2022 Midterms: Senate Bang for Your Buck

Yesterday, we looked at the most competitive races for the U.S. House this year, which by definition are the races where your donations are likely to do the most good.  Today we look at the U.S. Senate.

While there are 53 House races which are more or less competitive, there are only 11 such Senate races (and one of those is a bit of a stretch).  I'm listing them here in order from most likely D victory to most likely R victory.  So if you use this listing to make decisions about campaign contributions, you probably want to start near the bottom (say Tim Ryan-ish) and work your way up.  Val Demings has an uphill battle in Florida, with the full voter suppression apparatus of the state against her.  And Evan McMullin is a bit of a hail mary, too.

On the other end, it's just my opinion, but I think Bennet, Hassan, Kelly and Fetterman all have strong chances of winning.  So if your budget is tight, perhaps don't go any higher than Cortez Masto.

These rankings were compiled from the following sources:

• The Cook Political Report
• Sabato's Crystal Ball
• Inside Elections

As was the case yesterday, incumbents are indicated in BOLD.   After each candidate's name is the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of September 29, 2022.

1. Michael Bennet (CO) - +9
   
2. Maggie Hassan (NH) - +7
   
3. Mark Kelly (AZ) - +7
   
4. John Fetterman (PA) - +6
   
5. Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) - EVEN
   
6. Raphael Warnock (GA) - +2
   
7. Mandela Barnes (WI) - (-1)
   
8. Cheri Beasley (NC) - EVEN
   
9. Tim Ryan (OH) - EVEN
   
10. Val Demings (FL) - (-4)
    
11. Evan McMullin (UT) - (-7)

As you can see the last two races aren't particularly competitive.  I included the Florida race mostly because I still think there's a chance the DeSantis' general awfulness will come back to bite him before the election, and if it does, it may have a ripple effect on other Republicans in the state.

I included McMullin only because there are multiple recent polls showing GOP incumbent Lee with a small (2-4 points) lead, but with more than 20% of voters undecided.  I would estimate McMullin's chances of victory at 5% or less, but with such a large pool of undecided voters, miracles can sometimes happen.

 

2022 Midterms: Congressional Bang for Your Buck

 The goal for Democrats in 2022 is twofold:

1. Keep control of the U.S. House
2. Gain at least two Senate seats, so they can stop caring what Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema think, end the filibuster, and actually pass legislation that will help the country.

Surprising as it may sound, goal #1 is the tougher challenge.  So with just about six week until the election, I'm making suggestions for where one can donate money to make the biggest impact in retaining control of the House.

The strategy is simple: Target congressional races which could go either way.  After all, it's a waste of money to contribute to a candidate who is 10 points ahead in the polls (or 10 points behind).

So I looked at the analysis of the closest congressional races from three different sources:

• The Cook Political Report
• Sabato's Crystal Ball
• 270 To Win

Below are the races which are considered either 'Lean Democrat', 'Tossup' or 'Lean Republican' (or similar expressions) by all three.  All three sources give the Republicans the advantage when calculating the base of 'safe' or 'likely' seats, so the Democrats will need to win a fair number of the following races to keep control.

There are 53 names on the list, so obviously it will be a stretch to donate to all of them.  So consider things like: Does the candidate live in a state with a competitive senate or gubernatorial race?  Helping out a House candidate in such a state may help Democratic turnout overall in that state.  Alternatively, you could choose to support the Democrats running against the most odious GOP candidates.

And if you can't support all of them financially, you can help out by writing letters in their state or district to help turn out the vote!

Incumbents are highlighted in BOLD text.  In alphabetical order by state, the candidates are:

• AK-AL: How sweet is it that Mary Peltola beat Sarah Palin to fill Alaska's House seat, after it had been held by Republican Don Young for nearly half a century? How sweet would be to see her do it again?
• AZ-01: Jevin Hodge
• AZ-02: Tom O'Halleran
• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel
• CA-09: Josh Harder
• CA-13: Adam Gray
• CA-22: Rudy Salas
• CA-27: Christy Smith
• CA-45: Jay Chen
• CA-47: Katie Porter is awesome. If we had 535 Katie Porters in Congress, this country would be a lot less screwed up.
• CA-49: Mike Levin
• CO-08: Yadira Caraveo
• CT-05: Jahana Hayes
• IA-03: Cindy Axne
• IL-13: Nikki Budzinski
• IL-17: Eric Sorensen
• IN-01: Frank Mrvan
• KS-03: Sharice Davids
• ME-02: I wish a different Democrat were running for this seat.  Democrats can't afford to give up even one seat, but Jared Golden isn't a particularly committed Democrat.
• MI-03: Hillary Scholten
• MI-07: Elissa Slotkin
• MI-08: Dan Kildee
• MN-02: Angie Craig
• NC-01: Don Davis - UPDATE, 10/23/2022: Davis is now considered the likely winner!
  
• NC-13: Wiley Nickel
• NE-02: Tony Vargas
• NH-01: Chris Pappas
• NH-02: Annie Kuster
• NJ-07: Tom Malinowski
• NM-02: Gabe Vasquez
• NV-01: Dina Titus
• NV-03: Susie Lee
• NV-04: Steven Horsford
• NY-01: Bridget Fleming
• NY-03: Robert Zimmerman
• NY-17: Sean Maloney
• NY-18: Pat Ryan
• NY-19: Josh Riley
  
• NY-22: Francis Conole
• OH-01: Greg Landsman
• OH-09: Marcy Kaptur is a good candidate to support, if you're having trouble choosing, if only because her GOP opponent J.R. Majewski is so deplorable.
• OH-13: Emilia Sykes
• OR-05: Jamie McLeod-Skinner
• PA-07: Susan Wild
• PA-08: Matt Cartwright
• PA-17: Chris Deluzio
• RI-02: Seth Magaziner
• TX-28: Henry Cuellar is the last anti-abortion Democrat in Congress.  We can't afford to give up any seats, but since you probably aren't donating to all of these candidates, I thought I'd mention it.
• TX-34: Vicente Gonzalez
• VA-02: Elaine Luria
• VA-07: Abigail Spanberger
• WA-08: Kim Schrier
• WI-03: Brad Pfaff

And this is just the close House races.  Watch this space for info about close Senate races and gubernatorial races.