COVID19 Update - Day 205

US Tests: 100,960,016*

US Cases: 7,244,316*

US Deaths: 199,776*

Worldwide Cases: 34,200,662*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,021,709*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

The pandemic isn't all Trump's fault, but he sure deserves the lion's share of the blame.  And that's not just my opinion:

Of the flood of misinformation, conspiracy theories and falsehoods seeding the internet on the coronavirus, one common thread stands out: President Trump.

That is the conclusion of researchers at Cornell University who analyzed 38 million articles about the pandemic in English-language media around the world. Mentions of Mr. Trump made up nearly 38 percent of the overall “misinformation conversation,” making the president the largest driver of the “infodemic” — falsehoods involving the pandemic.

The study, to be released Thursday, is the first comprehensive examination of coronavirus misinformation in traditional and online media.

“The biggest surprise was that the president of the United States was the single largest driver of misinformation around Covid,” said Sarah Evanega, the director of the Cornell Alliance for Science and the study’s lead author. “That’s concerning in that there are real-world dire health implications.”

And for some reason, there's a cliche running around in my head about chickens and where they like to roost:

POTUS and FLOTUS are both in quarantine. pic.twitter.com/F9ycE0jf8m

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) October 2, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 204

US Tests: 100,150,948*

US Cases: 7,198,589*

US Deaths: 198,929*

Worldwide Cases: 33,880,896*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,012,964*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

As expected, everyone is talking about the debate.  However, in my humble opinion, this is the only takeaway that matters (yes, I'm quoting my own tweet.  It's my blog; I can do what I want):

With 'stand back and stand by', Trump made the choice in this election agonizingly clear.

Either you're on the side of mob rule by white supremacist vigilantes.

Or you're on the side of democracy.

Vote accordingly.

— David Bailey (@drgdave) September 30, 2020

However, since this post is supposed to be about #COVID19, I guess I should say something about that.  So in addition to my own corrections of Trump's #COVID19-related lies that I made last night, here are some more that I missed:

That’s why many experts believe the vaccination process could take well into 2021 — and potentially 2022 or 2023. That means the Covid-19 pandemic could be with us for up to years, even after if we get a vaccine, and could remain a significant problem until the next round of elections.

Covid-19 “will continue to come up as an issue in the next midterms,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, previously told me. “It’s not going away.”

It would be one thing if Trump had done anything to assure the American public that he has the pandemic under control. Maybe that would have earned him some faith in how he and his administration will roll out a vaccine.

But Trump has done the opposite, repeatedly blundering his response to the coronavirus: He’s deliberately downplayed the pandemic, demanded states reopen too quickly, punted problems with testing and tracing down to local and state governments with more limited resources than the federal government, mocked masks, and tried to politicize public health institutions instead of letting science lead the response.

As a result, America has more than 200,000 deaths from Covid-19 — by far the highest recorded death toll in the world. When controlling for population, the US hasn’t had the highest death rate for Covid-19, but it’s among the top 20 percent of developed nations, and has seven times the death rate of the median developed country. If the US had the same Covid-19 death rate as, say, Canada, more than 120,000 more Americans would likely be alive today.

COVID19 Update - Day 203

US Tests: 99,435,766*

US Cases: 7,154,198*

US Deaths: 197,868*

Worldwide Cases: 33,560,877*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,006,564*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

As you may know, there was a debate tonight.  Many things were said, and on occasion, the audience was actually able to hear some of them.  Given that he has no record to run on, Trump did what he always does: lie.

Specifically, as regards the coronavirus, Trump repeated his lie that shutting down travel from China saved 2 million American lives.  I'm not sure which orifice he pulled this number from, but it's clearly wrong.  We know this mainly because he didn't really shut down travel from China, as much as he modestly curtailed it.

In any case, Trump's response to the pandemic has been nothing short of a disaster, as one can easily see (and as Biden noted in the debate) by the fact that the U.S. has only about 4% of the world's population, but nearly 20% of the world's coronavirus deaths (19.66%, to be scrupulously fair).

