content tonight.

COVID19 Update - Day 244

US Tests: 139,010,919*

US Cases: 9,991,822*

US Deaths: 230,312*

Worldwide Cases: 50,812,345*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,262,372*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

For the first time in months, some good news.  In case you've been living in a cave for the last 12 hours, you should know that Pfizer appears to have developed a viable vaccine for the #TrumpVirus:

The company said that the analysis found that the vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in preventing the disease among trial volunteers who had no evidence of prior coronavirus infection. If the results hold up, that level of protection would put it on par with highly effective childhood vaccines for diseases such as measles. No serious safety concerns have been observed, the company said.

Pfizer plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization of the two-dose vaccine later this month, after it has collected the recommended two months of safety data. By the end of the year it will have manufactured enough doses to immunize 15 million to 20 million people, company executives have said.

But, as always, make sure to read the fine print:

“We need to see the actual data, and we’re going to need longer-term results,” said Jesse Goodman, a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at Georgetown University. Still, he said, “it’s a testament to hard work and science that we’re getting results that are so good and so fast.”

Other scientists were stunned by the data so far.

“This is really a spectacular number,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University. “I wasn’t expecting it to be this high. I was preparing myself for something like 55 percent.”

If the final vaccine ends up with that level of efficacy, it “would be higher than your regular flu vaccine, and this vaccine could have a serious impact on bending the curve of this outbreak,” said Dr. Saad B. Omer, the director of the Yale Institute for Global Health.

Dr. Jansen said that because the trial is continuing, an independent board reviewing the data has not told her or other company executives other details, such as how many of the people developed mild versus more severe forms of Covid-19 — crucial information that the F.D.A. has said it will need to evaluate any coronavirus vaccine. The agency has also asked for other detailed manufacturing and safety data that could take weeks to review.

It's not unheard of for studies such as these to promise more than they can deliver.  Nevertheless, there is reason to be hopeful that we may finally be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 243

US Tests: 136,654,665*

US Cases: 9,761,481*

US Deaths: 229,238*

Worldwide Cases: 50,313,694*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,255,185*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sorry, but for the next 8 weeks, I'm probably going to be a bit of a broken record about this:

In one respect, President-elect Joe Biden faces a grim Jan. 20: an additional hundred thousand could be dead of COVID-19 between now and then, with case rates and hospitalizations skyrocketing around the country as the President copes with his loss by playing golf.

And to address the problem, the President-elect faces a bleak political landscape. Absent a double Democratic victory in Georgia Senate runoffs in January, Biden could face a serious roadblock — in the form of Mitch McConnell — constraining parts of his COVID-19 agenda.

Biden’s COVID-19 response plan focuses on seven areas, which would address portions of the Trump administration’s response to the virus that have been alternately disastrous or uncoordinated.

Portions of the Biden plan offer new approaches to combatting the virus that the Trump administration eschewed, including extensive use of the Defense Production Act to alleviate PPE shortages and huge investments in contact tracing and local public health services.

But other portions of it, like calls to heed scientific advice and leave career professionals at the FDA and CDC unhindered, may warm the hearts of the scientific and medical communities but leave others somewhat skeptical and worried about the limits of what the President-elect can accomplish.

Tell your friends, tell your family (especially if they live in Georgia): We REALLY need to elect Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff to the Senate! 

COVID19 Update - Day 242

US Tests: 136,620,652*

US Cases: 9,761,481*

US Deaths: 229,238*

Worldwide Cases: 49,759,719*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,249,515*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Of course, you're all reading Lawyers, Guns and Money on a regular basis, right?  If not, you should.  It has multiple authors providing content, and so there's a lot more to read there.  But really the chief selling point for it, in my book, is that none of the contributors is me.

Take, for example, their latest takedown on the Super-Spreader Administration.

COVID19 Update - Day 241

US Tests: 135,585,452*

US Cases: 9,666,700*

US Deaths: 228,141*

Worldwide Cases: 49,228,536*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,241,366*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

How will Biden fight the #TrumpVirus if Republicans hold the Senate?  That's the question Vox asks (because there's still precious little reporting on the pandemic, despite the fact that it really deserves to be the top story in the news right now):

There are some big things that Biden and his administration will still be able to do. He could empower scientists to lead the federal response to Covid-19 — particularly the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has been stifled and politicized under Trump — to standardize and improve guidance given to Americans, states, schools, businesses, and others about the virus. The Biden administration could coordinate nationwide efforts for testing, tracing, and protective equipment for health care workers. It could take steps to allow more testing — which Trump has actively resisted — by breaking down regulatory barriers. It could improve data tracking and reporting for Covid-19.

But implementing a robust Covid-19 response will likely be much harder if Republicans keep the Senate and choose to obstruct any legislation that could give Biden a political win. For one, the Senate will have to approve almost anything that requires more money for anti-coronavirus efforts.

That could limit a stimulus package, which could make social distancing more tolerable and more possible for many Americans. It could also rule out legislation pushing states to adopt mask mandates and enforce them with federal funds. And it could prevent expansions of access to health care more broadly, placing the costs of coronavirus-related treatment on Americans.

Republicans could limit a stimulus package, you say?  What gives you that kind of crazy idea?

McConnell dug in Friday on his call for a narrow relief bill, pointing to a new jobs report that showed the unemployment rate had fallen to 6.9 percent in October, down from nearly 15 percent in April. McConnell said this is evidence that only limited additional federal intervention is needed. McConnell looks likely to maintain his role as majority leader in the new Congress after Democrats failed to take control of the Senate, although that outcome will not be certain until two runoffs in Georgia in early January. Pelosi will continue as speaker but preside over a smaller majority based on Tuesday’s election results.

