Final Donation Roundup for 2018

With 8 days to go until the election, it's time to sit down, figure out how much you can afford to give campaigns for their final stretch, and decide where you think your dollars can do the most good.

And I'm here to help.  I believe that the most important thing we can do in these final days is to work to reclaim the Senate.  I'm under no delusion that it will be easy --- consensus opinion is that it won't happen.  But it's also not impossible, and we don't want to spend the next 2 years wondering what if.  So I'm going to strongly encourage folks to give to any and all Senate races where there's even an outside chance of a Democrat victory.

For House and Gubernatorial races, however, I'm only going to include races where FiveThirtyEight estimates that the two parties are separated by less than 3 percentage points (using the 'Deluxe' model).  With just 8 days left, we're really not likely to see much more movement than that.

Choose wisely.  Give what you can.  Then sign up to help Get Out the Vote!!!

Senate

• Beto O'Rourke (TX).  Trailing incumbent Ted Cruz by 5.2%.
• Phil Bredesen (TN).  Trailing Marsha Blackburn by 4.4% in the race to fill the seat vacated by Bob Corker.  MoveOn has pulled its funding from Bredesen for saying he supports Brett Kavanaugh, but that was a mistake.
• Heidi Heitkamp (ND).  Trailing challenger Kevin Cramer by 4.4%.  Cramer who recently said that even if Brett Kavanaugh DID attempt to rape Christine Blasey Ford, it's 'nothing' because it 'never went anywhere'.
• Jacky Rosen (NV).  Trailing incumbent Dean Heller by 0.8%.
• Claire McCaskill (MO).  Leading her challenger by 0.7%.
• Kyrsten Sinema (AZ).  Leading her opponent by 1.7%.
• Joe Donnelly (IN).  Leading his opponent by 2.3%.
• Bill Nelson (FL).  Leading Florida governor Rick Scott by 2.6%.

Two points to call out here.  First, if these numbers match the final results at the polls, then Republicans will retain their 51-49 Senate majority.  So somehow, the Democrats need to beat the odds in two of the four races in Texas, Tennessee, North Dakota and Nevada.

So if you live in or near any of those states, please help GOTV!

Second --- sadly, the Republicans have been steadily gaining ground in all of these races.  It appears that their xenophobic fearmongering about the refugee caravan is having the desired effect.

House

• Kim Schrier (WA-08).  Leading by 1.2%.
• Katie Hill (CA-25).  Leading by 2.0%.
• Harley Rouda (CA-48).  Leading by 2.6%.  This would be a huge victory, as it would bring down incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher.
• Katie Porter (CA-45).  Leading by 2.6%.
• Ben McAdams (UT-04).  Leading by 0.2%.
• Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02).  Trailing by 0.4%.
• Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07).  Leading by 0.2%.
• Collin Allred (TX-32).  Trailing by 1.8%.
• Dan Feehan (MN-01).  Leading by 0.8%.
• Cindy Axne (IA-03).  Leading by 2.5%.
• Sean Casten (IL-06).  Leading by 2.2%.
• Lauren Underwood (IL-14).  Trailing by 2.0%.
• Kristen Carlson (FL-15).  Trailing by 1.8%.
• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26).  Leading by 0.2%.
• Amy McGrath (KY-06).  Leading by 0.5%.
• Elissa Slotkin (MI-08).  Leading by 0.4%.
• Danny O'Connor (OH-12).  Trailing by 1.9%.
• Scott Wallace (PA-01).  Trailing by 0.4%.
• Abigail Spanberger (VA-07).  Leading by 0.1%.  This would be an especially sweet win.
• Leslie Cockburn (VA-05).  Trailing by 2.0%.
• Kathy Manning (NC-13).  Trailing by 2.0%.
• Dan McCready (NC-09).  Leading by 1.0%.
• Andy Kim (NJ-03).  Leading by 1.4%.
• Tom Malinowski (NJ-07).  Leading by 1.9%.
• Anthony Brindisi (NY-22).  Leading by 1.6%.
• Antonio Delgado (NY-19).  Leading by 1.4%.
• Jared Golden (ME-02).  Leading by 1.8%.

UPDATE: SwingLeft has a site set up where you can make a single donation that will be split evenly among Porter, Mucarsel-Powell, Finkenauer, Golden, Brindisi, Scott, Allred, McAdams and Spanberger, if you want to save yourself some clicks.

Governor

• Steve Sisolak (NV).  Trailing by 1.4%.
• Tony Evers (WI).  Leading by 1.7%.
• Richard Cordray (OH).  Trailng by 1.2%.
• Stacey Abrams (GA).  Trailing by 0.8%.  I don't know whether FiveThirtyEight has taken blatant Republican vote suppression into consideration when forecasting the race.