For those who prefer a visual representation of Trump's failure, here's the latest version of how the U.S. compares to the rest of the world in coronavirus deaths per capita:

In case you're wondering, the only other countries doing about as badly as the U.S. are Mexico and Brazil.  As you can see, practically every other country on the planet has a lower mortality rate.

And if you're the kind of person who likes to pretend the rest of the world doesn't exist, the coronvirus is now the third leading cause of death in the U.S. in 2020, just behind heart disease and cancer.

(Parenthetically --- if you learned you could drastically reduce the number of cancer deaths just by wearing a mask in public --- you'd do it, right?)

Trump's other big lie about the coronavirus tonight is that he claimed he was being sarcastic when he suggested that injecting disinfectant might be a viable treatment.

Judge for yourself to see whether he's being sarcastic:

COVID19 Update - Day 202

US Tests: 98,691,290*

US Cases: 7,117,251*

US Deaths: 197,129*

Worldwide Cases: 22,273,270*

Worldwide Deaths: 1,000,555*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Another sad milestone.  One million deaths.  And while this milestone is not America's shame exclusively, we did contribute our fair share of deaths (and then some).  And sadly, we all know WHY America has paid a higher price than most any other country.

Because of crap like this:

Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Robert Redfield was overheard on an airplane candidly expressing his real feelings on Friday, revealing to all his dim view of President Trump’s new favorite COVID-19 adviser, NBC reported.

“Everything he says is false,” Redfield said of Dr. Scott Atlas, a neurologist who hasn’t practiced medicine since 2012.

Before joining the White House’s coronavirus task force in August 2020, Atlas had not spent time on epidemiology but rather on advocacy against “socialized medicine.”

An NBC News reporter overheard Redfield discussing Atlas while on a flight from Atlanta to Washington D.C. After the flight landed, Redfield confirmed to NBC that he was discussing Atlas.

Atlas has faced widespread criticism for advocating a contrarian approach to managing the virus while lacking epidemiological expertise, recommending, for example, that all schools be reopened.

Faculty members at Stanford University Medical School sent an open letter on September 10 accusing Atlas of peddling “falsehoods,” to which he responded with a threat of a defamation lawsuit sent by Trump attorney Marc Kasowitz.

Dr. Deborah Birx, another prominent task force member who has managed to stay in the President’s good graces, is reportedly “distressed” over how enamored Trump has become with Atlas.

And still more than 40% of Americans approve of this stain.  And shrug off another 1,000 deaths or so as just another day in America. 

COVID19 Update - Day 201

US Tests: 97,728,551*

US Cases: 7,080,459*

US Deaths: 196,869*

Worldwide Cases: 32,969,955*

Worldwide Deaths: 996,096*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

Herd Immunity.  Many people don't understand, and some exceptionally ignorant people can't even pronounce it.  Unfortunately, this is one 'strategy' some in the White House prefer for 'combatting' the coronavirus --- probably because it's a scientific-sounding excuse to do nothing.

However, since there's precious little reporting happening on the pandemic these days, I thought I would call your attention to an article Vox ran recently about herd immunity.

Hypothetically, yes, there are situations under which herd immunity to Covid-19 could be achieved. Manaus, Brazil, an Amazonian city of around 2 million people, experienced one of the most severe Covid-19 outbreaks in the world. At the peak in the spring and early summer, the city’s hospitals were completely full, the New York Times reported.

During this period, there were four times as many deaths as normal for that point in the year. But then, over the summer, the outbreak sharply died down. Researchers now estimate between 44 percent and 66 percent of the city’s population was infected with the virus, which means it’s possible herd immunity has been achieved there. (This research has yet to be peer-reviewed.)

But that’s much higher than 22 percent, and the cost of this herd immunity was immense: Between 1 in 500 and 1 in 800 residents died there, the researchers estimate.

Many more were hospitalized, and still more may suffer long-term consequences of the infection. Similarly, the oft-cited example of Sweden, which has pursued a laxer social distancing strategy than its European peers (partially with the goal of building up herd immunity in younger people, while protecting older residents and trying to keep hospitals from exceeding capacity), has paid a price, too: a much higher death rate than fellow Scandinavian countries.

