COVID19 Update - Day 82

US Tests: 16,936,891

US Cases: 1,783,570

US Deaths: 98,536

Worldwide Cases: 6,164,784

Worldwide Deaths: 371,987

The U.S. is on pace to have 5,000,000 coronavirus cases, and more than 250,000 deaths, by election day.  Rioting continues in dozens of American cities.  More than 40 million Americans have lost their jobs since the pandemic struck.  The country is in desperate need of a strong leader who can calm and unite us, but instead, we get this:

Trump and advisers calculated that he shouldn’t speak to the nation because he had nothing to say, no tangible policy or action to announce, nor did he feel an urgent motivation to try to bring people together. So he let his tweets speak for themselves. https://t.co/JjcIC8oxiD

— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) May 31, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 81

US Tests: 16,495,443

US Cases: 1,759,693

US Deaths: 97,880

Worldwide Cases: 6,057,553

Worldwide Deaths: 369,106

Thousands and thousands of Americans have died from the pandemic --- and it's the second biggest disaster in the country right now.

Officials across America are bracing for another night of escalating unrest after clashes erupted between protesters and police in dozens of cities Saturday. Tensions flared in cities from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to Columbia, S.C., and New York as thousands of people amassed to protest the death of a black man in police custody.

Police cars were set aflame, freeways were blocked, windows were shattered and authorities deployed tear gas and even rubber bullets. Multiple governors activated the National Guard and curfews were enacted in several major cities, including Atlanta, Louisville, Denver and Milwaukee.

Seattle called in 200 National Guard members, who were to be unarmed. Los Angeles established a curfew but resisted using the National Guard, with Mayor Eric Garcetti not wanting to evoke memories of the 1992 Rodney King riots. “If you love the city, go home,” he said.

In Washington, D.C., protesters clashed with the Secret Service after tearing through a fence. In Chicago, demonstrators swarmed Trump Tower. In Philadelphia, demonstrators broke into a store near city hall and set a fire inside, attempted to to tear down the statue of a former mayor and ignored an 8 p.m. curfew.

Here are some significant developments:

• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) said he was “fully” mobilizing the National Guard in the Twin Cities. The Guard has also been activated in Georgia, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Colorado, Ohio, Tennessee and Utah.

• Minneapolis police said they were “overwhelmed” after responding to hundreds of 911 calls about gunfire, property damage and burglaries in the days after George Floyd, a black man died, after a white police officer held his knee on the 46-year-old’s neck for more than eight minutes.

• Fired Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin was charged Friday with third-degree murder and manslaughter in Floyd’s death. Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman said he also anticipates charges for three other officers who were fired over Floyd’s death.

Sadly, what's happening nationally is also what's happening locally right now.  And locally, it would seem that it's time for the Minneapolis Chief of Police to resign:

“This was a 100 percent peaceful march and the police fired rubber bullets and tear gas.” @AliVelshi
“There was zero warning. They lined up on the street and started firing.”

— Sara Nelson (@FlyingWithSara) May 31, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 80

US Tests: 16,099,515

US Cases: 1,736,571

US Deaths: 96,891

Worldwide Cases: 5,923,432

Worldwide Deaths: 364,836

Stunningly, the pandemic isn't the most important thing happening in the country right now.  So I'm not discussing it tonight.  Instead, I'm going to direct your attention to Josh Marshall:

We awake to a bewildering, sobering tableau. A second night of protests engulfed Minneapolis in the wake of the police killing George Floyd and a news conference in which the county district attorney, Mike Freeman, appeared to resist bringing charges against the police officer, Derek Chauvin, who was videotaped kneeling on Floyd’s neck before he died.

Protesters-turned-rioters took control the city’s 3rd precinct after police evacuated the building and then set it on fire. In the early morning, Minneapolis Police arrested a compliant CNN news crew and reporter Omar Jimenez live on air. Overnight, President Trump, still egging on his faux battle with Twitter and threats to regulate it out of existence, went on the platform to threaten mass carnage against the city’s “thugs.”

Just spoke to Governor Tim Walz and told him that the Military is with him all the way. Any difficulty and we will assume control but, when the looting starts, the shooting starts. Thank you! 

Twitter flagged the tweet with a content warning that it “violated the Twitter Rules about glorifying violence.” This comes less than 24 hours after he amplified a call to kill Democrats. This is the President of the United States.

That this all occurred as the country remains gripped in an historic epidemic which has just taken the 100,000th American life and the national economy staggers under the weight of that crisis simply adds to the surreality and crisis of America under Donald Trump.

Even in this time, when every day for the past 3.5 years has felt like a watershed, today seems to be a true watershed.  An inflection point, where the country will either turn resolutely against Trump and the Republican party, or resolutely embrace them.  My suspicion and my hope is that it will be the former.

As a Minnesotan and Twin Cities resident, I am more than typically aware of the George Floyd murder, and the resultant fallout.  As I write this, my home county in the southeastern suburbs of the Twin Cities is under curfew.

The original sin of American racism won't go away until middle class white people like me do the work to excise it from our country.  I don't know yet how to make that happen.

But I aim to find out.

Update: Yep.  Definitely a watershed.

The White House is under lockdown orders from the U.S. Secret Service due to protests outside the gates over George Floyd.
A dozen reporters, myself included, still inside the West Wing.

— Peter Alexander (@PeterAlexander) May 29, 2020

COVID19 Update - Day 79

US Tests: 15,646,041

US Cases: 1,712,637

US Deaths: 95,705

Worldwide Cases: 5,803,416

Worldwide Deaths: 359,791

There are a lot of people --- me, for instance --- who insisted that various states were reopening too soon, and it would only result in more deaths.

Unfortunately, events are already proving us right.  In Missouri, for example.  And in Wisconsin:

Two weeks to the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Governor Tony Evers’ “Safer at Home” order, the state has set a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, as 642 positive cases were identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 16,565 — and increasing the number of currently active cases by more than 10 percent.

Additionally, the day was the deadliest so far, as 22 people succumbed to COVID19 since this time Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to 539.

The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive also rose from 3.6 percent to 5.8 in the past 24 hours.

The virus is still deadly.  Not enough people are wearing masks --- probably the single most effective thing the average person can do to help end the pandemic.  Just because you live in a state where things are reopening doesn't mean it's a good idea.

We are nowhere close to the end of this thing.

COVID19 Update - Day 78

US Tests: 15,192,481

US Cases: 1,689,630

US Deaths: 94,352

Worldwide Cases: 5,690,951

Worldwide Deaths: 355,615

From the start, I have relied on the COVID Tracking Project for data about tests, infections and deaths in the U.S., and will continue to do so.  But according to Johns Hopkins University, today is the day that the number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. crossed the 100,000 mark.

But that's almost certainly an undercount, according to the Health Care Cost Institute:

The study’s findings largely align with government estimates, which have suggested significantly increased deaths around the country starting in March and continuing up to the present day. Government statistics rely on death certificates, and not obituaries.

