Sunday, October 23, 2022

Insomnia

This started it's life as a Twitter thread ---

It's 4:30 AM. I've been awake for the past 2 hours. Follow along if you want to know what's been roiling around in my head.

Surprise! It's about the election. It seems to me that there are two rock-solid, nothing-else-matters reasons to vote a straight D ticket on November 8. This is one of the reasons.

The other reason is pretty straightforward, also.

For some reason, it seems that a lot of people don't see things the way I do. Recent polls have shown it more and more likely that Republicans will re-take the House, and possibly the Senate as well. And I'm lying awake thinking: What the hell?

I know Fox News and it's even more #Fascist kin have been filling peoples' heads with lies. But really? THAT many people are THAT deluded? Democrats won the House by a nearly 9-point margin in 2018. What happened in the past 4 years to give the GOP the edge?

Most likely, it's two things: 

  1. Donald Trump isn't president any more, so people incorrectly believe politics is back to what it was in 2014.
  2. Inflation.


We'll get to politics in a second, but let's discuss inflation.

Yep, inflation is bad. Historically bad. But this isn't a problem *just* in the U.S. Inflation is spiking all over the world. To be fair, yes, Biden and the Democrats probably *DID* overspend on COVID stimulus. But there are other factors.

COVID also sent a shock through the supply chain. Russia invaded Ukraine. There are no easy solutions --- and FWIW, Republicans have offered no solutions AT ALL. Voting Republican might make you feel like you're doing something, but it isn't going to fix inflation.

Two things will bring inflation down: Fed interest rate hikes, and the Inflation Reduction Act. And inflation will come down when it comes down, no matter who controls Congress. (And even the Wall Street Journal agrees the IRA will work). 

So --- inflation is NOT a reason to vote Republican.

Let's return to the political side. Do you really think the GOP today is the same as they were 8 years ago?

If so, you are badly mistaken.

Remember --- Trump and his thugs tried to overthrow the government 2 years ago.
 
And --- so far as we know --- no GOP members of Congress participated in the insurrection.

But they don't seem especially upset about it, either.

They have systematically opposed, condemned, and undermined all attempts to investigate and punish those responsible.
 
They delayed the creation of the @January6thCmte for months, and then when it finally got up and running, the two GOP members of the committee were condemned as RINOs (Republicans In Name Only).

They said that *LIZ CHENEY* was not a real Republican.
 
Only 10 GOP members of Congress (out of more than 200) voted to impeach Trump for the insurrection.

Of those, eight (including Cheney) were forced into retirement. Only 2 are running for re-election in November.
 
Instead, thugs, bullies and probably criminals like Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, and Marjorie Taylor-Greene are considered rising stars in today's GOP.

Gaetz and Jordan asked Trump for 'pre-emptive' pardons before Trump left office.

And there's this.
 
There is no question Trump led the insurrection.
There is no question Trump was behind false slates of electors in SIX STATES.
There is no question Trump stole hundreds of classified documents, putting our national security at risk.
And the GOP is still united behind him.
 
And maybe you think "I'll worry about Trump when he's on the ballot again in 2 years".

Except that by then it might be too late.

GOP lies about the 2020 election are having serious impact on the infrastructure of democracy *TODAY*.
 
Thanks to Trump acolytes like Charlie Kirk and Dinesh D'Souza, there are thousands of MAGA bullies convinced that vote fraud is happening.

So we see 'election watchers' like these, who intimidate people at best --- and get someone killed, at worst.
 
But the worst is that a relentless campaign of right-wing threats and intimidation have driven hard-working, ethical election officials out of office nationwide --- which will cause chaos in 2 weeks.

Nevada is certainly just the start.

The only difference between Republicans in Congress and outright thugs like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers is that members of Congress have to keep a veneer of respectability, because they can't hide in anonymity.

But they're one in the same.
 
If you vote for a Republican, you are quite literally voting for this. You're telling the fascists that you're okay with mob rule.

I'm pretty sure that you're not, really.
 
There are, of course, a lot of other reasons to vote for Democrats.

Senate Republicans filibustered a lot of good legislation which Democrats can pass, if they hold the House and Senate, and pick up at least 2 more Senate seats, so they can override the filibuster.
 
Legislation like Build Back Better, which is similar to the Inflation Reduction Act, but bigger and better.
 
Legislation like The Equality Act, which would protect LGBTQ+ people from discrimination --- like, in particular, the discrimination they face from Ron DeSantis' odious "Don't Say Gay" bill.
 
Legislation like The Crown Act.

You might think: "A bill about hair? Who cares?"