We’re several months into this pandemic, and herd immunity is still widely misunderstood and being continually misused for partisan goals of discrediting science and scientists. The biggest misconception is that achieving herd immunity through natural infection is a reasonable pandemic response strategy. It’s not.

Interested readers can go to the article to read all the details.  I just want to focus on the line highlighted in bold above.  Based on the experience in Manaus, we think that herd immunity MAY possibly be achieved at a cost of 1 in 500 to 1 in 800 people dying.  Conservatively estimating the current U.S. population at 320 million, that would mean we would need to accept --- at a minimum --- 400,000 deaths.

Or in other words, if we just give up and do nothing, we MIGHT reach herd immunity after we double the current number of deaths.

Or we may not.

It seems it would be so much easier just to wear a &*%#@!! mask.

COVID19 Update - Day 200

US Tests: 97,027,653*

US Cases: 7,045,170*

US Deaths: 196,562*

Worldwide Cases: 32,747,374*

Worldwide Deaths: 992,984*

* - Numbers are a lower bound.  True numbers are being suppressed by the Trump administration

I've been writing about #COVID19 for 200 days now.  Back when I started, I thought --- naively, I now realize --- that these daily updates would become irrelevant sometime around the start of August.  What is positively stunning is that, as far as the news media is concerned, the coronavirus IS irrelevant.

Stop and think for minute.  In 200 days, nearly 200,000 people have died in America (over 200,000, if you use the numbers from Johns Hopkins).  That's an average of 1,000 people a day, every day, for more than half a year.  It is projected to be the third leading cause of death in America in 2020.  There's no end in sight, and people who actually know about such things are predicting it will only get worse through the winter.

And yes, there's an election in just over 5 weeks.  But the devastation caused by the virus, and Trump's heinous malfeasance, should play a major role in election coverage.  Less than 3 weeks ago, Bob Woodward dropped a bombshell when he released recordings of Trump acknowledging the dangers of the virus back in February, even though he has spent the past 7 months comparing it to the common flu, calling it a hoax, refusing to wear a mask and so on.

In a functioning democracy, Trump wouldn't even be president any more.  But not only is he still in office, and not only has the media dropped Woodward's bombshell --- they've dropped the coronavirus altogether.

(So a bit of inside baseball on how I make my sausage.  Typically, I will run across a story during the day which I think will be good to write about.  On the rare days when that doesn't happen, I go check my trusted news sources --- first Talking Points Memo, then Vox, and then CNN as a last resort).

Here is a screen shot of the CNN home page just a few minutes ago:

It is utterly flabbergasting.

Take Back the Senate! (Update!)

This is an update to a post I published two weeks ago.  Things are going to start moving quickly now, and unfortunately, we have already had one major incident occur to shake up not just one Senate race, but all of them --- the passing of national icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

It is unfortunate that we must think of politics at a time like this, but there's no denying that Justice Ginsburg died in the heat of the campaign season, and it has already had a major impact.  While Republicans believe it will motivate their voters to turn out --- and it probably will --- evidence from the past week indicates that it has motivated Democrats even more.  And that has translated into record fundraising for Democratic Senate candidates.

As for how this event has affected individual races, for the most part it is too soon to tell.  Not much polling of individual races has been released in the past week.  Nevertheless, this is how things look to my untrained eye.

Once again, if you just want to donate some money and let other people figure out the best way to spend it, ActBlue is happy to help.

• Top-tier pickups: AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, KS, SC, MT, AK, GA
• Stretch goals: TX, MS, KY, AL
• Playing defense: MI, MN, NM
• Long shots: TN, WV, OK, ID, WY, SD

A note about the special election in Georgia.  In my previous post, I advised against putting any money into this race, because so many candidates are running that it is certain to go to a runoff on January 5.  At the time, my thinking was that one Republican and one Democrat would make it through, and so that race would get it's own focus after November.

However, there now seems to be some concern that Democrats might get shut out of the January runoff entirely unless the second Democrat in the race, Matt Lieberman, drops out.  So it might be a good idea to support the leading Democrat, Raphael Warnock, who has endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams and Barack Obama.