The alignment between the two suggests that the government’s reporting has been reliable, including in its estimates of excess deaths. The CDC currently estimates non-COVID-19 excess deaths since Feb. 1 at between 22,105 and 43,204.

COVID19 Update - Day 77

US Tests: 14,907,041
US Cases: 1,671,035
US Deaths: 93,093
Worldwide Cases: 5,588,299
Worldwide Deaths: 350,423

A study released today demonstrates that, much to the surprise of no one, watching Fox News is hazardous to your health:

We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. The average partial effect of Fox News viewership in a zipcode implies that 1 percentage point increase in cable viewership reduces the propensity to stay at home by 8.9 percentage points compared to the prepandemic average. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 33.5%-50%across our various social distancing metrics.

Small wonder Fox News is currently getting sued for its coronavirus coverage.

COVID19 Update - Day 76

US Tests: 14,604,942
US Cases: 1,654,829
US Deaths: 92,464
Worldwide Cases: 5,493,950
Worldwide Deaths: 346,218

The good news is, coronavirus deaths have been steadily decreasing --- from 1,100 Saturday, to 700 yesterday, to 500 today.  This is likely just a temporary respite, and probably the 3-day weekend caused a dip in reporting.

The bad news is, white supremacists are getting bolder with their acts of terrorism.  In Kentucky, a group of white supremacists hung Democratic governor Andy Beshear in effigy.  And in North Carolina, the husband of the founder of the white supremacist group ReOpenNC said:

"We want to pick up arms? Do we want to kill anybody? Of course not, nobody wants to take lives. We don’t want to kill anybody. But are we willing to kill people, are we willing to lay our lives down? Yes. We have to say yes,"

It may be just a coincidence, but North Carolina also happens to have a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper.  I'm unable to find any groups hanging GOP governors Larry Hogan of Maryland or Charles Baker of Massachusetts in effigy (although there have been reopen protests in both of those states).

COVID19 Update - Day 75

US Tests: 14,163,915
US Cases: 1,634,921
US Deaths: 91,941
Worldwide Cases: 5,383,582
Worldwide Deaths: 343,880

I disagree with Rick Scott, Asa Hutchinson and Mike DeWine on practically everything, but I have to give them credit for being willing to put common sense ahead of party orthodoxy --- at least where life and death is concerned:

Three prominent Republicans bolstered North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s (R) emotional plea to end the “political” divide on mask-wearing requirements during Sunday morning interviews.

Unlike President Trump’s refusal to wear a mask while touring a Ford plant outside of Michigan on Thursday — despite White House staffers being ordered to do so after two aides tested positive for the novel coronavirus earlier this month — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) are encouraging the public to take precautions such as mask-wearing seriously as states begin easing coronavirus restrictions over Memorial Day weekend.

All three Republicans also expressed the need to reopen the economy while promoting efforts to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

It cannot be emphasized strongly enough that protective measures such as mask-wearing help save lives.  But not only that --- if EVERYONE committed to wearing masks and social distancing, we probably could have opened up the economy long ago.

This isn't just a theory.  A friend of mine from Taiwan just posted on Facebook today that it has been 42 days since a domestic transmission of the disease.  Only 20 people in the country are currently infected, and they're under quarantine --- which means that the other 23 million people can go 'back to normal'.

There are two big differences between Taiwan and the U.S. --- for one thing, there have been no recorded cases of idiots with guns protesting against the wearing of masks and social distancing.  And for another, Taiwan's leaders actually led the nation's response based on public health and science, rather than ranting pointlessly about hydroxychloriquine and suggesting that people should inject bleach into their lungs.

Perhaps there's a lesson there.

COVID19 Update - Day 74

US Tests: 13,784,786
US Cases: 1,613,894
US Deaths: 91,261
Worldwide Cases: 5,310,362
Worldwide Deaths: 342,097

Today's news about how Trump is spectacularly mismanaging the U.S. pandemic response is back on snake oil hydroxychloroquine again.  Although there was anecdotal evidence to suspect that taking hydroxychloroquine for the hell of it was a bad idea, this is the first study I've seen with hard data to back it up:

Hydroxychloroquine and President Trump’s obsession with it has been something of a running joke during the COVID19 Crisis, to the extent jokes are possible in such a dismal climate. But I want to flag your attention to this new study published in The Lancet, which has dire findings about the impact of hydroxychloroquine and the hydroxychloroquine in combination with the class of antibiotics the President has repeatedly endorsed. Here’s the study and here’s a write-up of the study in The Washington Post. Let me start with an arresting quote: “for those receiving hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic — the cocktail endorsed by Trump — there was a 45 percent increased risk of death … ”

That is, to state the obvious, a very bad number.

Sadly, it's unlikely that this study, or other studies like it, or even a proper double-blind study, or a boatload full of them, will stop Trump's zealotry on this topic.  And that's a problem, because certain populations will suffer from it more than others.

Like veterans, for example:

VA Secretary Robert Wilkie, in a letter and documents provided to Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), said the department had prescribed hydroxychloroquine to about 1,300 coronavirus patients of more than 10,000 veterans treated for the coronavirus "and will continue to do so in accordance with Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines." 

. . .

CNN reported in April on a study, which hadn't been peer reviewed, based on hundreds of patients in VA medical centers that found that coronavirus patients taking the drug did not see a reduced need for ventilation and had higher death rates compared to patients who did not take the medication.

Probably not a great way to 'support the troops'.

Minnesota has gone off the deep end.  Once or twice in the past few days, I have observed that perhaps Minnesota's plans to reopen are premature, given a recent spike in COVID19 infections and deaths, both within the health care provider I work for and across the state generally.  Today brought even more data to deepen this concern.

The increase in cases and fatalities doesn't seem to phase most Minnesotans, however.  I was at Home Depot today, and there were more cars in the lot than I have ever seen.  And only about half of the people there --- employees and customers alike --- were masked.

We ain't seen nothing yet.

COVID19 Update - Day 73

US Tests: 13,398,624
US Cases: 1,591,475
US Deaths: 90,156
Worldwide Cases: 5,213,483
Worldwide Deaths: 338,225

In fairness to Trump, it appears that there is one country in the world --- one --- that's doing a worse job responding to the pandemic than the United States:

Brazil is one of the few large countries in the world where coronavirus cases — and death rates — are still rising.

It is Latin America's hardest-hit country, with confirmed cases climbing by the thousands each day.

Only the United States has more confirmed cases than Brazil, which passed 300,000 this week. More than 20,000 people have died.

The health care system in Brazil's largest city, Sao Paulo, is wavering on the brink of collapse. Its mayor warned that the health system could be overwhelmed soon if residents don't follow social-distancing guidelines.

Nevertheless, the parallels between Brazil and the U.S. are disturbing, to say the least:

President Jair Bolsonaro continues to dismiss the threat of the virus, saying quarantines and lockdowns could have a worse impact on Brazil's economy. He has repeatedly dismissed Covid-19 as a "little flu" and urged businesses to reopen, even as many governors scramble to implement social-distancing measures and slow the spread.