“Our economy is really moving to get back on its feet. That I think clearly ought to affect what size of any rescue package we additionally do,” McConnell said at a news conference in Kentucky. “I do think we need another one, but I think it reinforces the argument that I’ve been making for the last few months that something smaller — rather than throwing another $3 trillion at this issue — is more appropriate, with it highly targeted towards things that are directly related to the coronavirus, which we all know is not going away until we get a vaccine.”

I can't think of a better reason to support Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in the Georgia runoff elections. 

COVID19 Update - Day 240

US Tests: 134,391,770*

US Cases: 9,541,148*

US Deaths: 226,955*

Worldwide Cases: 48,580,403*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,231,558*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

While most everyone's attention is focused on the foregone conclusion of Biden ultimately securing an electoral college win over Trump, very little attention has been paid to the fact that, for the second day in a row, the U.S. set a record for number of new #TrumpVirus cases, ringing in today with a staggering 116,155.

As we enter a powerful 'third wave' of the pandemic, and with a TOTAL lack of national leadership (if you thought Trump was phoning it in before, he should be COMPLETELY useless as a lame duck), it's not inconceivable that we might see that number swell to 200,000 new cases a day (or more) by January 5, when the state of Georgia will hold not one, but two runoff elections for their two Senate seats.  Making things all the more interesting is the fact that Democrats probably need to win both of them in order to take control of the Senate, and in so doing, have any real chance of enacting President Biden's agenda.

So I have a modest proposal.  The Democratic candidates in these runoff elections --- Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock --- and the national Democratic party, need to run ads for the next 9 weeks which say the following:

Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell adjourned the Senate a week before the election without passing emergency stimulus legislation.  Since then, thousands of Americans have lost their jobs, and lines at food shelves keep growing --- even as over 100,000 more Americans catch COVID every day.

Mitch McConnell is playing politics with American lives, but you can stop him.  Send Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock to the Senate, to put a new leader in charge of the Senate, so that America can get back to the work of helping Americans.

Or something like that.

It would appear that voters in Montana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine and North Carolina all think it's just fine that McConnell didn't even try to pass a stimulus bill before the election.  But it seems to me that with the crisis poised to reach frightening proportions, this message might resonate with a divided Georgia electorate. 

 

COVID19 Update - Day 239

US Tests: 133,120,022*

US Cases: 9,424,893*

US Deaths: 225,831*

Worldwide Cases: 48,005,784*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,224,111*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Today marks yet another grim milestone for America.  For the first time during this pandemic, the total number of new #TrumpVirus cases jumped by more than 100,000 in a single day.

Yesterday, the people of America considered the man whose incompetence, neglect and malfeasance during the worst pandemic in a century allowed us to achieve this milestone, and decided to reward him with the second-largest number of votes any candidate for president has ever received.

The priorities of some people in this country --- it will be close to 70 million by the time the dust settles --- are truly fucked up.

COVID19 Update - Day 238

US Tests: 132,153,171*

US Cases: 9,321,806*

US Deaths: 224,265*

Worldwide Cases: 47,404,173*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,213,693*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Believe it or not, it's 10:44 PM Central Standard Time, and I have successfully managed to hide from any and all election returns.

I aim to make it at least another 17 hours.  Let's see how well I do.

COVID19 Update - Day 237

US Tests: 131,212,831*

US Cases: 9,235,299*

US Deaths: 223,186*

Worldwide Cases: 46,857,505*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,204,274*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Not surprisingly, all the news tonight is about the election.  So this will be a short update.

And there will be a similarly short update tomorrow, because searching for good stories about the #TrumpVirus requires reading the news, and I'm going to attempt to maintain a news blackout until at least Wednesday night.

(And yes, I know I didn't bother to even update the numbers on Sunday.  What can I say?  On rare occasions, I get busy).

However, if you still demand updates on how horrifying the #TrumpVirus is, you can always get your fill of gloom and doom at

http://covidexitstrategy.org

COVID19 Update - Day 236

US Tests: 130,003,697*

US Cases: 9,151,390*

US Deaths: 222,704*

Worldwide Cases: 46,419,939*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,199,500*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Sigh.  The idiots in the #TrumpDeathCult are not only cheering on Trump and his irresponsible behavior, they are using the fact that Biden will actually try to suppress the virus as a reason to vote against him.

President Donald Trump’s campaign rallies led to more than 30,000 coronavirus cases, according to a new paper posted by researchers at Stanford.

Researchers looked at 18 Trump rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 22 and analyzed Covid-19 data the weeks following each event. They compared the counties where the events were held to other counties that had a similar trajectory of confirmed Covid-19 cases prior to the rally date. Out of the 18 rallies analyzed, only three were indoors, according to the research.

The researchers found that the rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19. They also concluded that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths, though not necessarily among attendees.

The researchers said the findings support the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of Covid-19 transmission at large group gatherings, “particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low.”

. . .

A spokesperson for Joe Biden’s campaign issued a statement after the paper posted, saying, Trump is “costing hundreds of lives and sparking thousands of cases with super spreader rallies that only serve his own ego.”

“The worst part is that this doesn’t even capture Trump’s many superspreader events on White House grounds or the last five weeks of events across the country. How many more lives have been upended in that time? How many more empty seats are there at kitchen tables across America because of Donald Trump’s ego?” spokesperson Andrew Bates said.

Truly, COVID-19 has had no greater friend in the world than Donald Trump.  That's why it's appropriate to refer to it as the #TrumpVirus.