Top-tier Pickups

The good news is, I have added South Carolina and Alaska to the list of top-tier pickups, which means if November turns out to be a wave election --- and the fundraising suggests that it will --- Democrats stand a good chance of flipping ALL TEN of these seats.

The bad news is, Jon Ossoff has slipped a bit in the polling in Georgia.  While most polls show Ossoff and Perdue basically tied, perhaps with a slight edge to Perdue, a string of Monmouth University polls from September 23 all show Perdue ahead by 5 points or more.  It's just one polling outfit, and there's still plenty of time before the election --- but I did move this race to the bottom of this tier.

If you give to no other Democratic candidates for Senate this year, make sure you give to these ten.

State	Candidates	Notes
Arizona	Democrat: Mark Kelly	McSally recently asked her constituents to "fast a meal" so they could contribute to her campaign.
	*Republican: Martha McSally
Colorado	Democrat: John Hickenlooper	Hickenlooper is a popular former Governor, while Gardner is a spineless Trump yes-man.
	*Republican: Cory Gardner
North Carolina	Democrat: Cal Cunningham	Tillis promised to support the "well-qualified and conservative jurist president Trump will nominate" the day after RBG died --- and a full week before even knowing who the nominee was.
	*Republican: Thom Tillis
Maine	Democrat: Sara Gideon	Collins famously said that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment, before voting to acquit him.  Whether she was stupid enough to believe it, or dishonest enough to hope others would, she needs to go.
	*Republican: Susan Collins
Iowa	Democrat: Theresa Greenfield	While not quite as bad as Collins, Ernst also suggested that impeachment (and acquittal) would rein in Trump's lawbreaking.
	*Republican: Joni Ernst
Kansas	Democrat: Barbara Bollier	Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years --- but they did just elect a Democrat Governor in 2018.  And Marshall is a physician who claims to take hydroxychloroquine twice a week.
	*(O) Republican: Roger Marshall
South Carolina	Democrat: Jaime Harrison	Graham is possibly the most extreme example of a Republican flip-flopping from Trump critic to Trump lapdog. Graham recently went on Sean Hannity's show and whined that he's "getting killed" by Harrison's fundraising.  Sweep the leg!
	*Republican: Lindsey Graham
Montana	Democrat: Steve Bullock	Bullock is a popular governor, and Montana has elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, to the Senate three times.
	*Republican: Steve Daines
Alaska	Democrat: Al Gross	Although he ran in an won the Democratic primary, Gross is an independent.  He is also a doctor, which plays to his advantage during Trump's mishandling of the pandemic.
	*Republican: Dan Sullivan
Georgia	Democrat: Jon Ossoff	In 2017, with Bernie Sanders' endorsement, Ossoff came within 2 points of scoring a special-election upset in a traditionally heavily-Republican congressional district.
	*Republican: David Perdue

Stretch Goals

The Democrat (one of them an incumbent) is a clear underdog in each of these races.  However, surprises do happen in political races, and 2020 could turn out to be a wave year.  In any case, it's worth a few bucks to make sure the Democrat in each of these races remains competitive.

State	Candidates	Notes
Texas	Democrat: MJ Hegar	Hegar is a decorated Air Force veteran, and she's closing the gap with an awful lot of voters still undecided. There may be some movement toward Hegar.  A poll yesterday shows Hegar trailing Cornyn by only 2 points --- 38-40 --- with a whopping 22% of voters still undecided. In TEXAS!
	*Republican: John Cornyn
Mississippi	Democrat: Mike Espy	Yes, it's Mississippi, and yes, Hyde-Smith beat Espy by 7 points in 2018. But Espy is building a historic campaign that deserves support, and Hyde-Smith is the most racist member of the Senate. There is limited polling in this race, but it is fascinating.  Back in March, a Tyson Group poll showed Hyde-Smith with a 26-point lead.  Another Tyson Group poll at the end of August shows Hyde-Smith's lead down to a single point.
	*Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Kentucky	Democrat: Amy McGrath	McConnell is the Senate majority leader, so Republicans will do all they can to protect him. But 50% of Kentuckians have an unfavorable view of McConnell, and McGrath is a combat veteran and a prodigious fundraiser, and she's polling within single-digits of McConnell. There's little doubt that McGrath has received a disproportionate share of the dollars donated to Democratic challengers in the past week.
	*Republican: Mitch McConnell
Alabama	*Democrat: Doug Jones	As a Democrat in Alabama, Jones is rightly considered this cycle's most vulnerable incumbent.  But he deserves our support; he voted to convict Trump on both articles of impeachment.  Meanwhile, former Auburn football coach Tuberville is an empty suit and Trump clone, who is likely guilty of hedge-fund fraud. A poll published on September 22 shows Tuberville with an 18-point lead.
	Republican: Tommy Tuberville