On the personal side, this update is only going up so late because my son is spending the weekend with me.  Both of my kids were supposed to be here, but my daughter needed time away from her brother.  This isn't surprising --- they're 17 and 19, and they've been cooped up with one another more or less non-stop for the past 9 weeks.  So fine, I'll spend the weekend with just one of my children this weekend.

We watched the movie Little Miss Sunshine, and then the final three episodes of The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin, and then he insisted on playing some old school videos games --- by which I mean, Wii Play and Wii Sports.

He's still playing.  But I'm old, and I need to go to bed.

 

COVID19 Update - Day 72

US Tests: 13,056,206
US Cases: 1,567,427
US Deaths: 88,985
Worldwide Cases: 5,076,846
Worldwide Deaths: 331,137

Trump may be desperately working to get everyone to ignore close to 100,000 American deaths from the coronavirus, just like he is.  But at least he's taking the time to screw the National Guard:

More than 40,000 National Guard members currently helping states test residents for the coronavirus and trace the spread of infections will face a “hard stop” on their deployments on June 24 — just one day shy of many members becoming eligible for key federal benefits, according to a senior FEMA official.

The official outlined the Trump administration’s plans on an interagency call on May 12, an audio version of which was obtained by POLITICO. The official also acknowledged during the call that the June 24 deadline means that thousands of members who first deployed in late March will find themselves with only 89 days of duty credit, one short of the 90-day threshold for qualifying for early retirement and education benefits under the Post-9/11 GI bill.

Sure, this move will move the U.S. even further away from the #1 thing it needs to be doing during this crisis --- performing more tests --- but at least it will keep 40,000 members of the National Guard from getting benefits promised to them in a bill passed after 9/11 to help first responders.

COVID19 Update - Day 71

US Tests: 12,647,791
US Cases: 1,542,309
US Deaths: 87,472
Worldwide Cases: 4,992,487
Worldwide Deaths: 327,642

I owe you a lot of content today, so let's get started.  Today, a number of scientists at the CDC confirmed that Trump screwed up the U.S. response to the virus because he was concerned about the political fallout:

In interviews with CNN, CDC officials say their agency's efforts to mount a coordinated response to the Covid-19 pandemic have been hamstrung by a White House whose decisions are driven by politics rather than science.

The result has worsened the effects of the crisis, sources inside the CDC say, relegating the 73-year-old agency that has traditionally led the nation's response to infectious disease to a supporting role.

Rising tensions between CDC leadership and the White House over the perception that the agency has been sidelined has been a developing story in the media for weeks. But now, mid- and higher-ranking staff members within the agency -- six of whom spoke with CNN for this story -- are starting to voice their discontent. Those six spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

"We've been muzzled," said a current CDC official. "What's tough is that if we would have acted earlier on what we knew and recommended, we would have saved lives and money."

And as we all know by now, a small but substantial subset of people chose to ignore the guidance of CDC and other experts.  And it's all but certain that they were encouraged to continue risky behaviors by Trump's refusal to put expert, scientific guidance front and center.

Small groups like this church in Texas, for example:

Holy Ghost Catholic Church in Houston reopened its doors on May 2, as the Lone Star State began loosening its stay-at-home orders.

But on May 14, the parish canceled all services after Father Donnell Kirchner died. Five members of the congregation tested positive for COVID-19, church officials said Monday.

"If you have attended Masses in person at Holy Ghost Church since the reopening on May 2nd, you are strongly encouraged to monitor your health for any symptoms and be tested for COVID-19, as a precautionary measure," the Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston said in a statement to Fox News.

And just to complete their horribleness, Republican leaders continue to be more concerned about covering up the facts of their incompetence than they are in actually responding to the pandemic.  Stories like this show that there's no reason to trust data about the pandemic coming out of red states:

One day before a top Florida Department of Health data manager lost her role maintaining the state’s COVID-19 data, she objected to the removal of records showing people had symptoms or positive tests before the cases were announced, according to internal emails obtained by the Tampa Bay Times.

On Tuesday, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis said she had been fired.

Closer to home, the health care provider I work for is seeing a spike in new COVID19 cases.  I received this in an email yesterday:

Today is an all-time high for patients hospitalized. We are seeing an increase after holding steady for a week.

They also report a 50% increase in COVID19 cases at one of their hospitals in a week.

I'm greatly concerned about Minnesota relaxing their stay at home policy.  And Minnesota is considered to be one of the states doing things right.

We are nowhere close to the end of this thing.

COVID19 Update - Day 70

US Tests: 12,233,987
US Cases: 1,520,778
US Deaths: 86,070
Worldwide Cases: 4,893,195
Worldwide Deaths: 323,221

That's all I'm posting today, because I have an online game of Cards Against Humanity (trademark-free name: Remote Insensitivity) starting up in about 13 minutes.  You can play that game, and a bunch of others, for free here:

http://playingcards.io/

Usual documentation of the atrocities resumes tomorrow.

COVID19 Update - Day 69

US Tests: 11,834,508
US Cases: 1,499,722
US Deaths: 84,640
Worldwide Cases: 4,798,594
Worldwide Deaths: 318,303

If you want to protest the lockdown, at least keep it to yourself.  It's one thing to protest the lockdown.  It's another thing entirely to be stupid about it, so that you actually make the pandemic worse:

In the 48 hours following a 19 April “Operation Gridlock” protest in Denver, devices reached the borders of neighboring states including Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Utah.

In Florida on 18 April, devices returned to all parts of the peninsula and up to the Georgia border. In Wisconsin on 24 April, devices returned to smaller towns like Green Bay and Wausau, and the borders of Minnesota and Illinois.

Following the initial wave of anti-lockdown protests in April, epidemiologists warned that they could lead to a new surge in cases.

In North Carolina in late April, one of the leaders of the state’s anti-lockdown protests tested positive for Covid-19 but said she would attend future rallies.

Dr Rob Davidson, executive director of the Committee to Protect Medicare, said that although “it’s hard to draw a straight line between devices, individuals at these protests, and cases”, the data suggests that the protests may be epidemiologically significant events.

“The behavior we’re seeing at protests carries a high risk of infection. We can see protesters are going from a highly concentrated event and then dispersing widely,” he added.

It is completely appropriate to refer to these morons as the Trump Death Cult.  They're not content merely to off themselves; they want to take the rest of us with them.

COVID19 Update - Day 68

US Tests: 11,499,203
US Cases: 1,479,856
US Deaths: 83,854
Worldwide Cases: 4,710,614
Worldwide Deaths: 315,023

A medical journal has given Joe Biden an endorsement in his campaign against Trump, but it's not a journal run by a bunch of Democrats.  In fact, it's not even run by Americans at all; it's the British journal The Lancet:

"The Administration is obsessed with magic bullets — vaccines, new medicines, or a hope that the virus will simply disappear," the journal states. "But only a steadfast reliance on basic public health principles, like test, trace, and isolate, will see the emergency brought to an end, and this requires an effective national public health agency."