And the answer is: For some reason, Republicans do. OF COURSE we shouldn't discriminate against people of color due to their hair.

But Republicans disagree.
 
Legislation like the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

So that we're less likely to face bully-driven electoral chaos like the GOP has successfully created in Nevada.

And so the GOP can't suppress the vote in predominantly left-leaning/minority areas.
 
Legislation like Women's Health Protection Act. Which would make abortion on demand the law of the land.
 
Which is the only thing that's going to stop this from happening. And yes --- scenes very much like this ACTUALLY ARE happening today.

Why ANYONE --- other than thugs like Trump's paramilitary goons who invaded the Capitol --- would do anything OTHER THAN vote a straight Democrat ticket is beyond me. And the consequences for failing to do so are likely to be dire.

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Saturday, October 1, 2022

2022 Midterms: Bang for Your Gubernatorial Buck

We've already looked at where your dollars can be spent most effectively in U.S. House and Senate races.  Today, we wrap things up by looking at Gubernatorial races.

(NOTE: Of course, state legislative races are important, too, as well as other statewide offices like Secretary of State and Attorney General.  I encourage you to do your own research on those races, where horse-race/polling data is much harder to come by)

There are only 8 races which fall in the range of 'lean Democrat' to 'lean Republican' on this list, and I genuinely believe that each of them could go either way.  Yes, Stacey Abrams is trailing Brian Kemp in Georgia, but Georgia Democrats have come through for us before.

You'll notice that this list does NOT include either Florida or Texas.  Yes, Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis are horrible, and it would be lovely if they were soundly defeated but --- it ain't gonna happen.  These guys are very good at voter suppression, and for reason which defy comprehension, they remain fairly popular in their states.  FWIW, all three ratings sites rate both races as 'likely Republican' and not 'solid Republican', so perhaps there's still some hope.  If you want to give money to Beto O'Rourke or Charlie Crist, go ahead, but I'm not going to recommend it.

These eight races will give you the best bang for your buck.

Again, these selections were culled from ratings from the following three sites:

And once again, I've listed the races from strongest D lean to strongest R lean, along with the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of October 1, 2022.  Incumbents are in BOLD.

NOTE: The reason for the ??? after Laura Kelly's name is that there are currently five polls listed for the Kansas race, and they're all over the map.  The only two polls showing the GOP candidate with the lead are sponsored by right-wing individuals/organizations, but it's not clear that the polls showing Kelly with a lead can be trusted, either.

FWIW, it appears that the candidates facing the most extreme GOP opponents are Katie Hobbs, Janet Mills, and Tony Evers, in that order.

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Thursday, September 29, 2022

2022 Midterms: Senate Bang for Your Buck

Yesterday, we looked at the most competitive races for the U.S. House this year, which by definition are the races where your donations are likely to do the most good.  Today we look at the U.S. Senate.

While there are 53 House races which are more or less competitive, there are only 11 such Senate races (and one of those is a bit of a stretch).  I'm listing them here in order from most likely D victory to most likely R victory.  So if you use this listing to make decisions about campaign contributions, you probably want to start near the bottom (say Tim Ryan-ish) and work your way up.  Val Demings has an uphill battle in Florida, with the full voter suppression apparatus of the state against her.  And Evan McMullin is a bit of a hail mary, too.

On the other end, it's just my opinion, but I think Bennet, Hassan, Kelly and Fetterman all have strong chances of winning.  So if your budget is tight, perhaps don't go any higher than Cortez Masto.

These rankings were compiled from the following sources:

As was the case yesterday, incumbents are indicated in BOLD.   After each candidate's name is the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of September 29, 2022.

  1. Michael Bennet (CO) - +9
  2. Maggie Hassan (NH) - +7
  3. Mark Kelly (AZ) - +7
  4. John Fetterman (PA) - +6
  5. Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) - EVEN
  6. Raphael Warnock (GA) - +2
  7. Mandela Barnes (WI) - (-1)
  8. Cheri Beasley (NC) - EVEN
  9. Tim Ryan (OH) - EVEN
  10. Val Demings (FL) - (-4)
  11. Evan McMullin (UT) - (-7)

As you can see the last two races aren't particularly competitive.  I included the Florida race mostly because I still think there's a chance the DeSantis' general awfulness will come back to bite him before the election, and if it does, it may have a ripple effect on other Republicans in the state.

I included McMullin only because there are multiple recent polls showing GOP incumbent Lee with a small (2-4 points) lead, but with more than 20% of voters undecided.  I would estimate McMullin's chances of victory at 5% or less, but with such a large pool of undecided voters, miracles can sometimes happen.

