2022 Midterms: Senate Bang for Your Buck

Yesterday, we looked at the most competitive races for the U.S. House this year, which by definition are the races where your donations are likely to do the most good.  Today we look at the U.S. Senate.

While there are 53 House races which are more or less competitive, there are only 11 such Senate races (and one of those is a bit of a stretch).  I'm listing them here in order from most likely D victory to most likely R victory.  So if you use this listing to make decisions about campaign contributions, you probably want to start near the bottom (say Tim Ryan-ish) and work your way up.  Val Demings has an uphill battle in Florida, with the full voter suppression apparatus of the state against her.  And Evan McMullin is a bit of a hail mary, too.

On the other end, it's just my opinion, but I think Bennet, Hassan, Kelly and Fetterman all have strong chances of winning.  So if your budget is tight, perhaps don't go any higher than Cortez Masto.

These rankings were compiled from the following sources:

• The Cook Political Report
• Sabato's Crystal Ball
• Inside Elections

As was the case yesterday, incumbents are indicated in BOLD.   After each candidate's name is the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of September 29, 2022.

1. Michael Bennet (CO) - +9
   
2. Maggie Hassan (NH) - +7
   
3. Mark Kelly (AZ) - +7
   
4. John Fetterman (PA) - +6
   
5. Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) - EVEN
   
6. Raphael Warnock (GA) - +2
   
7. Mandela Barnes (WI) - (-1)
   
8. Cheri Beasley (NC) - EVEN
   
9. Tim Ryan (OH) - EVEN
   
10. Val Demings (FL) - (-4)
    
11. Evan McMullin (UT) - (-7)

As you can see the last two races aren't particularly competitive.  I included the Florida race mostly because I still think there's a chance the DeSantis' general awfulness will come back to bite him before the election, and if it does, it may have a ripple effect on other Republicans in the state.

I included McMullin only because there are multiple recent polls showing GOP incumbent Lee with a small (2-4 points) lead, but with more than 20% of voters undecided.  I would estimate McMullin's chances of victory at 5% or less, but with such a large pool of undecided voters, miracles can sometimes happen.