Seeking to lay a pile of critical failings at Trump's feet, the editorial — titled "Reviving the U.S. CDC" — says a federal agency that was once "the gold standard for global disease detection and control" has devolved into an "ineffective and nominal adviser" on the U.S. response to a disease that poses a public health threat of historic proportions.

The Trump administration has "chipped away at the CDC's capacity to combat infectious diseases" in a number of ways, The Lancet says, citing the reduction of CDC staff in China and the withdrawal of the last American CDC expert from the Chinese CDC campus last July – moves that left an "intelligence vacuum" when the novel coronavirus was detected in Hubei province in late 2019.

And The Lancet says that partly because of the CDC's own errors – chiefly a mistaken early insistence on maintaining control of coronavirus testing — "The USA is still nowhere near able to provide the basic surveillance or laboratory testing infrastructure needed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic."

This isn't going to change any minds in the Trump Death Cult, because nothing will.  But for those who still have the ability to discern objective reality, this is every bit as damning an indictment of Trump as anything else we've seen the past 3 months.

It's saying that Americans are dying, and that Trump and his GOP enablers aren't able to carry out the most basic job of government: keeping Americans safe.

On the personal side, I had my usual 3 hour Zoom chat with other alumni from my college today.  It was fun.  And with the warmer weather and the expectation that it's really hard to catch the virus from others if you're outside, there's been some talk about actually socializing again, for picnics and whatnot (while observing appropriate social distancing, of course).

We need to be able to appreciate the little things.

COVID19 Update - Day 67

US Tests: 11,077,179
US Cases: 1,458,787
US Deaths: 83,015
Worldwide Cases: 4,621,327
Worldwide Deaths: 310,869

I went for a long walk today.  It was pleasant.  There's a new footbridge that's opened up not far from here.  And when I say 'new', I mean 'newly-renovated', because the bridge itself has been around for more than 100 years.  And when I say 'newly-renovated', I mean 'sometime in the past 5 years or so, at any rate it's the first time I've been there when I can walk across it'.

I may have come to a realization, which I'm not going to share publicly because reasons.

And then I went and visited with my children and their mom.  I played Risk with them and was soundly defeated.

All in all, not a bad day.

COVID19 Update - Day 66

US Tests: 10,720,185
US Cases: 1,433,696
US Deaths: 81,729
Worldwide Cases: 4,542,752
Worldwide Deaths: 307,696

It's late, because I spent the evening virtually socializing with a bunch of my divorced friends.  So I'm not going to spend a lot of time documenting Trump's atrocities tonight.

I will say just two things:

1. Congratulations, once again, to Karin C, on the worldwide debut of her song 'Too Loud to be Ignored'!  I was blown away by how great it was!
2. I'm a bit late it posting this, but here's a very good article detailing our most up-to-date (as of May 6) understanding of what the risks are for various activites.  TL;DR --- outside activities are mostly safe.  If you're going into an enclosed space, you should take care to WEAR A MASK, socially distance, and don't stay in the enclosed space any longer than necessary.

Trump continues to serve up large helpings of both evil and stupid every day.  No doubt I will have plenty of it to discuss tomorrow.

COVID19 Update - Day 65

US Tests: 10,341,775
US Cases: 1,407,507
US Deaths: 80,084
Worldwide Cases: 4,426,937
Worldwide Deaths: 301,370

Any discussion of Republican policy inevitably leads to a discussion of whether the Republican party is stupid or evil (the answer, of course, is both).  Today, we saw succinct illustrations of this in the case of Trump's head in the sand response to the coronavirus.

Here's stupid:

TRUMP: "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases." pic.twitter.com/tEX1uXQbmp

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 14, 2020

And here's evil:

President Donald Trump's public attitude towards the coronavirus has swung between downplaying its severity, patting himself on the back for a job well done, and pushing for the economy to reopen.

Sometimes, he has admitted that the pandemic could result in 100,000 American lives lost. 

More recently, Trump has been accused of pressurizing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to change how it counts COVID-19 fatalities so it generates a lower death toll.  

The president's recalcitrant attitude toward a strong nationwide response was caused by a fear that such moves would have a ripple effect that could send the stock market into a tizzy, the Financial Times reported.

Closer to home, Minnesota is gradually starting the process of re-opening its economy.

• Gov. Tim Walz announced this evening that Minnesota’s Stay at Home order will expire at 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, as scheduled.
• It will be replaced by a Stay Safe MN order encouraging people to stay home when possible but allowing small gatherings of 10 or fewer people. Retail businesses will also be able to open at 50 percent capacity if they have a plan to allow social distancing.
• Businesses where there is typically closer contact, such as bars, restaurants, salons and gyms, could reopen as early as June 1. The state will release additional guidance for those industries soon.

But --- um --- something doesn't seem quite right here ---

• Earlier today, the Minnesota Department of Health released updated COVID-19 modeling which indicated a higher statewide mortality rate than originally projected. It also showed social distancing has reduced face-to-face contact and disease transmission by only 59.5 percent, less than the initial 80 percent estimate.

I may need to re-think my smugness about the fact that I don't live in a state with a GOP governor hellbent on reopening the economy too soon.

COVID19 Update - Day 64

US Tests: 9,974,831
US Cases: 1,382,304
US Deaths: 78,343
Worldwide Cases: 4,342,565
Worldwide Deaths: 296,690

We all know the economy is suffering because of the virus.  Millions are newly-unemployed, and as a consequence, as many as 27 million Americans are at risk of losing their health insurance:

Soaring unemployment numbers could translate into nearly 27 million people losing their health insurance, according to a new report.

"Between March 1st and May 2nd, 2020, more than 31 million people had filed for unemployment insurance," notes the Kaiser Family Foundation report, which was released Wednesday.

"Actual loss of jobs and income are likely even higher, as some people may be only marginally employed or may not have filed for benefits."

Along with losing their jobs, Americans who previously had health insurance coverage through their employers will lose that, too.

Add this to list of ways in which Trump is failing America.  Millions of Americans are newly unable to afford health insurance --- during a pandemic, no less.  Thanks to Barack Obama and the Democrats who ran the government a decade ago, there's an obvious solution: open up federal exchanges so these families can enroll in Obamacare.

But of course, that would mean Americans would benefit from something Obama did.  So Trump would quite literally rather let people die than allow them to get health insurance:

“It is essential that we remove every barrier as quickly as possible to ensure those in our states and across the country are able to access the treatment they need,” they wrote in a Monday letter sent to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma.

“One of the most effective ways this can be done is by opening up a federal special enrollment period to give everyone the chance to enroll in a health plan that offers the coverage they need with access to any qualifying subsidies,” the governors added.

. . .

The Trump administration said at the end of March it would not reopen enrollment under the Affordable Care Act amid the pandemic despite calls from congressional Democrats.