 

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Wednesday, September 28, 2022

2022 Midterms: Congressional Bang for Your Buck

 The goal for Democrats in 2022 is twofold:

  1. Keep control of the U.S. House
  2. Gain at least two Senate seats, so they can stop caring what Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema think, end the filibuster, and actually pass legislation that will help the country.

Surprising as it may sound, goal #1 is the tougher challenge.  So with just about six week until the election, I'm making suggestions for where one can donate money to make the biggest impact in retaining control of the House.

The strategy is simple: Target congressional races which could go either way.  After all, it's a waste of money to contribute to a candidate who is 10 points ahead in the polls (or 10 points behind).

So I looked at the analysis of the closest congressional races from three different sources:

Below are the races which are considered either 'Lean Democrat', 'Tossup' or 'Lean Republican' (or similar expressions) by all three.  All three sources give the Republicans the advantage when calculating the base of 'safe' or 'likely' seats, so the Democrats will need to win a fair number of the following races to keep control.

There are 53 names on the list, so obviously it will be a stretch to donate to all of them.  So consider things like: Does the candidate live in a state with a competitive senate or gubernatorial race?  Helping out a House candidate in such a state may help Democratic turnout overall in that state.  Alternatively, you could choose to support the Democrats running against the most odious GOP candidates.

And if you can't support all of them financially, you can help out by writing letters in their state or district to help turn out the vote!

Incumbents are highlighted in BOLD text.  In alphabetical order by state, the candidates are:

And this is just the close House races.  Watch this space for info about close Senate races and gubernatorial races.

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Sunday, June 12, 2022

Hey Democrats, Do This

 Testing, testing --- [tap, tap, tap] --- is this thing on?

I don't know what the Democrats' plan for the midterms is.  I'm a bit concerned about this, since they're less than 5 months away.  And I'm not going to sugar-coat it: Democrats are fighting against two powerful headwinds.

First, Joe Biden is deeply unpopular.  I don't understand why, but that's a conversation for another day.  Traditionally, the party holding the White House does poorly in midterm elections, and it doesn't help that  the president has a net -13% approval rating.

Second, inflation is running at approximately 8.0%, which is the highest it's been in 40 years.  Ironically, the last time inflation was this high was early in the Reagan administration, but he was extremely popular, and inflation decreased steadily until the 1988 election.  This isn't just a problem in the U.S., of course, but Republicans know a winning issue when they see one, and they are shouting about it from the rooftops.

So --- what should the Democrats do?

I'm a simple guy, so I'm offering a simple solution.  I'm sending the following letter via email and snail mail to my members of Congress, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, and anyone else I can think of.

If you agree with this solution, I encourage you to do the same.  And please, feel free to share, to increase the chance these words get before the eyes of someone who matters.

No one ever listens to me.

I know you're very busy, so I'll be brief.  I'm a Democrat who has watched the filibuster defeat the heart of President Biden's agenda, and I'm very concerned about the midterms.  I'm writing to suggest what I think is a winning campaign strategy.

In short: Let America know about all of the important legislation Republicans have filibustered.  Most Americans don't know what the filibuster is, and assume that Democrats are to blame for little getting done.  After all, Democrats control both houses of Congress and the White House, right?

We win by hammering home the fact that Republican obstructionism is to blame.  Promise the voters that if Democrats hold the House and gain at least 3 Senate seats (thank you Manchin and Sinema), then Democrats will override the filibuster to pass a raft of popular legislation.

There are at least three highly popular bills Republicans have filibustered:

Additionally, Republicans have filibustered Build Back Better, which doesn't enjoy overwhelming popularity, but it has many popular elements. It also contains provisions to help ease the effect of high gas prices, and leading economists agree it will fight inflation, the Democrats' greatest liability going into the midterms.

Democrats have also passed legislation to decriminalize marijuana, and while Republicans have not filibustered that bill, it also has broad popular support.  It will happen someday --- why not use it to gain a midterm advantage?

Thirty years ago, Republicans swept control of the House from Democrats in a red wave powered by their so-called Contract With America. Now is the time for a Democratic counterpart. Not only does this plan give Democrats the chance to ride popular legislation to electoral victory, but if it works, it also provides a built-in mandate to eliminate the filibuster.  Republicans can't credibly complain about Democrats fulfilling their promise to voters.

As for inflation, point to GOP votes against Build Back Better and the Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act and tell voters that Republicans aren't providing solutions, only blocking the solutions the Democrats have.

I would love to see all of these bills pass.  I think if the Democratic party makes them their midterm platform, that might happen.

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