Playing Defense

This election isn't just about flipping Republican seats, of course.  Democrats also need to hold on to the seats they have.  And while it's PROBABLY true that only one Democratic incumbent is really at risk (Doug Jones of Alabama --- see above), it's also a good idea to spend some resources making sure we keep the seats we've got.

State	Candidates	Notes
Michigan	*Democrat: Gary Peters	Peters has been rated as the Senate's fourth-most effective Democratic Senator, and the third-most bipartisan, but he only holds a slim lead over James, a Black veteran who is walking a tightrope between bear-hugging Trump and claiming to be independent.  Support for Peters will also likely help Biden in a key swing state.
	Republican: John James
Minnesota	*Democrat: Tina Smith	Lewis is a former talk-radio host, and has the agenda you would expect from one.  Think Rush Limbaugh.  In 2018 he ran as an 'independent Republican' and lost his seat in Congress.  Apparently he's now decided his best bet is to bear-hug Trump.  As with Peters, support for Tina Smith will also help Biden in a state where the polls are close. Two recent polls show Smith with a double-digit lead.  This seat is probably safe.
	Republican: Jason Lewis
New Mexico	*(O)Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan	Lujan has consistently held a double-digit polling lead in a state Biden is likely to win easily, and Ronchetti is a political novice.  This race isn't likely to be close.
	Republican: Mark Ronchetti

Long Shots

I'm not going to lie: The chances are probably 95% or more that the Republicans hold all 6 of these Senate seats.  The main reason it's worth donating to the Democrats on this list is that if we starve Democrats forever in places like Tennessee, West Virginia and Idaho, then Democrats will NEVER be competitive in those states.

This is really more about the long game.  If Wyoming voters hear a solid message from a strong Democratic candidate, they may not vote for them in 2020, or 2022, or even 2024.  But persistence can change minds.

Also, the occasional upset DOES happen.

State	Candidates	Notes
Tennessee	Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw	This is Tennessee, and Hagerty won the Republican nomination by hugging Trump the hardest.  But Bradshaw is a true progressive, and scored a stunning upset in the Democratic race with practically no money.  Imagine what she might do if she HAS money.
	*(O) Republican: Bill Hagerty
West Virginia	Democrat: Paula Jean Swearengin	Moore-Capito appears to be a moderate Republican.  But she still voted to acquit Trump, while Swearengin is a true progressive, endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
	* Republican: Shelley Moore-Capito
Oklahoma	Democrat: Abby Broyles	Broyles is a progressive, running against someone who's held elective office for more than a half-century, and who knows he doesn't have to bother with debates.  While Broyles is clearly an underdog, some give her the best chance of winning of any Oklahoma Democrat in more than a decade.
	* Republican: James Inhofe
Idaho	Democrat: Paulette Jordan	Lather, rinse, repeat.  Risch is a heavy favorite in a deep red state, willing to lie for Trump.  Jordan is a sane progressive who recognizes the need for more #COVID19 stimulus.  She almost certainly won't win, but she still deserves support.
	* Republican: Jim Risch
Wyoming	Democrat: Merav Ben-David	Yeah, I give up.  This is Wyoming, and all of the news articles I can find with any content are behind a paywall.  So, you know, give some money to Ben-David, the anti-Trump candidate who will almost certainly lose.
	*(O) Republican: Cynthia Lummis
South Dakota	Democrat: Daniel Ahlers	Rounds is a typical Republican, reluctant to criticize Trump or white supremacists.  Ahlers is a typical Democrat, who desires to help people and work toward racial justice and so forth.
	* Republican: Mike Rounds