But of course it's even worse than that.  Trump doesn't just want to take away health coverage from the newly-unemployed during the pandemic, he wants to take it away from EVERYONE.

Once again, I have no personal update.  My life continues to be as boring as paint.  Which is a good thing, under the current circumstances.

COVID19 Update - Day 63

US Tests: 9,637,930
US Cases: 1,360,705
US Deaths: 76,617
Worldwide Cases: 4,256,991
Worldwide Deaths: 291,487

I want to focus on a fundamental difference between the Democratic and Republican parties.  Today Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats introduced another coronavirus relief bill (four have been passed so far).  Highlights of the measure include:

• Roughly $1 trillion for state, local and tribal governments and territories
• An extension of unemployment benefits
• Another round of $1,200 stimulus payments
• $25 billion to support the US Postal Service
• $3.6 billion for election security for November's election
• $75 billion in mortgage relief
• $100 billion in rent assistance
• Increases in tax credits for lower-income Americans
• Rolling back a capital gains tax break for married couples earning more than $500,000/year

Unsurprisingly, congressional Republicans are rejecting this bill out of hand.  The article highlights the contrast between the parties, listing Republican priorities as:

• Protecting businesses which reopen from being legally liable should any of their employees get sick as a result of returning to work
• More tax cuts --- because Republicans are constitutionally incapable of passing any bill which does not contain tax cuts

Republicans say this bill is dead on arrival, and with a Republican-controlled Senate and Trump in the White House, they're absolutely right.  I'm highlighting the differences here so that in the months to come, people might recall that the Democrats had a better plan.

Who knows, people might even decide to vote for Democrats so that when January gets here, we might get some sane policy coming out of Washington.

COVID19 Update - Day 62

US Tests: 9,382,235
US Cases: 1,340,412
US Deaths: 75,107
Worldwide Cases: 4,168,247
Worldwide Deaths: 285,690

Do as I say, not as I do.  That's the message from the White House, where they are belatedly taking measures to prevent the spread of COVID19 now that several people within the administration have tested positive:

Most White House officials will be asked to wear masks or face coverings in public spaces on complex grounds, a move to prevent the novel coronavirus from spreading further inside the presidential compound, according to three administration officials with knowledge of a directive to be issued Monday.

Not surprisingly, when there's an immediate threat to himself and those around him, Trump demands that appropriate protective measures be enforced.  But in the same way that the gun-worshipping members of the Trump Death Cult insist on carrying their toys everywhere in spite of the fact that the military strictly controls guns on its bases, you can be sure that the requirement to wear a mask in the White House won't prevent more stupid stuff like --- well, like this:

 Dozens of angry Michiganders, fueled by conspiracy theories and disinformation about the coronavirus, are promoting violence and mobilizing armed rallies against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Facebook, in violation of the social media company’s policies.

. . .

Assassinating Whitmer is a common theme among members of the groups. Dozens of people have called for her to be hanged. 

“We need a good old fashioned lynch mob to storm the Capitol, drag her tyrannical ass out onto the street and string her up as our forefathers would have,” John Campbell Sr. wrote in a group called “People of Michigan vs. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer,” which had nearly 9,000 members as of Monday morning. 

Steve Doxsie had the same idea: “Drag that tyrant governor out to the front lawn. Fit her for a noose.” 

“Either President Trump sends in the troops or there is going to be a midnight lynching in Lansing soon,” Michael Smith chimed in. 

Others suggested she be shot, beaten, or beheaded.

They sound nice.

The phone calls are coming from inside the house.  In the past week, the first COVD19 case appeared in my parents' retirement community.  I was a bit confused about how this happened, until they explained to me that one of the residents actually left the community for surgery, and so presumably they contracted it at the hospital.

I've also had two friends in the past week with develop health concerns.  One of them live in Minnesota, and so was actually able to get a test --- which fortunately was negative!  But the other lives in Iowa, and so could not get a test.

Aside from that --- every day is just a grind.

COVID19 Update - Day 61

US Tests: 8,987,524
US Cases: 1,322,807
US Deaths: 74,270
Worldwide Cases: 4,101,060
Worldwide Deaths: 282,694

I'll start with your periodic reminder that on March 21, the Trump White House promised that 10 million coronavirus tests had been distributed, with an additional 17 million to be delivered by the end of that month.

7 weeks later, not quite one-third of the promised tests have been used.

That is all for today.

COVID19 Update - Day 60

US Tests: 8,709,630
US Cases: 1,301,095
US Deaths: 73,291
Worldwide Cases: 4,024,737
Worldwide Deaths: 279,313

The bad news keeps coming in such great volume, it's overwhelming.  For the first time in 3.5 years, Obama broke his silence to condemn Trump and his administration for several shortcomings.  Obama mentioned the divisiveness of the Trump administration, saying:

What we're fighting against is these long-term trends in which being selfish, being tribal, being divided, and seeing others as an enemy — that that has become a stronger impulse in American life . . .

It's part of the reason why the response to this global crisis has been so anemic, and spotty, and it would have been bad, even with the best of governments . . .

Obama also called Trump's response to the pandemic an "absolute chaotic disaster".

On a separate topic, Obama also criticized the Justice Department's decision to drop its prosecution of Mike Flynn, stating that this is how "democracies become autocracies" and that it puts the rule of law at risk.

In her response, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany demonstration the Trump administration's to laughable misinformation, stating that "President Trump’s coronavirus response has been unprecedented and saved American lives."

To be fair, she's half-right.  Trump's response has been unprecendented.  And at least one whistleblower, the former head of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Rick Barda, shares his inside perspective on just how badly Trump has mismanaged things:

"We see too many doctors and nurses now dying," Bright continued, beginning to tear up. "And I was thinking that we could have done more to get those masks and those supplies to them sooner. And if we had, would they still be alive today? It's a horrible thought to think about the time that passed where we could've done something and we didn't."

On Friday, the Office of Special Counsel made the "threshold determination" the HHS agency violated Bright under the Whistleblower Protection Act for removing him as director of BARDA. Bright has insisted he was ousted because of his refusal to promote the wide use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, two anti-malaria drugs Trump referred to as "game changer" vaccines.

Going back as far as late January, Bright sent emails warning colleagues in the federal government about the dire impending situations a coronavirus outbreak would have on the country. He claims the opinions of scientists were roundly rejected and dismissed by the Trump administration for weeks.

I'm not even done talking about Trump's malfeasance yet, because there are too many examples of it.  Like this story in the Washington Post, which is primarily about a manufacturer of N95 masks who approached the government in January about ramping up for the pandemic, only to be turned away.  But it contains this staggering nugget:

“We are the last major domestic mask company,” he wrote on Jan. 23. “My phones are ringing now, so I don’t ‘need’ government business. I’m just letting you know that I can help you preserve our infrastructure if things ever get really bad. I’m a patriot first, businessman second.”

In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant.

 Prison is too good for Trump.

COVID19 Update - Day 59

US Tests: 8,408,788
US Cases: 1,275,916
US Deaths: 71,762
Worldwide Cases: 3,938,080
Worldwide Deaths: 274,898

I want to focus on a very specific aspect of the pandemic tonight, and that concerns food insecurity.  In short, a lot of lower-income families simply don't have enough food.  And not surprisingly, that situation is more common among families with children:

By the end of April, more than one in five households in the United States, and two in five households with mothers with children 12 and under, were food insecure. In almost one in five households of mothers with children age 12 and under, the children were experiencing food insecurity.

We have seen extreme examples of this, like the line of thousands of cars waiting to get food from a food bank in San Antonio.  And we already know it's going to get worse, as the Corrupt Racist in Chief encourages states to reopen far too soon.

So I would like to use my tiny platform to encourage those who have the means to help out, ideally with a monetary donation.  Since food banks often have special agreements with grocery stores and the like, a monetary donation will usually do more good than using that same money to buy a bag of groceries to donate.

Ideally, you would donate to your local food shelf, but there are national organizations you can donate to as well.  There's Chefs for America, which purchases meals from restaurants and gives them to people in need, thus helping to keep the restaurants open and their workers employed during the pandemic.  And there's also Give Directly, which puts your donations in the hands of families who need food.

These and other charitable organizations are supported by While at Home, a site set up for the express purpose of helping to soften the economic blow of the virus.  Please help out however you can.

Besides that ask, I shall simply continue to scream into the void about how badly the Trump administration is mismanaging the response, and continue to gaze longingly at countries with competent leadership:

With the disease seemingly beaten back domestically, Hong Kong is now in a position to start switching emphasis to a strategy focused on border controls. With the pandemic still raging globally, the city can’t let its guard down entirely. And because Hong Kong is so small and dependent on international commerce, just opening up the domestic service economy can’t really save the city from serious economic problems.

But the city has a clearly articulated strategy that it calls “suppress and lift”: ease restrictions now when cases are at zero, but then clamp back down as necessary to push cases back down if they pop up.

Taiwan has also had no new cases for several days, and since April 6, all of Taiwan’s reported cases have stemmed from a single naval vessel’s goodwill mission to the island of Palau rather than community spread. New Zealand has not done quite this well, but the government believes it has successfully identified and isolated all of the country’s coronavirus cases and is lifting restrictions, on the claim that the virus has been “eliminated” in the country.

South Korea’s outbreak is now down to single-digit numbers of new cases per week, and a key test for the country is whether an anticipated surge of holiday travel this week to the island of Jeju (a major Korean tourist destination) will lead to a new wave, or if the peninsula can suppress spread of the disease. South Korean professional baseball also resumed this week, though without fans in the stands.

The U.S. could be doing better, but it would require: a) A president who is 'lava level mad' about the number of infections of deaths nationwide, not just about the fact that he personally has come into contact with infected people, and b) Citizens who are more concerned with the public health than they are with their desire to get their hair done, go to the tattoo parlor, or party with their friends.

COVID19 Update - Day 58

US Tests: 8,105,513

US Cases: 1,248,137

US Deaths: 70,002

Worldwide Cases: 3,836,215

Worldwide Deaths: 269,267

Trump continues to be horrible.  Even setting aside the non-COVID-related horribleness, there are almost too many stories to choose from.  Here's a quick sample of news items from today:

• Someone at the CDC leaked a set of guidelines businesses should meet before they consider reopening.  These guidelines were supposed to be released last Friday, but since they conflict with the Trump Death Cult's push to reopen everything, workers be damned, they got buried.  Agency scientists were told the guidance would never see the light of day.
• One of Trump's personal valets has tested positive for #COVID19, and reportedly Trump is "lava level mad" about it, and feels that his staff isn't doing all it can to protect him.  If only he were "lava level mad" about the other 1.2 million Americans who are infected.

There are few things stupider than the Republican war on masks.  As I mentioned Monday, there is good reason to believe that regularly wearing masks in public is the single most effective way ordinary Americans can help to defeat the pandemic --- which, presumably, everyone wants!  It is a very minor inconvenience, and if we all agree to bear it, we would be able to resume 90% (or more!) of our pre-pandemic activity.

And yet, the hostility some have at the prospect of wearing a mask in public ranges from indignant to homicidal.

So as a public service, I thought I would lay out the rationale for requiring everyone, everywhere, to wear masks for the duration of the pandemic.  And to make it more fun, I've decided to present it as a discussion with a hypothetical mask opponent.  Meet 'Hawk', a white man with a steadfast commitment to his understanding of the Constitution.

DB: Okay, Hawk, it's really quite simple.  Surely you agree that businesses like Costco have the right to enforce policies to protect their employees and customers --- like, for example, banning guns in their stores?

Hawk: No way, man!  I don't need Costco to worry about my safety.  The Constitution gives me the right to take my AR-15 with me anywhere I want!  In fact, Costco should be thanking me for bringing my rifle into their store.  The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun!

DB: Wow, okay, my mistake.  I forgot that Trump supporters are impervious to logic when it comes to their precious guns.  And that whole 'good guy with a gun' slogan is nonsense, but that's a discussion for another time.

Let's start again.  Would you agree that retailers have the right and responsibility to provide a safe environment for their workers and their customers?

Hawk: Sure.

DB: So for example --- even though we disagree about whether guns should be allowed in Costco, you DO agree that it's wrong for someone to walk into Costco and randomly open fire, right?

Hawk: Right on!  And that's why I need to have my rifle with me at all times!  Because a shooter could open up at any time, and so if he sees me with my weapon . . .

DB: Right, right, right, we're not talking about that right now.  So, good, we agree that randomly firing a gun into a crowd of people is wrong (small victories).

Hawk: Sure.

DB: So, if we could move away from guns --- by the same logic, it would be wrong for someone to, say, walk into Costco and release a poison gas into the store that would make a lot of people sick and possibly kill them?

Hawk: (pauses, thinks) Yeah ---

DB: And the same goes if someone released a biological agent into the store --- you, know like the kind of bioweapon it turns out Saddam Hussein didn't actually have?

Hawk: (laughs) Yeah ---

DB: Now, suppose we're not talking about a bad guy any more.  Suppose we're talking about someone who might be releasing a bioweapon into the store without even realizing it?  If there was a chance someone could accidentally release a biological agent that would make lots of people sick and/or kill them, then it would be completely appropriate for Costco to try to protect its employees and customers from it, right?

Hawk: That's a ridiculous hypothetical.  How can someone release a bioweapon in Costco without even knowing it?  That's, like, some real spy-novel shit right there.

DB: Maybe.  But if it were a real possibility that something like that could happen, then there's nothing wrong with Costco protecting people from it, right?

Hawk: Whatever, dude.  Okay, fine, yeah.  But that's got nothing to do with guns.

DB: So I just want to make sure we're in agreement here.  Retailers are within their rights to take measures to protect people from an unintentional release of a harmful biological agent?

Hawk: Sure.

DB: Even if it means requiring everyone to accept a minor inconvenience --- like how you have to go through a metal detector and take your shoes off to get on an airplane?

Hawk: God, I hate that.  I hate going through those lines.  I hate that I can't take my gun on a plane.

DB: Sure, it's annoying.  But we do it to keep everyone safe, right?

Hawk: Yeah.

DB: And it's fine for retailers to do the same thing.  In order to keep people safe, right?

Hawk: Sure.

DB: Especially if the inconvenience you have to deal with is less cumbersome than airport security?

Hawk: Sure!

DB: To protect people from a biological agent?

Hawk: Sure.

DB: Like a virus, for example?

Hawk: (broods)

DB: Seriously.  That's what they're doing.  They want everyone to wear a mask so that someone who is sick with coronavirus doesn't spread it around at their store.  Which could happen without the sick person even knowing it, since it's possible that as many as half of people infected with coronavirus are asymptomatic.

Hawk: That doesn't mean that I need to wear a mask, though!  I know I'm not sick!  I don't feel sick!

DB: Did you hear what I just said about asymptomatic carriers?  Do you know what 'asymptomatic' means?

Hawk: I don't care, man!  The only thing that stops a bad guy with coronavirus is a good guy with ---

DB: Thanks for your time, Hawk.

Seriously, folks.  The anti-mask hate is stupid, and it's deadly:

On March 25 one of his daughters gave him a face mask to wear at the plant, where he operated boxing and loading equipment near the entrance and was often the first person to greet arriving co-workers. “He was always so respectful,” a shiftmate says. Two days later, Benjamin told his kids a supervisor had ordered him to remove the mask because it was creating unnecessary fears among plant employees.

On Saturday, April 4, Benjamin called in sick. So few workers had shown up the day before that he’d had to do the work of three people, he told his family. By Monday his cough and fever were much worse. The next morning he could barely move. An ambulance took him to the hospital.

. . .

Benjamin was admitted to the intensive care unit and spent his work anniversary on a ventilator. He died on April 19. 

Masks are not the problem; the coronavirus is the problem. And masks are possibly the best solution we have.  We should be embracing the masks, not fighting them.

COVID19 Update - Day 57

US Tests: 7,759,771
US Cases: 1,217,771
US Deaths: 67,256
Worldwide Cases: 3,732,046
Worldwide Deaths: 261,517

We've already seen how Trump's incompetence costs lives.  But his corruption costs lives, too:

Dr. Jeffrey Hendricks had longtime manufacturing contacts in China and a line on millions of masks from established suppliers. Instead of encountering seasoned FEMA procurement officials, his information was diverted to a team of roughly a dozen young volunteers, recruited by the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and overseen by a former assistant to Mr. Kushner’s wife, Ivanka Trump.

. . .

As the federal government’s warehouses were running bare and medical workers improvised their own safety gear, Dr. Hendricks found his offer stalled. Many of the volunteers were told to prioritize tips from political allies and associates of President Trump, tracked on a spreadsheet called “V.I.P. Update,” according to documents and emails obtained by The New York Times. Among them were leads from Republican members of Congress, the Trump youth activist Charlie Kirk and a former “Apprentice” contestant who serves as the campaign chair of Women for Trump.

Trump allies also pressed FEMA officials directly: A Pennsylvania dentist, once featured at a Trump rally, dropped the president’s name as he pushed the agency to procure test kits from his associates.

Few of the leads, V.I.P. or otherwise, panned out, according to a whistle-blower memo written by one volunteer and sent to the House Oversight Committee. While Vice President Mike Pence dropped by the volunteers’ windowless command center in Washington to cheer them on, they were confused and overwhelmed by their task, the whistle-blower said in interviews.

When the pandemic came, and the lives of thousands of Americans were on the line, Trump's first thought was to grease up his campaign donors and those loyal to him --- NOT finding the people who would be most effective in providing the medical supplies which are needed.

Wear those masks, people!  Masks save lives!

COVID19 Update - Day 56

US Tests: 7,544,328
US Cases: 1,195,605
US Deaths: 65,307
Worldwide Cases: 3,662,101
Worldwide Deaths: 257,207

The Republican party is a death cult.  One day after learning that the CDC expects the number of cases and deaths to rise dramatically over the summer, Trump decided to give up and return to business as usual.

There is no evidence so far that, in the absence of a vaccine, the virus “will pass” in a way that allows the country to return to a pre-coronavirus “normal.” In fact, it’s the opposite. Trump’s own top scientists say they believe the virus will come back in the fall and may even prove to come back every season like the flu.

But the president argued that not reopening businesses also costs people their lives, in the form of drug overdoses and suicides. 

“People are dying the other way, too.” said Trump. “When you look at what’s happened with drugs, it goes up. When you look at suicides, I mean, take a look at what’s going on. People are losing their jobs. We have to bring it back and that’s what we’re doing.”

Despite the fact that Taiwan, Hong Kong, New Zealand and other nations have proven that the virus can be defeated if the nation is committed to social distancing and universal use of masks, Trump and the Republicans are ready to give up.  Probably because wearing a mask isn't as big and imposing as, say, an expensive, ineffective wall.  It isn't as manly and counterproductive as carrying an AR-15 everywhere.  And despite Republican efforts to whip up racist hatred of China, it doesn't really give Republicans an excuse to demonize non-whites.

It just saves lives.  And Republicans really don't care about saving lives:

Trump's mouthpieces at Fox News and elsewhere then began to parrot the same macabre and disturbing argument.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican, told Fox News: "Let's get back to living... And those of us that are 70-plus, we'll take care of ourselves."

Right-wing propagandist Glenn Beck told viewers of his BlazeTV show that Americans who are older should just go back to work and prepare to die: "Even if we all get sick, I would rather die than kill the country."

Mind you, these are Republican politicians who insist that they are 'pro-life'.  Yet they're willing to accept the deaths of thousands of Americans --- so far more than died in Korea --- as just the cost of doing business.

Because they don't want to require people to wear masks.

COVID19 Update - Day 55

US Tests: 7,285,178
US Cases: 1,173,257
US Deaths: 62,806
Worldwide Cases: 3,580,247
Worldwide Deaths: 251,365

Today was kind of a good news/bad news day.  Because early on, I saw this article, which has some truly good news!

Even though it will likely be ~18 months before a COVID19 vaccine is developed, there is research showing that wearing masks --- even basic, hand-sewn cloth masks like most people have access to --- will dramatically reduce transmission of the disease.  Consider, for example, the results in high-density countries like Hong Kong and Taiwan:

For example, in Hong Kong, only four confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 have been recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, despite high density, mass transportation, and proximity to Wuhan. Hong Kong’s health authorities credit their citizens’ near-universal mask-wearing as a key factor (surveys show almost 100 percent voluntary compliance). Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six.

So, if the angry members of the cult of Trump who insist on dressing up in riot gear and carrying their AR-15s to their state capitols would just wear a simple mask, we might be able to more or less fully reopen society --- exactly what they claim to want --- in 2 or 3 weeks.  But unfortunately, our government isn't requiring the use of masks nearly as forcefully as they should, and a small but determined segment of our society is actively fighting against it for reasons which can only be described as pathological selfishness (to be polite).

The models of Taiwan and Hong Kong clearly demonstrate that not only is it possible to defeat the virus, but that all it takes to do it is that we all accept the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask.  Remember this the next time some sanctimonious Trump-humper tells you that there are going to be deaths no matter what.

But now for the bad news.  Since it's almost certain that a critical mass of recalcitrant morons will insist on prioritizing their selfishness above the good of society, Americans will continue dying.  And it turns out that the CDC (and thus the Trump White House) not only know this, but that it will get much, much worse before it gets better:

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, slowing the spread of the virus, significant risks still remain. And reopening the economy will make matters worse.

It's sad but true.  American selfishness is literally killing people (not to mention the economy), and those in power are simply writing it off as acceptable losses, rather than doing the really-not-so-hard work to require everyone to wear a simple, cloth, non-surgical mask in public.

However, I can't control what others do.  I can only control what I do.  And I'm going to buy some more cloth masks.  I would encourage everyone who accidentally stumbled over this post to do the same.  My mask supplier is Sleeping Baby Productions.

COVID19 Update - Day 54

US Tests: 7,053,366
US Cases: 1,152,006
US Deaths: 61,868
Worldwide Cases: 3,504,129
Worldwide Deaths: 247,326

I had my weekly Zoom meeting with some college alumni.  It was scheduled to last for 3 hours, but ran for nearly 5 hours, because we ended up playing this epic game of Cards Against Humanity online.  It was fun.

If you want to play Cards Against Humanity online (called Remote Insensitivity on this site, for copyright reasons) --- or a growing list of other games, including Checkers, Backgammon, Crazy Eights, Euchre, or any game that can be played with a standard 52-card deck, you can do so here:

http://playingcards.io/

I'm not going to post anything else tonight.  Trump is still terrible, he's clearly given up on fighting the virus, and instead has decided to pursue a strategy of convincing the public that 62,000+ deaths (and counting) is no big deal.

He's a monster.

COVID19 Update - Day 53

US Tests: 6,816,347
US Cases: 1,125,719
US Deaths: 60,710
Worldwide Cases: 3,428,114
Worldwide Deaths: 243,829

This update is a bit late, because my 'quarantine' day has just been jam-packed.  Although the pandemic has decimated the economy generally, it has been a boon to certain industries.  For example, certain recreation industries.  I took my bike in to the local bike shop to get a tune-up, because I haven't ridden it in years.  But as it turns out, they were scheduling appointments out to May 25, because they have so much business!

So after taking my bike home and taking a short ride, my son called me up to ask if he and his friend could come over and shoot baskets.  And while I'm not excited about my son bringing a non-family member to the house, I feel like I need to cut him some slack.  I think my kids have handled the past 6 weeks of quarantine very well, so one day of hanging out with one friend isn't that big a deal.

As it turns out, my son invited me to his mom's house for dinner (I insisted that he ask her first).  And then after dinner at my ex's house, I hosted a 3-hour Zoom call which just concluded.

Phew!

I do worry that people are starting to relax their diligence about the lockdown, however, and not just people who are throwing a temper tantrum about it.  Anecdotally, in addition to hanging out with my son's friend, I also rode my bike past a house with lots of cars parked outside --- it seems likely that a large gathering was taking place in violation of social distancing.

And this is in addition to reports of other large gatherings around the country.

In national news, the drastic and criminal mismanagement of medical supplies continues unabated and underreported:

The coronavirus pandemic had unleashed a bonanza for untested contractors riding a wave of unprecedented demand and scarcity of everything from hand sanitizer to ICU beds. So far, the administration of President Donald Trump has handed out at least $5.1 billion in no-bid contracts to address the pandemic, federal purchasing data shows. The VA, far more than any other agency, appeared to be awarding large contracts to little-known vendors in search of the personal protective equipment that’s pitted local, state and federal agencies against one another.

Given that Trump and the Republicans have basically given up on combating the virus, Dr. Michael Osterholm forsees the virus continuing to wreak havoc on our society and economy until we reach herd immunity at around 60%-70% of the population --- which will take about 2 years:

During an interview on CNN, Osterholm explained a report he and his colleagues at the university had released early in the day, which found that the virus will likely keep spreading for 18 to 24 months until it reaches the high threshold of COVID-19 cases needed to create a herd immunity.

“This is going to continue to do that until 60% or 70% of the population has been infected,” the doctor told CNN anchor Jim Sciutto.

Osterholm warned that the pandemic is a “rolling situation” throughout the world and that New York, which currently has the highest number of cases in the U.S. by far, won’t be the only area to suffer an explosion of infections.

“Expect many more New Yorks to occur,” he said. “It’s very likely they will.”

So --- continue to hunker down, and get real comfy.  And vote for all the Democrats on the ballot in November.  That should result in a functional government just 8 months from now, which might be able to clean up Trump's mess in a reasonable time frame.

COVID19 Update - Day 52

US Tests: 6,551,810
US Cases: 1,095,681
US Deaths: 59,059
Worldwide Cases: 3,127,126
Worldwide Deaths: 213,792

Data collection is an inexact science, as we can see from observing that the worldwide number of cases somehow dropped from 3,249,667 yesterday to 3,127,126 today.  I'm not sure what to make of this --- perhaps someone somewhere decided that more 100,000 of the cases were false positives?

Whatever the reason, as it currently stands, more than 35% of worldwide COVID19 cases are in the U.S.  Consider that one week ago, the U.S. accounted for only a bit less than 32% of worldwide cases, and one month ago, only ~22.6% of worldwide COVID19 cases involved people in the U.S.  Not only are things still moving in the wrong direction, but the U.S. is clearly falling behind relative to the rest of the world.

Since it's Friday, I'm going to keep this light, in every sense of the word.  By now, I'm sure most people know that when Mike Pence visited the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, he violated protocol and put everyone at risk by refusing to wear a mask:

Here we see pandemic 'Czar' Mike Pence, no doubt explaining the importance of proper safety precautions to people smarter who are than he is.

Later, his wife Karen explained that the reason Pence didn't wear a mask is that he didn't know it was required --- which seems a bit of a stretch.  As it happens, I work for a health care provider, and my company is very clear about when masks AREN'T required in one of their clinics or hospitals.  Maybe one of these exceptions covers Pence?

• Does he have trouble breathing?  Probably not, since he's traveling on official business.
• Is he unconscious, incapacitated, or otherwise unable to remove a mask without assistance?  Don't think so.
• Is he a child under the age of 2?  Well, in certain respects ---

This has been fun.  But of course, we all know the real reason he didn't wear a mask --- because that would have looked like a show weakness in the eyes of his boss.

And let's be honest --- protecting one's image is FAR more important to chuds like Trump and Pence than, you know, protecting public safety.